SCHWARTZ RECESSION CONCLUSION . Tuesday, July 28 th , 2009 . Ok, after much consideration, here’s my conclusion as to what unfolds going forward. The economy struggles through but survives the next few years. About 20% of Americans have a very, very difficult time out of work and out of hope but...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
07-28-2009
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Historical Perspectve, Federal Reserve, Extended Bear Markets, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Recession, Financial Crisis, Bear Market Legs, History, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Big Picture, Bear Markets, Depression, Big Picture View, consumer retrenchment, Great Recession, depression within a depression
One of my most significant learning experiences came from a basic forecasting mistake. Back in 1998, I looked at 40 years of documented evidence that 50% of all large programming projects ended up coming in late. That set of data was consistent over all industries and over decades. I checked it out with...
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John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
02-09-2009
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Filed under: China, GDP, Recession, Depression, Financial Crisis, Growth, GaveKal, Platform Companies, David Ricardo, Joseph Schumpeter, Solow Growth Model, Johann Heinrich von Thunen, Ricardian Growth, Schumpeterian Growth, Louis Gave, Harry Browne
This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
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John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
12-15-2008
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Filed under: The Fed, Credit Crisis, Housing Crisis, Recession, The Dollar, Gary Shilling, Diversification, Consumer Debt, Depression, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Consumer Confidence, Bank Failures, Bailout, Jobs, Commodities, TARP, Commercial Real Estate
IN THIS ISSUE: Latest Grim Numbers On The US Economy The Latest On The Government Bailouts Fed Announces The Mother Of All Bailouts Troubling Aspects Of The Fed's Latest Bailout Fighting A "Debt-Deflation" At Any Cost Introduction The economy, the financial crisis and government bailouts...
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Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
12-09-2008
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Filed under: Gary D. Halbert, The Fed, GDP, Subprime, Recession, Consumer Confidence, Ben Bernanke, Deficit, Depression, Stratfor, Bailout, Economy, Henry Paulson, Deflation
REVIEWING THE 1930s . The Principle of Knowing History . Let me get down on paper a bit about President Hoover (1928 to 1932) and President Roosevelt and the 1930s after nearly finishing up THE FORGOTTEN MAN (2007) by Amity Shlaes. Again, let me recommend you get yourself a copy as today’s happenings...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
11-20-2008
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Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Investing Strategies, Socialism, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Government Intervention, The Big Picture, Recession, Recessions, History, Stock Market, Capitalism, Big Picture, Economic Trends, Bear Markets, Economics, 1932, 1929, Depression, Government, The Forgotten Man, Amity Shlaes
IN THIS ISSUE: The Latest $700 Billion Bailout Package What Could Go Wrong? Potentially A Lot What Could Go Right, If We're Lucky? What Would Happen To The Profits, If Any? A "Main Street" Backlash To Come? Introduction Like it or not, members of the House and Senate, with the approval...
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Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
09-30-2008
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Filed under: Election Issues, Gary D. Halbert, The Fed, Credit Crisis, Subprime, Economic Forecast, Recession, U.S. Economy, Politics, Ben Bernanke, Depression, Bailout, Financial Crisis, Henry Paulson
UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Witten Friday, June 20th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. Looked to me like yesterday’s stock market rally was a knee-jerk reaction to China announcing it was going to raise oil prices by 17%. Crude dove on the news while stocks jumped. But if one thinks it through, is China raising...
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Principles of the Stock Market
by
Richard Schwartz
on
06-20-2008
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Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, China View, Investing Strategies, Head & Shoulders, The Coming China Wars, Keys to the Market, Dow Transports, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Global Investing, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Oil, Fan Principle, Mama Bears, Papa Bears, Government Intervention, Global Trend, Recession, Trends, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Globalization, 1974, 1973, Global Warming, Energy Conservation, Manufacturing, Consumer Spending, Recessions, Bear Market Rally, Intermediate Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Global View, Global Economy, Developing Countries, Stock Market, Capitalism, Gasoline, Big Picture, Trendlines, Energy, Energy Savings, Energy Controls, Bear Markets, Chart Patterns, Crude Oil, Broadening Top, To Be Rich is Glorious, 1932, Subsidies, 1929, Depression
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. The US Economy - What Kind Of Recession? 2. Fed Puts Real Skin (Our Skin) In The Game 3. J.P. Morgan Quintuples The Bear Deal - Why? 4. Market Implications - More Uncertainty 5. Are We There Yet (Market Bottom)? 6. Getting Out Is Easy - When To Get back In? 7. Conclusions - What To...
Dear Reader , It used to be of no little pride in the small New England town where Casey Research is headquartered that school went forward, no matter the weather. Hail, 8-foot-high snow drifts, ice rain and, should they have occurred hereabouts (which they didn't), I am fairly sure that even hurricanes...
This week's Outside the Box is going to be a little different. I am going to write about the extraordinary action by the NY Fed to foster the Bear Stearns deal with JP Morgan, and give you three brief notes from Michael Lewitt of Harch Capital Management and Bob Eisenbeis (former executive vice-president...
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John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-17-2008
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Filed under: Inflation, Credit Crisis, Liquidity Crisis, Michael Lewitt, Economic Forecast, Recession, Interest Rates, Consumer Debt, Economy, Depression, JP Morgan, Bear Sterns
IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Revisiting Stratfor's Previous Forecast 2. Stratfor's Latest Economic Outlook 3. Recession, Maybe - But No Depression 4. My Analysis And Conclusions Introduction There is a growing chorus that we are already in a full-blown recession, even though we'll have to wait several...
Posted to
Forecasts & Trends
by
Gary D. Halbert
on
03-11-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Presidential Race, Gary D. Halbert, Economic Forecast, Recession, Inflation, Politics, Deficit, Depression, Oil, Stratfor, Interest Rates