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I was just in Greece with Christian Menegatti, and we had a good conversation about the piece he has sent along as today’s OTB . The case Christian and his coauthor David Nowakowski lay out regarding an incipient turnaround in US deleveraging (and therefore in economic growth prospects) is in some...
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This week we look at a report called “Working Out of Debt,” about debt and deleveraging, from the McKinsey Global Institute. This is a well-done summary of their longer paper, which has been updated, called “Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth.” I discussed...
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As my good friend Gary Shilling says, in leading off his piece on 2012 investment themes, which is this week’s OTB, “This year is just the first step in the long-run journey that will continue to be dominated by The Age of Deleveraging” – which also just happens to be the title of Gary’s latest book...
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Before we get into this week’s outstanding Outside the Box, I want to comment on QE2 and the efforts by some Republican economists to urge legislators to get involved to stop it (see the front page of Monday’s Wall Street Journal). That pushes my comfort zone a little too much. First, I am...
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The Chances of a Double Dip Houston, My Book, and New York I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a...
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When the Fed Stops the Music Who Wants the Old Maid? It's the Deleveraging, Stupid! London, Monaco, and Zurich Last week we delved into the uncertainties that face us and that make forecasting for 2010 problematical. Will the government actually increase taxes as much as they say, with unemployment...
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It's All About Deleveraging Commercial Woes The Lights Of Myanmar A Lively 2010 and Buying Stocks This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes...
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The Statistical Recovery, Part Three Capacity Utilization Set to Rise A Real Estate Green Shoot? The Deleveraging Society Some Thoughts on Secular Bear Markets Weddings and Ten Years of Thoughts From the Frontline This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that...
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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-16-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, China, Housing Crisis, Deflation, GDP, Consumer Spending, Consumer Price Index, Household Wealth, Gary Shilling, Consumer Debt, Consumer Saving, Financial Regulation, Automotive Sector, Deleveraging, Employment, Baby Boomers, Retirement, Eastern Europe, Exports, Protectionism, Savings
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Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and the Stimulus Effect Muddle Through on Hold Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers Central Bankers of the World, Unite! Predictions 2009 La Jolla, Bermuda, and Europe Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
01-10-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Oil, Employment, Housing, Consumer Spending, Economic Forecast, Economic Outlook, Deflation, Bailout, Consumer Confidence, Deleveraging, Richard Russell, 2009, Forecast
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We are clearly not having as much fun taking off leverage as we had putting it on, or at least the vast majority are not. This week in Outside the Box we look at some very thought-provoking insights from my good friend Paul McCulley, who helps us think about how we got here and what will be the end point...
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Leverage Is an 8 Letter Word If Loans Are So Cheap, Why Don't They Sell? Deflation and Helicopters: Time for a Review Commercial Property Loans Start to Haunt the Banks Warren Makes a Bet Thanksgiving, Moving, and New Orleans Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
11-21-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Ben Bernanke, Consumer Price Index, Credit, Warren Buffet, Credit Crisis, Housing Crisis, Deflation, Deleveraging, Commercial Property, Goldman Sachs
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Can the credit crisis get any worse? In this week's Outside the Box my London partner Niels Jensen shows that it indeed can. Banks, and mainly European banks, have large exposure to emerging market debt of all types through both sovereign, corporate and individual loans. Just as banks have had to...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
11-10-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Credit Crisis, Hedge Funds, Recession, The Dollar, Niels Jensen, Credit Default Swaps, Deleveraging, Absolute Return Partners, Yen, Europe, European Banks, Emerging Economies, Iceland
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The Problems of Deleveraging 1.2 Million Jobs and Counting Be Careful of Geeks Bearing Recovery Data Back to 1982 New York, Birthdays, and Moving In general, we consider it a good thing to save money and to "owe no man anything save love." But what happens when a debt-happy society wakes up...
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I have often commented about the problem of personal savings. We worry about the lack of savings here in the US, but many do not understand that if everyone started to save 5% of there income immediately that it would seriously impact consumer spending, pushing the US into a recession. It is a paradox...