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1. Household Wealth Hits New All-time High 2. Great News But the Economy is Still Sluggish 3. US Economy “Growth Deficit” Hits $1.31 Trillion 4. February Employment Report Better But Not Good Overview The Federal Reserve announced last Thursday that US household net worth reached a new record...
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Demographics – An Upside Down World The Twin Dangers of Debt and Deficits Deleveraging and Deflation – They Are Just No Fun We Are in a Code Red World China, Europe, and Japan – Crises in Waiting Japan May Be a Moose in Search of a Windshield Some Thoughts from Dubai It seems I'm...
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I was just in Greece with Christian Menegatti, and we had a good conversation about the piece he has sent along as today’s OTB . The case Christian and his coauthor David Nowakowski lay out regarding an incipient turnaround in US deleveraging (and therefore in economic growth prospects) is in some...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Gross Domestic Product Disappoints Again 2. Is Our Massive Debt Preventing Economic Growth? 3. Understanding How “Debt Deleveraging” Works 4. Conclusions – Deleveraging Will Continue Gross Domestic Product Disappoints Again Before we get into the issue of deleveraging...
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This week we look at a report called “Working Out of Debt,” about debt and deleveraging, from the McKinsey Global Institute. This is a well-done summary of their longer paper, which has been updated, called “Debt and deleveraging: Uneven progress on the path to growth.” I discussed...
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As my good friend Gary Shilling says, in leading off his piece on 2012 investment themes, which is this week’s OTB, “This year is just the first step in the long-run journey that will continue to be dominated by The Age of Deleveraging” – which also just happens to be the title of Gary’s latest book...
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Before we get into this week’s outstanding Outside the Box, I want to comment on QE2 and the efforts by some Republican economists to urge legislators to get involved to stop it (see the front page of Monday’s Wall Street Journal). That pushes my comfort zone a little too much. First, I am...
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The Chances of a Double Dip Houston, My Book, and New York I am on a plane (yet again) from Zurich to Mallorca, where I will meet with my European and South American partners, have some fun, and relax before heading to Denmark and London. With the mad rush to finish my book (more on that later) and a...
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My annual conversation with the Market Strategist/Private Client Group for Stifel Nicholas and Chief Investment Officer with Washington Crossing Advisors includes the prospects of an economic handoff to the private sector and a sustainable recovery, the risks of yet another jobless recovery, and the...
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Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the bear market low in stocks and the subsequent bull rally. Therefore, a review of where we were, where we are now, and, importantly, where we are likely to be headed, seems to be in order. To refresh your memory, let’s go back to March of last year...
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When the Fed Stops the Music Who Wants the Old Maid? It's the Deleveraging, Stupid! London, Monaco, and Zurich Last week we delved into the uncertainties that face us and that make forecasting for 2010 problematical. Will the government actually increase taxes as much as they say, with unemployment...
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It's All About Deleveraging Commercial Woes The Lights Of Myanmar A Lively 2010 and Buying Stocks This is the season when pundits feel compelled to make annual forecasts. I will make mine, as I traditionally do, in the first letter of January. But already we have seen a wide range of forecasted outcomes...
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"Hope always seems to spring eternal in liquidity-driven financial markets. That is very much the case today in the aftermath of the biggest liquidity injection in modern history." So wrote Stephen Roach, Chairman, Morgan Stanley Asia in today's FT. And liquidity is where my interview with...
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The Statistical Recovery, Part Three Capacity Utilization Set to Rise A Real Estate Green Shoot? The Deleveraging Society Some Thoughts on Secular Bear Markets Weddings and Ten Years of Thoughts From the Frontline This week we further explore why this recovery will be a Statistical Recovery, or one that...
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My interview with the Chief Market Strategist with the wealth management firm, RDM Financial Group, includes the prospects of a sub-par economic recovery due to rising US consumer savings, deleveraging, increased regulation, increased risk aversion, the structural advantages of emerging economies over...