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Killing the Goose What Were We Thinking? Let's Play Turn It Around Detroit, the Red Sox and the Yankees, and Traveling Too Much Peggy Noonan, maybe the most gifted essayist of our time, wrote a few weeks ago about the vague concern that many of us have that the monster looming up ahead of us has...
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Elements of Deflation, Part 3 Outrageous! - Artificial Deflation! If You Are in a Hole, Stop Digging! The Hole in the FDIC How Can Just Four Stocks Be 40% of the NYSE Volume? New Orleans and a Mauldin Migration to Europe This week we continue to look at what powers the forces of deflation. As I continue...
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Elements of Deflation, Part 2 The Velocity Factor Y=MV Sir, I Have Not Yet Begun to Print There Are No Good Choices Washington DC, San Diego, and New Orleans, etc. Just as water is formed by the basic elements hydrogen and oxygen, deflation has its own fundamental components. Last week we started exploring...
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The Elements of Deflation The Failure of Economics The Super Trend Puzzle Final Demand and Income Unemployment Was NOT a Green Shoot Washington, DC, San Diego, and Johannesburg As every school child knows, water is formed by the two elements of hydrogen and oxygen in a very simple formula we all know...
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Today's offering for this week's Outside the Box starts off with a quote from Titus Maccius Plautus: "I am a rich man as long as I don't pay my creditors." Even 2200 years ago, it seems that problems of credit were an issue. I talked last Friday about the US being faced with a number...
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An Uncomfortable Choice What Were We Thinking? Frugality is the New Normal And Then We Face the Real Problem The Teenagers Are in Control Choose Wisely Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, New Orleans, Detroit, and More We have arrived at this particular economic moment in time by the choices we have made, which...
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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
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There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst and for the conversation to be all about...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
07-13-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Deflation, Japan, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, Bonds, Economic Forecast, Velocity, Fiscal Policy, Economic Data, Debt, NBER
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There are those who sweat over every decision, worrying about how it will affect their lives and investments. Then there is the school of thought that we should focus on the big decisions. I am of the latter school. 85% of investment returns are a result of asset class allocations and only 15% come from...
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There is a reason I call this column Outside the Box. I try to get material that forces us to think outside our normal comfort zones and challenges our common assumptions. And this week's letter does just that. I have made the comment more than once that is it unusual for two major bubbles to burst...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
04-20-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Inflation, Deflation, Japan, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, Bonds, Economic Theory, Hoisington Management, Government Debt, M2
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What happens when inflation once again returns. As this week's Outside the Box writer, James Montier, writes, we may want to start thinking now about inflation insurance and he mentions a few ways to do so. But this letter is a must read for his bringing to light a speech by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-24-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Inflation, Deflation, Japan, GDP, James Montier, Gold, Insurance, Great Depression, Inflation Swaps, Societe Generale, Sovereign CDS, Dividend Swaps, TIPS, Ben Bernanke
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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-16-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, China, Housing Crisis, Deflation, GDP, Consumer Spending, Consumer Price Index, Household Wealth, Gary Shilling, Consumer Debt, Consumer Saving, Financial Regulation, Automotive Sector, Deleveraging, Employment, Baby Boomers, Retirement, Eastern Europe, Exports, Protectionism, Savings
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The Endgame Employment Numbers Are Worse Than Posted Aye, Captain, I'm Giving Her All I've Got! Problem #1: Deflation Problem #2: Pushing on a String The Muddle Through Middle Conversations With John Deflation? Stimulus? Deleveraging? Recession? A soft depression? A return to a bull market? With...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
01-17-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Employment, GDP, Debt, Economic Forecast, Muddle Through, Economic Crisis, Deflation, TARP, Obama, Pushing on a String, Stimulus
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Forecast 2009: Deflation, Deleveraging, and the Stimulus Effect Muddle Through on Hold Lies, Damned Lies, and Government Unemployment Numbers Central Bankers of the World, Unite! Predictions 2009 La Jolla, Bermuda, and Europe Where are we headed in 2009? We will explore that in detail over the next few...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
01-10-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Oil, Employment, Housing, Consumer Spending, Economic Forecast, Economic Outlook, Deflation, Bailout, Consumer Confidence, Deleveraging, Richard Russell, 2009, Forecast
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There is an ongoing debate on the current nature of the economic environment and what should the response be by government. Today's Outside the Box by Paul McCulley takes up one view, arguing that we need a federal response and stimulus package to protect the overall economy and save capitalism from...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
01-06-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Deflation, Politics, Ben Bernadke, Paul McCulley, Government, Pimco, Bailout, TARP, Economic Crisis, Welfare, Socialism, Minsky