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I debated with myself about what to send as this week's Outside the Box. I have decided on a recent short but important post from my friend David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors. He calls it "I'm Worried." There are some very thought-provoking ideas...
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The Center Cannot Hold Where Is My Return to the Mean? The High Cost of Leaving Some Quick Thoughts on the Keystone XL Pipeline Look Over My Shoulder for Forecast 2012 LA, NYC, Hong Kong, and Singapore Turning and turning in the widening gyre The falcon cannot hear the falconer; Things fall apart; the...
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I have been reading and talking with Simon Hunt for a long time. He is a very thoughtful Brit who spends a lot of time in China and thinks about copper and commodities and cycles. He has enough seasoning to have seen a few cycles himself. This piece summarizes rather well the view that he has expressed...
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Today’s Outside the Box is from an old friend, but one who is new to my readers. Jason Hsu is a partner at Research Affiliates and helped create the Fundamental Indexes with Rob Arnott. Starting at Cal Tech, he went on to a PhD in economics, and is now a professor at UCLA and teaches in China and Taiwan...
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The Last Half But It's More Than the Deficit Not Everyone Can Run a Surplus Pity the Greeks The Competitive Currency Devaluation Raceway Amsterdam, Malta, Zurich, Mallorca, Denmark, and London There are a number of economic forces in play in today's world, not all of them working in the same...
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The Last Chapter Let's Look at the Rules Six Impossible Things Killing the Goose Home and Then Europe This week you will get a kind of preview as this week's letter. I am desperately trying to finish the first draft of my book and am one chapter away from having that draft. I have promised my...
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Be Careful for What You Wish GDP = C + I + G + (X-M) The View From Europe Under the Tuscan Sun "Everyone" is upset with the level of fiscal deficits being run by nearly every developed country. And with much justification. The levels of fiscal deficits are unsustainable and threaten to bring...
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Six Impossible Things Delta Force Reduce your Deficits! Pity the Greeks Should the US Bail Out European Banks? Italy at Last! Alice laughed. "There's no use trying," she said" One can't believe impossible things." "I daresay you haven't had much practice," said...
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Is This a Recovery? This Time is Different The End Game Some Good News on Unemployment The Effects of a Tax Increase The Health Chair, Phoenix, San Diego, and New York Last week I wrote a letter to my kids trying to explain what Greece meant to them. Reader Ken V wrote: "Great letter, John. Now...
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Today I am sitting listening to Ralph Merkle lecture on nanotechnology, part of a 9-day-long series of lectures on how accelerating change in technologies of all types will affect our world. 15-hour days and intense discussions are stretching my brain, but I still have to make sure you get your Outside...
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When I was at Rice University, so many decades ago, I played a lot of bridge. I was only mediocre, but enjoyed it. We had a professor, Dr. Culbertson, who was a bridge Life Master at an early age. He was single and lived in our college, playing bridge with us almost every night. He was a master of the...
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The Present Contains All Possible Futures The Ugly Unemployment Numbers Argentinian Disease The Austrian Solution The Eastern European Solution Japanese Disease The Glide Path Option Philadelphia, Orlando, and Phoenix The present contains all possible futures. But not all futures are good ones. Some...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
11-06-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Japan, Employment, GDP, Debt, Economic Theory, Deficit, Eastern Europe, Taxes, Government Debt, Argentina, Austria
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Catching Argentinian Disease? The Ascent of Money The Independence of the Fed Threatened A Few Quick Thoughts on the Dollar, GDP, and the Recession Uruguay, Philadelphia, Orlando, and then... I have been in South America this week, speaking nine times in five days, interspersed with lots of meetings...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
10-30-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Recession, Inflation, GDP, Dollar, Deficit, Niall Ferguson, Brazil, Hyperinflation, Argentina, The Ascent of Money
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Killing the Goose What Were We Thinking? Let's Play Turn It Around Detroit, the Red Sox and the Yankees, and Traveling Too Much Peggy Noonan, maybe the most gifted essayist of our time, wrote a few weeks ago about the vague concern that many of us have that the monster looming up ahead of us has...
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There is a debate in academic circles on the lessons of the current economic crisis. While most ivory tower debates are of little concern to our daily affairs, this debate should concern you, as it will inform those who hold central bank and political power. Remember, there is no playbook of rules for...