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Two weeks ago I wrote about the current debate over the 2010 paper by Ken Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart (hereinafter referred to as RR) on the correlation between debt and GDP growth. I said that the most important part of their work, which is the construction of an enormous database on debt and financial...
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An Infinite Amount of Money Et Tu, Italy? Moving, Argentina, and Sonoma The three major blocs of the developed world are careening toward a debt-fueled denouement that will play out over years rather than in a single moment. And contrary to some opinion, there is no certain ending. There are multiple...
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Who's Got the Map? Monetization – A Rose by Any Other Name Super Mario: Whatever It Takes The New Policy Implications of the Irish Deal Currency Skirmishes Toxic Debt Scare A Special Invite My Conference, Palm Springs, and Vagabond Shoes Lord Melchett: "Farewell, Blackadder [hands him...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. How Much Did the Economy Slow in the 4Q? 2. US Debt Crisis – I’ve Been Wrong For Years 3. BCA: Debt Supercycle Likely to End in 3-5 Years 4. Breakdown of the $16+ Trillion National Debt 5. The Debt-to-GDP Ratio & Why It Matters 6. Interest on the National Debt is a Growing...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. More Americans Want Gun Control After Sandy Hook 2. Obama Unveils Sweeping New Gun Controls 3. How To Play The Upcoming Debt Battles 4. “Legacy” – Smoothing Out Returns & Reducing Risk 5. The Legacy “Core” Portfolio Today’s Overview In last week’s...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Yes, Mr. President, There Is A Spending Problem! 2. Lots of Disgusting Pork In The Fiscal Cliff Bill 3. Another Debt Ceiling Battle Looms In February 4. Obama Could Resort To The 14 th Amendment 5. The Trillion Dollar Coin – Haven’t Heard About This? 6. “Continuing...
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In This Issue. * Debt ceiling debate shifts into high gear... * Retail sales slow but steady in the US... * Technical factors call for an increase in the euro... * Precious metals continue to rebound... And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts! The debt ceiling debate kicks off in a big way.....
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Unsustainability and Transition One Bubble to Rule Them All The Year of the Windshield Godzilla Redux: Disaster A or Disaster B France Is the New Greece US: The Crisis Games Entitlement Unsustainability London, Athens, Geneva, Toronto, and New York “There are decades when nothing happens and there...
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In This Issue. * Currencies & metals continue to recover. * Krona gets sold on Riksbank minutes. * A$ weakens on Trade deficit widening. * Racing to the debt ceiling. And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts! Oil Fuels Petrol Currency Rally. Good day. And a Tom Terrific Tuesday to you! It...
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In This Issue. * A sticky question... * Budget negotiations stall... * BOJ to announce more stimulus... * Gold and Silver reverse... And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts! Is all debt bad??? Good day. I was met with the above question as I walked through the door last night. As I came home...
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In This Issue. * ECB & Bundesbank pull rug from under the euro. * Relative calm over Eurozone is lifted, again. * Sandy to affect jobs report. * The debt ceiling revisited. And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts! A Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good day. And a Happy Friday to one and all! I have...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. What is the Debt Limit & Why Do We Have It? 2. What Happens if We Don’t Raise the Debt Ceiling? 3. Is It Time to Abolish the Debt Ceiling? 4. Two Critical, Unnerving Battles Lie Ahead 5. Deficit Tops $1 Trillion For 4 th Straight Year 6. Wishing You All A HAPPY THANKSGIVING...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. Gross Domestic Product Disappoints Again 2. Is Our Massive Debt Preventing Economic Growth? 3. Understanding How “Debt Deleveraging” Works 4. Conclusions – Deleveraging Will Continue Gross Domestic Product Disappoints Again Before we get into the issue of deleveraging...
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IN THIS ISSUE: 1. National Debt Tops Record $16 Trillion 2. Obama’s Downward Spiral For America 3. Does Obama Want the Economy to Improve? 4. US to Hit Debt Ceiling Limit in December Overview The US national debt topped $16 trillion last week, and it was almost as if no one paid attention. At the...
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How Down Can Be Up If You Create the Rules The Fed to the Rescue? The Correlation Between Government Size and Growth Debt Be Not Proud Debt Overhangs: Past and Present Should the Fed Give Us QE3? Webinars, Chicago, Palo Alto, Atlanta, New York "In the financial markets, the current economic cycle...