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Unsustainability and Transition One Bubble to Rule Them All The Year of the Windshield Godzilla Redux: Disaster A or Disaster B France Is the New Greece US: The Crisis Games Entitlement Unsustainability London, Athens, Geneva, Toronto, and New York “There are decades when nothing happens and there...
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It is a lazy summer day here in Texas, and the market and investment news front is rather quiet as well. But that will change before too long. We should enjoy the relative calm while we can, because Europe will soon be back in full crisis mode, coming off the summer. In today's Outside the Box we'll...
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We have been assaulted with economic news of all sorts, from every corner of the globe, while trying to watch the Olympics and while we would rather be enjoying summer and decompressing (at least in the Northern hemisphere). But the data keeps coming. My friend John Silvia, the Chief Economist of Wells...
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It seems like the whole world is expecting Ben and Mario to ride in and save the day with yet more stimulus. But to what effect, I wonder. Is a short-term rise in the market a cure for the basic disease of too much debt? And, as today’s Outside the Box hilariously points out, it can even make things...
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There Is Gambling in the House? I Am Shocked… Opacity and Credit Default Swaps No Access for Spain Denver, Maine, and Carlsbad Rick: How can you close me up? On what grounds? Captain Renault: I'm shocked, shocked to find that gambling is going on in here! – From the classic scene in...
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The relationship between high total public debt and interest rates is controversial (to some); and in today’s Outside the Box Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management tackle the subject head-on, in their “Quarterly Review and Outlook” for Q2 2012. They bring...
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The Seen and the Unseen The Lion in the Grass Black Swan or Hidden Lion? The Lions of Europe What If the US Trade Balance Became a Surplus? The Bug that Roared Up in the Clouds, or How Do I Stay Connected? Newport, Gloucester, Denver, and Maine The Seen and the Unseen "In the economic sphere an...
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After I sent out this week's OTB on Germany, I remembered this very intriguingly titled piece by my friend George Friedman, founder of a geopolitical analysis company called Stratfor. The piece was written a few days ago, but when it comes to someone as ahead of the pack as George, who managed to...
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This week I offer a main course, a veritable piece de resistance, for Outside the Box readers, from my friend Rich Yamarone. Rich is Chief Economist for Bloomberg and one really sharp talent. He helps write Bloomberg Brief: Economics , a daily notebook that comes out every business morning with an all...
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We woke up this weekend to a €100 billion "rescue" of Spanish banks, and the initial reaction of the market was relief. But did we not just see this movie, but with Greek subtitles rather than Spanish? Was this another of those "necessary but not sufficient" plot lines that Europe...
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Nobody, in my book, slices and dices data more thoroughly or convincingly than Greg Weldon. In this week's Outside the Box, he first dispels the illusion that either of the two most-expected outcomes of the growing eurozone crisis is really any kind of a solution – neither expelling Greece...
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Waving the White Flag Viva Los Rescates Financieros de los Bancos Contagion is Real It Doesn’t End With Spain New York, Atlanta, and Philadelphia A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools. - Douglas...
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It really does seem to be All Spain All the Time, but there is a reason. Unlike Greece, Spain makes a difference to the eurozone. It may be both too big to allow to fail and too big to save. Last week I came across a very informative 50-page PowerPoint on the situation in Spain from Carmel Asset Management...
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The War for Spain Spain Goes “All In” “We Are Not Greece” The New Labor Force A Little Blue Suede Shoe Trouble I fully intended to ignore Spain this week. Really, truly I did. I had my letter all planned, but then a few notes drew my attention, and the more I reflected on them...
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I debated with myself about what to send as this week's Outside the Box. I have decided on a recent short but important post from my friend David Kotok, Chairman and Chief Investment Officer of Cumberland Advisors. He calls it "I'm Worried." There are some very thought-provoking ideas...