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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
03-16-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, China, Housing Crisis, Deflation, GDP, Consumer Spending, Consumer Price Index, Household Wealth, Gary Shilling, Consumer Debt, Consumer Saving, Financial Regulation, Automotive Sector, Deleveraging, Employment, Baby Boomers, Retirement, Eastern Europe, Exports, Protectionism, Savings
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Billionaires are now Slumdog Millionaires because: A. The credit markets remain frozen B. The US economy is falling off the cliff C. Corporate earnings are headed substantially lower (<$50 S&P 500 operating earnings) D. The socialist programs of the Obama administration threaten capitalism as...
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In my second conversation with the Market Strategist/Private Client Group for Stifel Nicholas and Chief Investment Officer with Washington Crossing Advisors we discussed his deep and long recession call, the consequences to earnings, the inefficiencies of government spending, and the lack of a central...
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“Senior Wall Street executives said yesterday that they had been sounded out on plans for an “aggregator bank” that would purchase toxic assets from banks. Under one of the plans discussed, toxic assets would be valued by an independent third party. Where assets are purchased at prices...
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“It is like if you are in an airplane and the oxygen mask comes down,” said Stefanie Kimball, (Independent Bank’s) chief lending officer. “First thing you do is put your own mask on, stabilize yourself.” " In Michigan, Bank Lends Little of Its Bailout Funds " NY...
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It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to impact many hedgies as available capital (for leveraged...
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Leverage Is an 8 Letter Word If Loans Are So Cheap, Why Don't They Sell? Deflation and Helicopters: Time for a Review Commercial Property Loans Start to Haunt the Banks Warren Makes a Bet Thanksgiving, Moving, and New Orleans Leverage is an eight-letter word, which the markets now regard as twice...
Posted to
Thoughts From The Frontline
by
John Mauldin
on
11-21-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Ben Bernanke, Consumer Price Index, Credit, Warren Buffet, Credit Crisis, Housing Crisis, Deflation, Deleveraging, Commercial Property, Goldman Sachs
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In his excellent book, “When Markets Collide”, PIMCO chief Mohammed El-Erian writes about the journey and the destination that the global economy and markets are undergoing and puts in context and helps clarifies much of the current economic and financial chaos. In it, Mr. El-Erian describes...
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Today's earnings report from Hewlett-Packard raises the question posed in this blog postings' title. To help shed some light on the subject, consider the corporate results produced thus far re 3Q08. Compiled each week from data published in the Wall Street Journal (and produced for subscribers...
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Can the credit crisis get any worse? In this week's Outside the Box my London partner Niels Jensen shows that it indeed can. Banks, and mainly European banks, have large exposure to emerging market debt of all types through both sovereign, corporate and individual loans. Just as banks have had to...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
11-10-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Credit Crisis, Hedge Funds, Recession, The Dollar, Niels Jensen, Credit Default Swaps, Deleveraging, Absolute Return Partners, Yen, Europe, European Banks, Emerging Economies, Iceland
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My conversation with Charles Schwab's Chief Investment Strategist includes a recession call, thoughts on the lasting consequences of the credit crisis (most notably deleveraging), and sector weightings. The length of the interview is 12 minutes 45 seconds. Click here to play this audio clip * To...
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In his award-wining book, “When Markets Collide”, incoming PIMCO CEO, Mohammed El-Erian makes the following statement: “…in contrast to past episodes of US economic slowdowns, emerging economies have two distinct secular forces going for them; and these should prove sufficient...
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As noted previously, stocks, having partially recovered from their deep oversold condition, are not the epicenter of the real economy impact of the credit crisis. The credit markets are. And in this regard, as lovely as the big oversold bounce in equities may have been and as astute as any investor might...
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If you are looking for a reason why stocks are plunging, here's one major reason. Today, at 10:30 AM and then again at 2 PM (both eastern time) announcements re settlement of the massive Lehman Bros. credit default swaps will occur. According to one trading desk source of mine, the equity markets...
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The folks over at National Public Radio noticed my blog posting of yesterday re the credit markets, Treasury yields, LIBOR, and the TED spread and did an interview with me on the topic, which you can listen to by clicking on the following link. To listen to the 20 minute interview, click here . Note...