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If you are looking for a reason why stocks are plunging, here's one major reason. Today, at 10:30 AM and then again at 2 PM (both eastern time) announcements re settlement of the massive Lehman Bros. credit default swaps will occur. According to one trading desk source of mine, the equity markets...
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The folks over at National Public Radio noticed my blog posting of yesterday re the credit markets, Treasury yields, LIBOR, and the TED spread and did an interview with me on the topic, which you can listen to by clicking on the following link. To listen to the 20 minute interview, click here . Note...
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Rules Matter. If the NFL changes its rules of play, does that not have an effect on the game? So, why would a rule change by the FASB or the SEC or a law by Congress not have the same game changing effect? When the FASB said that illiquid and opaque assets should be valued at their last sale (or whatever...
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commentary from this week’s “Sectors and Styles Strategy Report”*: Sunday evening’s US Treasury and Fed actions may seem bold to some. I beg to differ. Here are a few thoughts for your consideration: A recent report from respected consultancy Bridgewater Associates upped the ante...
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“She’s real fine my 409” 409 Beach Boys When the price of gas in the US hit $4.09 a gallon, the song that many consumers began singing was decidedly out of tune from the one the Beach Boys sang many decades ago. Back in the day, 409 had a different, simpler meaning. Summertime, hot...
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There is little doubt that many counterbalancing forces are at work in today’s equity markets. The bulls argue that March 17 (“Inflection Day” – see prior blog postings) was the turning point for the longer-term bull market correction that began in earnest last October. The worst...
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Recently, economic bulls were cheered by the news that earnings for the S&P 500 ex Financials rose a solid 11.8% in the first quarter of this year. Unfortunately, what the economic bulls seem to have ignored is the fact that once you drill down beneath the stratosphere of large cap issues you find...
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It could be argued that the recent rise in the medium and longer term US Treasury rates have something to do with concerns re inflation. It also could just as easily be argued that a major part of the rise is due to a lessening of the fear factor related to the credit crisis and an associated narrowing...
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excerpts from this week's report: Gary Crittenden Chief Financial Officer, Citigroup "For those who may be inclined to go along with the recent optimistic comments from the heads of several major investment banks (see last Thursday’s blog posting, “News Flash: Credit Crisis End in Sight”) and...
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“…it is now clear that the current turmoil is more than simply a liquidity event, reflecting the deep-seated balance sheet fragilities and weak capital bases, which means its effects are likely to be broader, deeper, and more protracted.” IMF Global Financial Stability Report April 2008 This has been...
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To elaborate on my Tuesday BNN TV interview and to provide a technical analysis perspective as to why the Financials are a value trap for investors, here are a few thoughts. As stated in the interview, from a fundamental perspective any sector that is about to undergo regulatory change is by itself sufficient...