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The Next Bubble A Hollow Powerhouse? We’ve Seen This (Manufacturing) Movie Before A Manufacturing Renaissance Bismarck, Scandinavia, Greece, Geneva, and Writing Schedule For the last year, as I travel around, it seems a main topic of conversation is “Where will my kids find jobs?” It...
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In This Issue: The Biggest Bubble of Them All Ireland is a Different Story Kicking the Can to the End of the Road Philly, Boston, Trequanda, Kiev, Geneva and London The Biggest Bubble of Them All This week we turn from the crisis brewing in the US to the one that is coming to a slow boil in Europe. We...
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A Bubble in Search of a Pin Unemployment Numbers: A Mixed Bag A Bubble in Search of a Pin And Speaking of Bubbles Help in Europe, California, and Tampa, and Becoming our Parents Should Greenspan and Bernanke have seen the bubble in housing and other assets and acted, or should we accept their defense...
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In last Friday's letter, I said that I had not bought any single stocks in the last decade, preferring funds and managers, and in general I still do. However, I am now going to start buying a specific asset class this month and currently plan to add to those holdings at least every quarter for several...
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Today I offer you an insightful look at China's real estate market - a "burgeoning bubble" that deserves a close eye as the possibility for breaking increases. Remember the chaos in Japan after their own housing dreamscape got violently yanked back to earth? As investors, we have to recognize...
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Andy Serwer writes today on the Fortune magazine website an article entitled “Can Jordan Build on its Relative Success?” Even the title is a give-away of modest expectations: “relative success”? The article lists some of Jordan’s undeniable achievements over the past seven...
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A steadily growing drumbeat is sounding throughout financial mediadom; a major commodities blowout is in the cards. The most widely quoted reason is a U.S. recession that will sympathetically pop the commodity bubble. It seems to me that these views are intertwined with a changed perception of how the...
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What does a bubble look like and how do they end? In this week's Outside the Box, James Montier of Societe Generale in London looks at not only the psychological analysis, but also at the propensity for commentators to continually proclaim the end of the problem and a resumption of business as usual...
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Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy Home Again, Home Again The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data...
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Introduction This week we look at length at an outstanding new book just hitting the bookstores by good friend Paul McCulley (of Pimco fame), called Your Financial Edge . The main themes will give me an opportunity to weave in a few thoughts about some recent data, and a lengthy telephone interview with...
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Introduction This week's Outside the Box is comprised of 2 smaller articles that I believe will, collectively, provide you with some interesting information to digest. The 1st article will be a follow up piece to last week's Outside the Box where I featured a commentary by Morgan Stanley's...
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Introduction I am taking some time off from writing over the holidays, but good friend Barry Ritholtz offered to write this week's letter. It is a very thought-provoking piece on the importance of what he calls the "real estate industrial complex" to the economy. Loaded with charts and...
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Introduction This week I am in New Orleans at the annual New Orleans Investment Conference and quite frankly with so many good friends that I have given myself permission to not write a letter this week. But you will be getting an even better writer than me for this week's letter. I arranged for...
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Introduction We have been told for months that the next interest rate move by the Federal Reserve is dependent upon what the data tells us prior to each meeting. If the data tells us that inflation is too high and/or the economy too strong, the Fed will continue in its pause mode or maybe even hike rates...