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The Hero's Dilemma: Kill the Dragon or Rescue the Princess? Our previous experiences with "stagflation," as the double economic whammy of slowing growth and rising inflation is known, occurred in the '70s and early '80s. Market veterans still recount the Legend of Former Fed Chief...
Posted to
Growth Report
by
Ian Wyatt
on
08-05-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: stagflation, Accuride, FOMC, short profits, oil, oil prices, dragon, short, IndyMac, Western Refining, U.S. dollar, Fed, housing market, inflation, interest rates, WCI, bonds, Bernanke, Volcker
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Written: April 25, 2008 Dear Reader, What an interesting week! Having been a single parent for two weeks, with the kids on spring break for the second of those, I have attained a whole new level of appreciation, yes, I think that's the word, for the difficulty associated with holding down the home...
Posted to
The Room
by
David Galland
on
04-29-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, Politics, Coal, Oil, Gold, China, Housing Crisis, Food Prices, Diamonds, Women, Bonds, Africa, Project Manhunt
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This week we look at yet another rather obscure credit market that is in essential lockdown as the subject of your Outside the Box. My London partner Niels Jensen, head of Absolute Return Partners, has written a very interesting piece on the leveraged loan and bank loan markets, which are now upside...
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Should the Fed Cut Interest Rates? The Shocker in the Employment Numbers Should the Federal Reserve Cut Interest Rates? Will A Cut Make Any Difference? How Housing Woes Hurt the Rest of the Economy Home Again, Home Again The unemployment numbers came in today, and if you look under the hood of the data...
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Introduction Investors are constantly seeking "alpha," that elusive substance which yields returns in excess of a simple market portfolio. While I am flying today to Prague, this week good friend Rob Arnott teams up with associate John West to show that it is just as important to eliminate...
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The Subprime Virus The Subprime Virus 2007 Mid-Year Forecast Compete With the Pros When the Facts Change Credit? What Credit? global Warming, Maine and San Antonio As predicted in this letter early this year, the credit markets have finally begun to tighten, as a major re-pricing of risk is underway...
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Introduction This week in Outside the Box, we take a closer look at the bond market and its underlying drivers. HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt anticipate lower inflationary pressures on account of faltering consumer spending and further deterioration in the housing market. Hoisington Investment...
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Introduction As I glanced over at the TV in my office this morning, the latest news on the ticker wire was that American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. (AHM) is trading down over 16%. While the company is not of any particular importance to me, it spurred my thinking regarding how the housing market...
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Introduction On Friday, I wrote my annual forecast, " The Goldilocks Recession ," on what investment themes I expect in the coming year. This week's Outside the Box will follow up on the subject with an excellent piece written by Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt. In their fourth quarter...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
01-08-2007
Filed under:
Filed under: Mortgage, Housing, Inflation, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, John Mauldin, Bonds, Quarterly Reveiw, Consumer Spending, Economic Forecast
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Introduction Today's "Outside the Box" will be a combination of 2 different writings. The 1st is an email that I received from Research Affiliates Chairman Rob Arnott in response to my letter last Friday, "Honey, I Created a Bubble." The 2nd is the latest article by the well-known...
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Introduction Last week we started a series on a very important book by friend Joe Ellis called "Ahead of the Curve." We continue this week looking at specific indicators that Joe thinks give us a heads up when the economy is about to slow down and the stock market will being a bear market....
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Introduction The level of attention to the recent and mild inversion of the yield curve has bordered on hysteria in the media. Does it portend a recession? Or is, as Ethan Harris, the chief economist of Lehman Brothers suggests, the bond market simply on drugs? This week we pause in our series on trade...