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My long time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter which I regard as a must read. I have excerpted parts of his recent...
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Economics This Week’s Data July personal income came in flat with June versus expectations of a 0.1% increase; July personal spending was up 0.2% versus estimates of up 0.3%. So the consumer continues to suffer. The July core personal consumption expenditure index (inflation) was flat versus forecasts...
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This week I came across two items that I think are worthy of being in Outside the Box, so I am going to give you both. The first is an essay by good friend Paul McCulley, Managing Director of PIMCO, called "Saving Capitalist Banking from Itself." The second is a recent speech by Paul Volker...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
02-23-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Paul McCulley, Banks, Government, Pimco, Bank Failures, Bailout, Economic Crisis, Minsky, Economic Policy, Paul Volker
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Milton Friedman famously predicted that the euro would not last past their first economic crisis. This week we look at commentary by Niels Jensen that explores the news from Euroland. Can the euro survive? He explores a number of options which are most definitely not on the radar screen for most investors...
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Yesterday I sent you an Outside the Box from Paul McCulley who supports the government and Fed activity (in general) in the current economic crisis. Today we look at an opposing view from Bennet Sedacca of Atlantic Advisors. He asks some very interesting questions like: Shouldn't the consumer, after...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
01-07-2009
Filed under:
Filed under: Mortgage, Housing, The Fed, Subprime, Interest Rates, Portfolio Diversification, Consumer Debt, Financial Reform, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bank Failures, Corporate Debt, Bennet Sedacca, Bailout, Bear Market, FOMC, Economic Crisis, T-Bills
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This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. Last year in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
12-15-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: The Fed, Credit Crisis, Housing Crisis, Recession, The Dollar, Gary Shilling, Diversification, Consumer Debt, Depression, Monetary Policy, Financial Crisis, Consumer Confidence, Bank Failures, Bailout, Jobs, Commodities, TARP, Commercial Real Estate
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Economics This Week’s Data Other Putting current bank failures in perspective: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/fdic-bank-failures.html Update on credit crisis indicators: http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2008/10/credit-crisis-indicators-some-progress_31.html Another credit crisis indicator...
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Dear Friends: Exhale for a moment, forget your losses for the time being, and try to appreciate the fact that you're living through the single most important development in global finance since Bretton Woods. This is a "tell the grandkids about it" moment, when governments all around the...
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
10-16-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Credit Crisis, George Friedman, Stratfor, Geopolitics, Recession, Globalization, Banks, Global Economy, Economy, Financial Crisis, Bank Failures, Bailout, Europe
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The credit crisis is global. Interestingly, some of the more creative and straight forward solutions are coming from England. This week in Outside the Box I am presenting you with a very well written (even entertaining) letter from Bedlam Asset Management from London www.bedlamplc.com on their view of...
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Do government bailouts in times of banking crises work? Philippa Dunne & Doug Henwood of The Liscio Report highlight a major study of 42 fairly recent banking crises around the world. Result? Some types of government intervention works and some don't. One characteristic that is needed though...
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The purpose of Outside the Box is to present views which cause us to think through our basic assumptions. This week our old friend Michael Lewitt of Hegemony Capital Management gives us a view as to why the bailout bill going down may not be as bad as I think it might. There is much we agree on, however...
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The weekend has brought us events that can only be described in large, over-the-top terms. The Fed agreeing to take equity on its balance sheet? How bad can things really be? Clearly much worse than most people thought last Friday. Moral Hazard has been re-introduced as Lehman is allowed to go down....
Posted to
John Mauldin's Outside the Box
by
John Mauldin
on
09-15-2008
Filed under:
Filed under: Michael Lewitt, Barry Ritholz, Economic Forecast, Bear Sterns, Financial Crisis, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, Bank Failures, Lehman Brothers, Bailout, AIG
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Last Friday's letter was about the fact that it is not just Freddie and Fannie. There are other problems. The Weekend Edition and today's Wall Street Journal are filled with stories about the problems with Freddie and Fannie. The assumption in so many quarters is that they will soon need government...