You can't keep a good market down
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

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Have You Seen This?


Economics

   This Week’s Data

    Weekly mortgage applications rose 3.8%, the third increase in as many weeks.

    Weekly jobless claims were up slightly versus expectations that they would be down slightly (this article is short in length):
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/weekly-unemployment-claims-increase_20.html

   Other

    A look at the decline (or lack thereof) in US manufacturing (short):
    http://www.cato-at-liberty.org/2009/08/13/harold-meyerson-is-part-of-the-problem/

    The climate bill’s cost in jobs (short/medium):
    http://thehill.com/business--lobby/climate-bill-could-cost-2-million-jobs-2009-08-12.html

    Barry Ridholtz always has an interesting perspective on key issues.  Here is his take on the inflation versus deflation argument (short & charts):
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/deflation-or-inflation/

    A thoughtful argument for why the recession isn’t over (short/medium):
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/08/is-the-recession-really-over/
   
    Concern about China’s stimulus (short):
    http://ftalphaville.ft.com/blog/2009/08/19/67636/chinas-fiscal-stimulus-fading-fast/

    Greg Mankiw on the shape of the recovery (short):
    http://gregmankiw.blogspot.com/2009/08/blanchard-on-outlook.html

    Bank of England suggests recession is over (short):
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/uk-bofe-forecasts-suggests-recession-is.html

    The latest on commercial real estate values (short):
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/08/moodys-cre-prices-off-36-percent-from.html
   
Politics

  Domestic

If you missed Warren Buffett’s editorial in the WSJ on monetary/fiscal policy (medium):
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/opinion/19buffett.html?_r=2&pagewanted=1&ref=opinion

Ann Coulter on healthcare (ignore the sarcasm [unless you like her humor]; but she makes great points) (medium):
http://www.anncoulter.com/

    Thoughts on healthcare from a slightly different angle (medium):
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=NTBmOTNmZjYzNzU3NTIwMWE2ZjYyZTU2Nzg2YjM2OWQ=

    This is your congress in action--threatening business to get its way (must read):
    http://voices.washingtonpost.com/capitol-briefing/2009/08/democrats_increase_pressure_on.html?hpid=topnews

    And this is your righteously transparent administration (short/medium):
    http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26240.html

    And these guys claim that they can run 1/6th of the US economy (healthcare) more efficiently (short):
    http://cafehayek.com/2009/08/ious-for-suckers.html


  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical

    The Averages (DJIA 9279, S&P 996) closed within the up trend off their March lows (8696-10456, 953-1180).  Stock prices dropped at the open and I just knew that we were going to get our chance to nibble.  Not to be.  Buyers stepped in again and we finished with another up day.  Volume remains low; but the VIX, following a one day spike above its down trend off its October 2008 high, is now back below that boundary.

    Meanwhile, the lower boundary of the March to present up trend continues its inexorable rise.  Risk/reward (assuming the current up trend is dominant) is now 43 points down and 184 points up--suggesting that the patience I so sagely counseled yesterday is nearing a point of diminishing returns.

   Fundamental
   
    More evidence on why you shouldn’t listen to the experts (short):
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/08/strategists-follow-the-market-higher.html

      Headlines

    Almost no economic news yesterday; and except for more awkward bumbling on healthcare by the administration, the politicians were thankfully mute.  Investors’ focus was initially on another bad performance over night in the Chinese stock market; and that got our own Market headed down.  But as noted above, investors seemingly decided that a lower Chinese market wasn’t that bad and US stock prices reversed up and never looked back.  Later in the morning, oil inventories were reported to have experienced their largest decline in six months and that added fuel to the fire (pardon the pun).   





Posted 08-20-2009 8:29 AM by Steve Cook