Economics

   This Week’s Data

   Other

    This article argues that the dollar isn’t in as dire straits as some think (medium):
    http://www.realclearmarkets.com/blog/D%25C3%25A9j%25C3%25A0%2520vu%2520All%2520over%2520Again%2520100909.pdf

More bad news for the dollar (long):
    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a4x9dIJsPn4U
   
    This won’t help the dollar (easy Fed policy) (short):
    http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/10/feds-bullard-falling-unemployment-rate.html

    Another good article on how natural gas supplies are growing and solving our ‘energy crisis’ (medium):
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/10/energy-crisis-postponed-new-gas-to.html

    Capital investment remains weak (short):
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/10/getting-better/

    And this (medium):
    http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2009/10/banks-clamp-down-on-small-business-loans-jeopardizing-jobs.html

    And this (short):
    http://paul.kedrosky.com/archives/2009/10/venture_capital_21.html

Politics

  Domestic

    The congressional budget office says tort reform would save $54 billion over the next 10 years in healthcare (short):
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/10/09/AR2009100904271.html

  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical

    The DJIA (9885) remains within its up trend off its March low (9586-11448).  While the S&P (1076) has also returned to trade within the same up trend (1066-1308), I am still viewing it as trading in the range it set when it broke below the lower boundary of the March to present up trend two weeks ago (989-1080).  Due to the Columbus Day holiday, volume was very light yesterday.  However, the VIX was off significantly and is nearing recent lows.

    A look at our internal indicator shows very strong breadth.  Out of 161 stocks in our Universes, 130 are above the upper boundary of the down trend off their 2008 highs, 110 are in solid up trends--and in fact in the last couple of days, several stocks have re-established up trends after breaking down and trading in a range, and 109 are trading above their November 2008 trading high.

    Here are a couple of brief posts from TraderFeed.  Note how they all indicate much weaker breadth than our internal indicator.  It will be interesting to see how the difference plays out.
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/working-market-sell-signal.html
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/look-at-todays-advances-and-declines.html
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/update-re-divergences.html
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/another-look-at-volume-and-volatility.html

   Fundamental
   
     Headlines

    Not a lot of news yesterday impacting the pin action.  The two biggest stories in the US was a group of economists declared the recession over (whew) and the health insurance industry issued a scathing report on the Baucus bill detailing how it will result in health insurance premiums doubling in the next ten years.

    We are still waiting for more of the big boys to report earnings (revenues); but here is yesterday’s score: Black and Decker--better eps and sales than expected; Phillips Electronics--better sales than expected; Ford Europe--better sales than expected; Fastenal--worse sales than expected.