Let's see how the Market trades on the NFP number
Steve Cook on Disciplined Investing

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Economics

   This Week’s Data

    Fourth quarter productivity fell ,4% versus expectations of an increase of .8%; while unit labor costs spiked 5.7% versus estimates of a rise of 4.7%.

    January factory orders were down 1.9% versus forecasts of down 3.0% and December’s reading of down 3.9%.

    February nonfarm payrolls fell 651,000 versus expectations of a drop of 649,000--so basically in line; the accompanying unemployment rate was 8.1% versus estimates of 7.9%.

   Other

    I commented yesterday on the China stimulus plan (that never materialized).  Here is some stats on the China economy:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/03/china-%E2%80%93-better-days-ahead/

    Rail traffic down in February:
    http://www.aar.org/NewsAndEvents/PressReleases/2009/03_WTR/030509_Traffic.aspx

    Krauthammer on the budget:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/05/AR2009030502951.html

    More government regulation:
    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123621357629835121.html

Politics

  Domestic

More on those lower level administration appointments:
http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2009/03/022983.php

  International War Against Radical Islam

The Market
    
    Technical

    Another tough day.  The indices closed at DJIA 6594, S&P 682--this in relation to the nearest visible support level DJIA 5461, S&P 592. 

    Advance/declines are also making new lows:
    http://traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/03/weakness-in-s-500-index.html

    Sentiment is at record lows:
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/03/the-running-of-the-bears.html

   Fundamental
    
    In addition to the sales our Portfolios made at yesterday’s Market opening, they also closed out their S&P short ETF position at the Market close.  I did that not because I am an aspiring bull but because I think that there was a lot of selling ahead of the employment report this morning. 

Update: As noted above, NFP was reported in line with forecasts and the futures are lifting a little.  My plan is to watch the open and first hour with the intent of doing a little more selling and buying the S&P short ETF back.  If you didn’t sell the ETF yesterday, I would do nothing at the moment.  I will likely be in touch during the day.
 





Posted 03-06-2009 8:20 AM by Steve Cook