Economics

   This Week’s Data

    The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers fell 0.1% versus the prior week and rose 2.9% versus the comparable period a year ago;  Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales increased 1.7% on a  year over year basis.

   Other

    Why foreigners are not upset about the declining dollar (short):
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/niall-ferguson-and-dollar-margaret-brennan-and-red-dress

    The problem with short term debt--it has to be rolled (short):
    http://www.zerohedge.com/article/us-lunatic-asylum-ie-economy-facing-approximately-15-trillion-roll-risk-2012

Politics

  Domestic

Get ready of the big tax squeeze: A discussion of the forces that are going to push our taxes up over the next couple of years (long):
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/get-ready-for-the-big-tax-squeeze.aspx

    My favorite liberal blogger analyzes the politics of healthcare reform (medium):
    http://slate.com/blogs/blogs/kausfiles/archive/2009/11/10/health-care-reform-got-id.aspx

    EPA lawyers say ‘cap and trade’ is fatally flawed (long):
    http://michellemalkin.com/2009/11/10/epa-lawyers-cap-and-trade-bill-is-fatally-flawed/

    Milton Friedman makes a good point about how the definition of insurance is different for healthcare versus insurance for auto or home (short):
    http://mjperry.blogspot.com/2009/11/changing-meaning-of-insurance.html

  International War Against Radical Islam

    Connecting the dots:  On the lack of proper response to provocations of Major Hasan:
    http://article.nationalreview.com/?q=N2FjZjA5YjMxYmM2ZmNhZjQ3ODQ4MzQ0OWVmYmFhZjE=

The Market
    
    Technical

    Comments on gold and gold stocks:
    http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2009/11/welsh-letter-gold-and-gold-stocks/

    The DJIA (10246) is trading in an up trend (9816-11684), while the S&P (1093) tried to surmount it prior high (1102) but couldn’t--that leaves it in  trading range.  The VIX was down again, keeping it below the former down trend off its October 2008 high but still above its prior low--that leaves it in trading range.  All the talking heads were yakking about great it was that after a couple of big up days, the Averages held their ground on an off day.  Maybe.  I am thinking the reverse; that is, if the S&P can’t bust out of its trading range having reached a very over bought position, why should I be getting jiggy about where it goes from here?

    Here is some statistical support for the lack of breadth in this rally:
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/11/sp-500-breadth-checkup.html

    I have got to tell you, every instinct I have says that we should be taking money (US stocks) off the table.  But our technical discipline says we have to give the S&P the chance to show that it can not make a new high.  So I am stuck sitting on my hands, itching to pull the trigger for at least another day.
   
   Fundamental
   
    Here is the report card on the revenue ‘beat’ for the third quarter.  Clearly it happened; it just didn’t have the desired results:
    http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/11/top-line-numbers-not-bad.html


       Headlines

(1)    four Fed officials gave speeches yesterday.  Not one of them would make any prediction on when the Fed would start raising interest rates.  Nor did they mention the dollar or gold.  The ‘dollar trade’ may be crowded; but what is going to change it?

(2)    Chris Dodd announced his version (Obama and Barney Frank also have one) of a financial reform bill.  The most notable provision is to take bank supervision away from the Fed and place it with a new agency to be run be a political appointee.  I can’t think of anything more worse than making the entire banking system subject to politicians--think Fannie Mae and the community reinvestment act to the tenth power.