This Week’s Data
The International Council of Shopping Centers reported weekly sales of major retailers rose 1.0% versus the prior week but fell 0.5% versus the comparable period a year ago; Redbook Research reported month to date retail chain store sales off 1.6% versus the similar timeframe in June and down 5.5% on a year over year basis.
The Conference Board announced its July index of consumer confidence at 46.6 versus expectations of 49.2 and June’s reading of 49.3.
The May Case Shiller Home Price Index rose 0.5% versus April, the first month over month increase in three years; year over year the index was down 17%. However, it now appears that the release failed to mention that the number hadn’t been seasonally adjusted:
The Richmond Fed’s July business index came in at 14 versus a June reading of 6; it was the fifth increase in a row.
June durable goods orders fell 2.5% versus expectations of a 0.6% decline; the May reading was revised from +1.8% to +1.3%. Let’s see how Mr. Market handles this little bit of news today.
Weekly mortgage applications were unchanged from the prior week.
A Fed inflation hawk speaks out:
The math behind Chinese growth:
More discouraging news from Japan:
International War Against Radical Islam
The indices (9096, 979) bounced around yesterday but remain within their up trend (circa 8348-9980, 902-1109) off their March lows. Note the lower boundaries of those up trends are above the 876, 8820 support levels (our former trading range). Volume was low; the VIX advanced a bit but the move was of no meaning; finally, the breadth indicators continue to suggest consolidation.
(1) the economic indicators gave us good news [Case Shiller Home Price Index] and bad news [the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index]; but investors only seemed focus on the bad news,
(2) the Treasury’s auction for the day didn’t go all that well,
(3) then the Richmond Fed came in with very positive report.
Both the bulls and bears had the economic ammo to prompt additional buying/selling. By mid afternoon, it looked like the bears were going to have their way--and then it happened again. With stock prices down, the buyers stepped in and pushed the Averages to a near flat close. It sure looks like the power continues to reside with the buyers (shorts and underinvested).
07-29-2009 8:30 AM