Principles of the Stock Market

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Odds Still Favor Deep Recession

THE BIG PICTURE & THE ECONOMY Today’s Big Picture view comes down to whether the US economy is going into a severe, long lasting recession or not. My belief remains that we are, that’s where today’s slow-motion economic slowdown...

Published Mon, May 05 2008 8:59 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Commodities, Soft Commodities, US Economy, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Global Investing, Stock Market Weekly, Macroeconomics, Commodity Bull Market, Economy Weekly, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Global Trend, Recession
Rising Wedge Exhausts Itself; Pullback Forecasted

Written Thursday, May 8th, 2008 TECHNICAL VIEW . Rising Wedges Run Out of Steam! We’ve formed Rising Wedge chart patterns in a number of key market averages, most easily seen in the Dow Industrials , the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 400 Midcap...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:55 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Dowtrend Channels, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Portfolio Strategy, Market Corrections, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rising Wedge
Relative Strength Tells Us What To Buy

The Principle of Relative Strength. Just checked some on where this rally now stands applying one of my principles. One sound fundamental to practice for near and intermediate term performance is to favor those stocks and sectors doing well and then shy...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:49 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Investing Strategies, Keys to the Market, Seven Principles, Portfolio Strategy, Perspective, The Principle of Relative Strength
Always Expect Rallies

THE STOCK MARKET Written Monday, May 5th, 2008: Weekly Overview. We’ve been up for three straight weeks now. At least for the large cap indices, the Dow Industrials , the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite . You know those US-headquartered but...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:42 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Trading, Technical View, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Higher Higher & Higher Lows, Update On The Stock Market, Weekly Letter, Perspective, Market Corrections, Global Trend, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies
Recession Risk Over? Pushed Back Maybe, Over No

THE ECONOMY Written Monday, May 5th, 2008: Regular Weekly Overview: Numerous economists are now saying the possibility of an US recession has passed. I think this change of viewpoint began about a week plus back when the Durable Goods Orders–Ex...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:38 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, US Economy, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend, Weekly Letter, Macroeconomics, Economy Weekly, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Deflation, Recession
Official Recession? Does it Matter?

Official Recession Or Not? And Does it Matter? Written Thursday, May 1st, 2008: Yesterday our first look at the US ’s Growth Domestic Product or GDP for short, showed a gain of +0.6%, a little above the consensus view. But the US consumer, who accounts...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:30 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Inflation, Jobs Report, US Economy, Economic Data, Stock Market Weekly, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective
Technicals Say More Rally Ahead

TECHNICAL VIEW . April 29th, 2008: The Dow Industrials bullishly pushed up and out of its 3-month trading range on Friday, April 18 th joining the Dow Transports to the upside. Bullish. A number of other key indices, like the Nasdaq Composite did so as...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 8:58 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Technical View, Charting, Keys to the Market, Dow Transports, Day to Day Action, Higher Higher & Higher Lows, Portfolio Strategy, Trades, A Line, The Principle of Technical Analysis
March 17th, 2008: Fateful Day Turned Markets

UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Tuesday, April 29th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. The stock market has some uncertainty – there’s that awful word again – about tomorrow’s Federal Reserve 2:15 p.m. interest rate policy announcement. For the first time in a very long time...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 8:50 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Commodities, Investing Strategies, Soft Commodities, Keys to the Market, Market Bottoms, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Commodity Bull Market, Portfolio Strategy, Perspective, Federal Reserve, Government Intervention, Elliott Wave Principle
"Are Emerging Markets Overpriced?"

I was just asked: “Are emerging markets overpriced?” Let me answer that question for all of us. Emerging markets are fairly valued. Not overvalued, considering their substantial going forward growth prospects but not undervalued either considering they...

Published Wed, Apr 04 2008 8:57 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Value View, Investing Strategies, The Principle of Primary Trend, Brazil, Latin America, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Global Trend, Emerging Markets
Tradiing Range on Verge of Buy Signal.

TECHNICAL VIEW . Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008 There’s still a bit of doubt whether we’ve now broken out of the wide and volatile trading range we’ve been in every since late January to the upside. And whether it will stick. At least in my mind. My reasoning...

Published Wed, Apr 04 2008 8:53 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Technical View, Charting, Bullish Signs, Dow Theory, Keys to the Market, Dow Transports, Day to Day Action, Higher Higher & Higher Lows, Portfolio Strategy, A Line, The Principle of Technical Analysis
China Scale-In Buy Starts Today!

SCHWARTZ BUY RECOMMENDATION this morning. Yes, with China (domestically) down -50% off its peak and the related Chinese region indices down slightly less but now showing some signs of a bottom and turn around, I’d suggest that its time to put some sidelined...

Published Wed, Apr 04 2008 8:50 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Technical View, China View, Commodities, Investing Strategies, Market Bottoms, Brazil, Global Investing, Higher Higher & Higher Lows, Global Trend, The Principle of Technical Analysis
IBD 100 "New Names" Strategy

IBD 100 ‘NEW NAMES .’ Lots of new names this week. But nothing really thematically new after a deeper look into which new names popped up on this list of those stocks doing well, fundamentally and in stock performance. Most come from what I’ve taken to...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 9:48 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Investing Strategies, IBD 100 'New Names', Trades, The Principle of Relative Strength
Keeping an Eye on the Economy

THE ECONOMY Whatever the stock market does next, it’s been in rally mode for the last month, the US economy continues to sputter and slide lower. I was assessing the latest economic data late last week, starting with housing, and recent developments continued...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 9:45 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, US Economy, Economic Data, Weekly Letter, Macroeconomics, Commodity Bull Market, Economy Weekly, Perspective
Prechter's Views Still Germane

THE BIG PICTURE I started reading another doom & gloom book yesterday. It’s Robert Prechter, Jr.’s 2002 CONQUER THE CRASH . I know, I know. Too much focus on the glass half full. Still I don’t want anything to sneak up on me, on us. Immediately upon...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 9:39 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Inflation, US Economy, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Perspective, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes, The Big Picture, Deflation, Elliott Wave Principle
The Weak US Dollar & Fixed Incomes

A friend from up in Albany emailed me the following questions. I thought my answers may help others: ” I think I understand the basics of why the dollar has fallen so fast of late but I know you will know the details. It seems like there is always controversy...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 9:34 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Inflation, US Dollar, US Economy, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Principle of History, Deflation, Fixed Income

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Odds Still Favor Deep Recession

Rising Wedge Exhausts Itself; Pullback Forecasted

Relative Strength Tells Us What To Buy

Always Expect Rallies

Recession Risk Over? Pushed Back Maybe, Over No

Official Recession? Does it Matter?

Technicals Say More Rally Ahead

March 17th, 2008: Fateful Day Turned Markets

"Are Emerging Markets Overpriced?"

Tradiing Range on Verge of Buy Signal.

China Scale-In Buy Starts Today!

IBD 100 "New Names" Strategy

Keeping an Eye on the Economy

Prechter's Views Still Germane

The Weak US Dollar & Fixed Incomes