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Once a Century Day of Reckoning Starting?

THE BIG PICTURE Ok, here’s a Big Picture of where America and we Americans stand today. A fairly downbeat Big Picture so buckle your seatbelts. America has been on the verge of a major comeuppance for many, many years. But its been postponed and...

Published Mon, Jun 06 2008 8:44 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, ETFs, Stagflation, Gold, Alan Greenspan, Commodities, Inflation, US Dollar, US Economy, The Principle of Primary Trend, The Fed, Macroeconomics, US Treasuries, Commodity Bull Market, Historical Perspectve, Federal Reserve, Oil, Crashes, Jim Rogers, The Big Picture, Elliott Wave Principle, Recession, Agricultural Commodities, Financial Crisis, Trader Vic, Vic Sperandeo, Manufacturing, Consumer Spending, Recessions, Industrial Economy, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Discounting Mechanism, Reflex Rally, History, Bear Market Rallies, John McCain, Democracy, Capitalism, Real Estate, Robert Reich, Ben Bernanke, Gasoline, Commodity Inflation, Hyperinflation, Congress, Recession Depression, Peter Schiff, Heating Fuel, Big Picture
Oil Near a Peak? Yes.

OIL VIEW . I’ve been reading a lot about oil, the current state and the history of oil as we see prices keep rising and we all wonder where a top is. So below are some interesting tidbits which I’ve unearthed from the Internet (a great modern...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 1:56 PM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Value View, Stagflation, Commodities, Inflation, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend, Geopolitics, US Treasuries, Commodity Bull Market, Economy Weekly, Schwartz Rules, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, The Principle of History, Rallies, Investment Themes, Trend Reversals, Terrorism, Iraq, Iran, OPEC, History, Flight to Safety
Don't Be Waylaid by Economic Spin!

THE BIG PICTURE Last Monday I presented the bull’s three pronged case , that: (1) the credit crisis is past it’s worst stages, (2) that we can skirt a recession or just experience a mild one and (3) that we have good value in stocks today...

Published Wed, May 05 2008 10:03 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, Inflation, Jobs Report, US Economy, Economic Data, Weekly Letter, Macroeconomics, Economy Weekly, Perspective, Federal Reserve, Government Intervention, Deflation, Recession, Globalization, Bretton Woods, Economic Common Sense, Money Supply, Manufacturing, Consumer Spending, Recessions, Service Economy, Industrial Economy, Spin
1973-1974 Redux

The Principle of History. Knowing one’s history gives us guidelines and a basis to work from. So yesterday I began to compare the last Papa Bear market we lived through, 1973-1974, which encompassed the first really oil crisis, to today’s...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:09 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Shorting, Technical View, Stagflation, Inflation, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Seven Principles, Day to Day Action, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes, Market Corrections, Tops, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Rising Wedge, Trading Rules, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, 1974, 1973
Oil Holding Stock Market Up! Oil Is Key.

OIL NOW AT $130! What will be the resolution of today’s high oil prices? The best, first approach in analyzing anything is to look back at any historical parallels we can find. The two oil crises of the 1970’s pop immediately to mind. Thus...

Published Wed, May 05 2008 9:26 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, Commodities, Green Investing, Alternative Energy, Soft Commodities, Dow Transports, Commodity Bull Market, Historical Perspectve, Oil, The Principle of History, Deflation, Recession, Rising Wedge, Agricultural Commodities, AG, Globalization
Recession Risk Over? Pushed Back Maybe, Over No

THE ECONOMY Written Monday, May 5th, 2008: Regular Weekly Overview: Numerous economists are now saying the possibility of an US recession has passed. I think this change of viewpoint began about a week plus back when the Durable Goods Orders–Ex...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:38 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, US Economy, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend, Weekly Letter, Macroeconomics, Economy Weekly, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, The Principle of History, The Big Picture, Deflation, Recession
Today's Three-Pronged Nexus

Mon day, April 7 th , 2008 : Watching golf over the weekend, I know it’s so boring to many, I was amazed at the gorgeous setting of Punta Espada Golf Club, the Jack Nicklaus Course in the Dominican Republic . The water was blue & beautiful, the waves...

Published Mon, Apr 04 2008 8:15 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, US Economy, Economic Data, The Fed, Macroeconomics, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Market Corrections, Government Intervention, The Big Picture
Inflation is a Problem!

INFLATION VIEW/FED’S INFLATION VIEW . Out of Touch! Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told lawmakers February 14 th that “inflation expectations appear to have remained reasonably well anchored.” He says that each time he speaks and I’m totally sick...

Published Fri, Feb 02 2008 7:51 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, The Age of Turbulence, GDP, Inflation, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, The Fed
Global Inflation

Global Inflation a Problem . We’ve got a growing problem with US and global inflation, no matter what our Federal Reserve Bank says. Although our Fed ignores them, or says they will go down soon, food and energy costs are rising and global, right? Thus...

Published Thu, Feb 02 2008 9:09 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, China View, Stagflation, Gold, Soft Commodities, GDP, Inflation, US Dollar, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, Global Investing
Self-Reinforcing Downturns

Recessions Differ from Mid-Cycle Slowdowns in that that are Self-Reinforcing . A self-reinforcing downturn, which normally leads to a recession has begun, reports Lakshman Achuthan, managing director of Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). Basically...

Published Thu, Feb 02 2008 9:03 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, GDP, Inflation, Jobs Report, US Economy, Economic Data, The Principle of Primary Trend
Weekly Economic Update

THE ECONOMY Monday, February 18th, 2008: Maybe I’m taking the wrong approach, updating you each Monday on the health and path of the economy. And talking about the ongoing debate about recession or not lying ahead. Maybe the best approach is to look at...

Published Thu, Feb 02 2008 8:57 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Value View, Stagflation, GDP, Inflation, Jobs Report, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data
On the Economy: 12/20/2007

ECONOMIC VIEW . Three points to think on today: Lucy heard the term on “ stagflation ” on CNBC early Tuesday morning and asked me what it was. I replied that stagflation was when inflation was rising and problematic … and … the economy was almost at stall...

Published Thu, Dec 12 2007 8:34 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Stagflation, Alan Greenspan, Commodities, Soft Commodities

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