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Oil Rally Likely Says Elliott Wave Theory

COMMODITY VIEW . Oil Rally Begins. Elliott Wave theory, originally produced by R. N. Elliott in the early 1900s, and now carried forward by Bob Prechter, past #1 market guru, basically says Elliott waves or complete market movements come in threes. Well...

Published Wed, Nov 11 2008 8:18 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Commodities, Investing Strategies, Charting, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Higher Higher & Higher Lows, 4-Day Rule, Commodity Bull Market, Portfolio Strategy, Oil, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Elliott Wave Principle, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Trend Reversals, 4-Day Corollary Rule, Trader Vic, Vic Sperandeo, Intermediate Corrections, Bull Market Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Global View, Global Economy, Stock Market, Gasoline, Big Picture, Energy, Chart Patterns, Crude Oil, Charts, Gas Prices, Driving, Energy Sevice, Boone Pickens, Demographics, heating bills
Studying Similar Sharp Declines & Their Bottoms

The Principle of Understanding History & The Principle of Technical Analysis . Written Tuesday, October 7th, 2008 OK, yesterday I heard one analyst, I believe it was Liz Ann Sounders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab say the recent sharp...

Published Tue, Oct 10 2008 1:26 PM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Shorting, Technical View, Investing Strategies, Charting, Dow Theory, Keys to the Market, Dow Transports, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, The Big Picture, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Stock Market Lessons, 1974, 1973, Recessions, Bear Market Legs, History, Stock Market, Big Picture, Dow Industrials, Credit Crunch, Bear Markets, Chart Patterns, 1932, 1929, Charts, Big Picture View, Shorts, Short Selling
Potential Rally Remains on Tightrope

TECHNICAL VIEW . Written Friday, August 1st, 2008: 6:30 a.m. EST With the S&P 500 closing just above it’s week ago Wednesday’s close this past Wednesday and the Nasdaq Composite following suit, we have a series of higher lows and higher...

Published Fri, Aug 08 2008 8:49 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Shorting, Technical View, Charting, Bullish Signs, Day to Day Action, Portfolio Strategy, Market Corrections, Mama Bears, Papa Bears, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Trading Rules, Trends, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Trend Reversals, Trading Volume, Distribution Days, Bear Market Rally, Shake Outs, Intermediate Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Big Picture, Trendlines, Bear Markets, Chart Patterns, Charts, Trade, Big Picture View, Shorts, Follow-Through Day, Short Selling
Stock Market Strategy: 6:30 am EST, Thursday, July 17th, 2008

STRATEGY VIEW . This morning please let me warn a bit further about using inverse vehicles. Appropriate because yesterday’s big rally must have gotten everyone’s attention, longs and shorts alike, but especially those now using these shorting...

Published Thu, Jul 07 2008 8:55 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, ETFs, Investing Strategies, Hedging, Hedge, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Portfolio Strategy, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, Papa Bears, The Big Picture, The Principle of Relative Strength, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, S&P 500, Dow Industrials, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Financial Discipline, ProFunds, Inverse Funds, Fidelity Selects, Rydex, Big Picture View, Model Portfolios, Short ETFs, Shorts, Longs
Portfolio Strategy: Monday, July 14th, 2008

PORTFOLIO STRATEGY This year’s mid-March to mid-May bear market rally was the first rally versus the new primary bear market downtrend. Usually the first rally is the best rally (just like the first loss is the best loss) because many investors...

Published Mon, Jul 07 2008 8:34 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Keys to the Market, Market Bottoms, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Daily Update, Weekly Letter, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Extended Bear Markets, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Trades, Trading Rules, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Trend Reversals, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Bear Stearns, Intermediate Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Ben Bernanke, Dow Industrials, Credit Crunch, Credit Crisis, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Mr. Market
Dow 12,000 Now A Memory

Thursday, June 26 th , 2008: Written 6:30 a.m. EST Going to find our “way to San Jose ” next week, on vacation, so I’m been auditioning books for the plane rides. One coming along is Hamish McRae’s THE WORLD IN 2020 . I previewed...

Published Thu, Jun 06 2008 8:45 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Technical View, Dowtrend Channels, Charting, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Distribution, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Federal Reserve, Extended Bear Markets, Mama Bears, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Reflex Rally, Round Numbers, Bear Market Rallies, Stock Market, Dow Industrials, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Bear Markets, Chart Patterns, Charts, Lower Highs & Lower Lows, 000, Dow 12, Round Number
Ho Hum, Another Bear Market Summer Day

UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Witten Friday, June 20th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. Looked to me like yesterday’s stock market rally was a knee-jerk reaction to China announcing it was going to raise oil prices by 17%. Crude dove on the news while stocks jumped...

Published Fri, Jun 06 2008 9:08 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: China, Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, China View, Investing Strategies, Head & Shoulders, The Coming China Wars, Keys to the Market, Dow Transports, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Global Investing, Update On The Stock Market, Daily Update, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Oil, Fan Principle, Mama Bears, Papa Bears, Government Intervention, Global Trend, Recession, Trends, The Principle of Proper Money Management, Globalization, 1974, 1973, Global Warming, Energy Conservation, Manufacturing, Consumer Spending, Recessions, Bear Market Rally, Intermediate Corrections, Bear Market Rallies, Global View, Global Economy, Developing Countries, Stock Market, Capitalism, Gasoline, Big Picture, Trendlines, Energy, Energy Savings, Energy Controls, Bear Markets, Chart Patterns, Crude Oil, Broadening Top, To Be Rich is Glorious, 1932, Subsidies, 1929, Depression
UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET: Written Wed., June 18, 2008: 6:30 a.m.

Wednesda y, June 18 th , 2008 : Woke up singing this morning … “Doo-da, Doo-da”… and I don’t sing! Watched the coronation of the Boston Celtics as NBA champs last night … “Goin’ to run all night, Goin’...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 9:02 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Inflation, US Economy, Keys to the Market, Economic Data, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Macroeconomics, Economy Weekly, Portfolio Strategy, The Big Picture, Recession, Financial Crisis, Economic Common Sense, Stock Market, Commodity Inflation, Big Picture, Credit Crisis, Economic Trends, The Principle of Crowd Psychology, Financial Media, Stock Market Media, Bear Markets, Economics, Mr. Market, Investor Psychology
Banks Breaking Down, Again

TECHNICAL VIEW . Banks Beginning a New Down Leg In Price? The next technical question is whether the banks are breaking down again. Into a new down leg. I see the KBW Bank Index dropped to a five year low yesterday. With many individual bank stocks in...

Published Wed, Jun 06 2008 8:43 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Shorting, Technical View, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Day to Day Action, Distribution, Portfolio Strategy, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Trends, KBW Bank Index, Cramer, Bear Market Rallies
Top of Bear Market Rally? Protect Yourselves!

Written Tuesday, May 27th, 2008 THE STOCK MARKET Briefly, the stock market pulled back sharply last week. Obviously this pullback may be about over and may be just a normal “shake out” on the way to higher prices. While that could be true...

Published Wed, May 05 2008 10:15 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Shorting, Technical View, Investing Strategies, Hedging, Charting, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, Stock Market Weekly, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Portfolio Strategy, Extended Bear Markets, Market Corrections, Tops, Papa Bears, Global Trend, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, The Principle of Proper Money Management, MACD, Trend Reversals, 4-Day Corollary Rule, Bear Market Legs, Bear Market Rally, Bear Stearns, Discounting Mechanism, Shake Outs, Reflex Rally
1973-1974 Redux

The Principle of History. Knowing one’s history gives us guidelines and a basis to work from. So yesterday I began to compare the last Papa Bear market we lived through, 1973-1974, which encompassed the first really oil crisis, to today’s...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:09 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Shorting, Technical View, Stagflation, Inflation, Keys to the Market, The Principle of Primary Trend, Seven Principles, Day to Day Action, Daily Update, 4-Day Rule, Macroeconomics, Portfolio Strategy, Historical Perspectve, Perspective, Oil, Extended Bear Markets, Crashes, Market Corrections, Tops, Mama Bears, The Principle of History, Papa Bears, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Rising Wedge, Trading Rules, Trends, Stock Market Lessons, The Principle of Proper Money Management, 1974, 1973
4, 5, 6, 7 Straight Days! Sequences Can Turn Trends

UPDATE ON THE STOCK MARKET . Written, Tuesday, May 20th, 2008: 6:30 a.m. Another one of those turnaround stock market days yesterday. At 2 p.m. things looked great but then stocks reversed downward and by the close there were more stocks down than up...

Published Tue, May 05 2008 1:28 PM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Charting, Keys to the Market, Dow Transports, Day to Day Action, Update On The Stock Market, 4-Day Rule, Commodity Bull Market, Portfolio Strategy, Tops, Trades, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rallies, Rising Wedge, Trading Rules, Trends, Trend Reversals
Uptrend Channels Remain In Charge; Rising Wedges Psychology Wrong

TECHNICAL VIEW . Written Wednesday, May 14, 2008: I may have been seeing clouds in the sky when there weren’t any. The near term bearish Rising Wedges in a bunch of market indices I wrote about last Thursday don’t seem to have really followed...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:47 AM by Richard Schwartz

Filed under: Principles of the Stock Market, Richard Schwartz, Trading, Technical View, Charting, Keys to the Market, Day to Day Action, Higher Higher & Higher Lows, Daily Update, Portfolio Strategy, The Principle of Technical Analysis, Rising Wedge, UPtrend Channels
Rising Wedge Exhausts Itself; Pullback Forecasted

Written Thursday, May 8th, 2008 TECHNICAL VIEW . Rising Wedges Run Out of Steam! We’ve formed Rising Wedge chart patterns in a number of key market averages, most easily seen in the Dow Industrials , the Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 400 Midcap...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:55 AM

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