LONG TERM US TREASURES.  Yields are key!  As long as long term US Treasury yields stay down, that will help reflate US consumers and thus stabilize the US housing market and thus the whole economy.  And then the bulls may just be proved right that no big recession lies ahead.  But if long rates suddenly turn around and start heading up consistently, like yesterday and this morning, watch out.  Schwartz View:  Much higher long term interest rates will negate the bail out, refinancing option for homeowners and then we’d be right back in the soup.  And would be the straw that likely pushes us into a deep and long lasting recession and mirroring the economy, a severe bear market.