Musing on the Markets

"Inflection Day" Rally Effects - Rotation Underway

text from yesterday's weekly report: As the "Inflection Day" rally rolls on, a rotational pattern seems to be emerging. The recent emerging weakness in Consumer Staples combined with strength in areas such as Consumer Discretionary and Mid...

Published Tue, May 05 2008 2:03 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano

Sectors and Styles Strategy Report: May 12, 2008

excerpts from this week's report: Model Growth Portfolio (MGP) “Yet another strong relative performance week for the MGP (that makes it 6 out of the last 7, 12 out of the last 14, and 14 out of 19 for the year) puts the year-to-date relative...

Published Mon, May 05 2008 9:17 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Weekly Report

Quotable Quotes: Thank you, Mr. Obama

Bush, Clinton, Bush, ..oops.. Thanks to Obama (and barring an unforeseen disaster in gun-happy America), the dynasty of dysfunctional political family rule has come to an end. “It's exciting; I don't know whether I'm going to win or...

Published Fri, May 05 2008 3:09 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Quotable Quotes, George W. Bush, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, Bill Clinton, T.S. Eliot, George H. W. Bush

The "Inflection Day" Rally

The granddaddy of the market confirmation principle, Dow Theory, states that each index (Industrials and Transports) must confirm the other in order for a move (up or down) to be considered sustainable. If one index makes a new recovery (not all-time...

Published Wed, May 05 2008 10:08 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Technical Thursdays

Beyond the Sound Bite: An interview with Maria Fiorini Ramirez

In my interview with the President and CEO of Maria Fiorini Ramirez, Inc. we discussed her no recession call, impacts of a classic credit crunch and deleveraging, the balance sheet strength of US corporations, and the status of the US consumer. The length...

Published Wed, May 05 2008 6:08 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Audio Interview, Beyond the Sound Bite, Maria Fiorini-Ramirez

Even Buffett Isn't Perfect

"The idea of financial panic -- that has been pretty much taken care of," Warren Buffett “Economy May Face Prolonged Pain, History Suggests” Greg Ip, Wall Street Journal Mr. Buffett may be technically correct but that won’t...

Published Tue, May 05 2008 7:03 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Vahan Janjigian

Sectors and Styles Strategy Report: May 5, 2008

in this week’s report : Model Growth Portfolio (MGP ) “The combination of the occasional pricing discrepancy between the S&P 500 and the individual economic sectors (1.15% vs. 1.41%) coupled with the strong performance by the Latin America...

Published Mon, May 05 2008 8:03 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Weekly Report

Quotable Quotes: Satanic Statistics

They say the devil is in the details. Well, how about this detail? On Monday the world population will reach 6,666,666. Perhaps a few words on statistics might alleviate any hellish thoughts. “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and...

Published Fri, May 05 2008 8:26 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Quotable Quotes

Technical Thursdays: May's Market Flowers Will Wilt Before Blooming This Summer

There’s a certain feebleness to the current US equity rally that the accompanying chart* shows quite clearly and should be a cause for concern to the bulls. To begin, it is always more encouraging when Momentum (first indicator) is more robust. Failing...

Published Thu, May 05 2008 9:54 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Valuation, Investment Strategy, Technical Thursdays

News Alert: Brazil Government Debt Upgraded

According to news sources (which have not hit the major newswires as of yet), Brazil's government debt has been upgraded. This had been expected in the second half of this year. So, this announcement caught investors off guard and pleasantly surprised...

Published Wed, Apr 04 2008 3:28 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Beyond the Sound Bite: Vahan Janjigian, CFA, Ph.D.

In my conversation with the Chief Investment Strategist for Forbes, Inc. and author of "Even Buffett Isn't Perfect" we discussed his bearish economic outlook, a cautious equity markets view, why Financials while beginning to look attractive...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 11:02 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Audio Interview, Investment Strategy, Vahan Janjigian

Defining the Credit Crisis

Since the credit crisis began, investors have been bombarded with acronyms and phrases that most had very little direct experience with. Since the credit crisis is far from over and has both real and financial economy affects (that will result in a transformation...

Published Tue, Apr 04 2008 12:14 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Global Financial Stability Report

If Not Now, When?

excerpts from this week's report: "While most investors are rightfully focused on economic and domestic political matters, it would behoove all not to lose sight of the increasingly more probable event of a military strike on Iran before George...

Published Mon, Apr 04 2008 12:34 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Foreign Policy, Geopolitics, Valuation, Weekly Report

Quotable Quotes: Wishful Thinking

Despite the events of recent days, Hillary Clinton and investors in the Financial and Consumer Discretionary sectors may have something in common – wishful thinking. “Nothing is so common-place as to wish to be remarkable.” William Shakespeare “They say...

Published Fri, Apr 04 2008 12:41 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Quotable Quotes

VIX and the Premature Return to Complacency

It could be argued that the recent rise in the medium and longer term US Treasury rates have something to do with concerns re inflation. It also could just as easily be argued that a major part of the rise is due to a lessening of the fear factor related...

Published Thu, Apr 04 2008 11:41 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging

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