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We've Seen This Movie Before

The dramatic news last Friday (re Goldman Sachs) has a more narrow impact (directly on Financials) and a far more limited impact on the broad market as the economic recovery and its sustainability are significantly more important to equity prices overall...

Published 04-21-2010 5:23 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Vinny Catalano, Credit Derivatives

We Have Nothing To Fear But Uncle Sam Himself

No, this won’t be a Limbaugh/Beck/Cato Institute inspired rant against the evils of big government. Rather, today’s commentary focuses on the FUD factor - fear, uncertainty, and doubt – that many small businesses harbor toward where...

Published 11-24-2009 10:05 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: US Consumer, Technical Thursdays, Vinny Catalano, us economy

V Shaped Rally ≠ V Shaped Recovery

Yesterday’s posted interview with David Malpass brings into sharp focus a key aspect of the US economic recovery that far too few investors are tuned into. Specifically, the underappreciated dynamic that second, third, and lower tier companies ...

Published 09-23-2009 12:56 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Valuation, Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano, Globalization, us economy

When, Not If

Now that the S&P 500 has hit my full year target of 1050 (made last December 30 as published in the Wall Street Journal’s “MarketBeat” blog ) - with 3 months still left to go, I might note, cyclical bulls (like me) who have turned...

Published 09-15-2009 11:24 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Valuation, Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano

When Goldman Talks, Investors Listen

For the past two months, I have made the argument that above consensus macro economic data would lead to above consensus earnings results and that investors would see the evidence of this as 2Q09 earnings season got underway. Based on the reports issued...

Published 07-21-2009 10:46 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano, Goldman Sachs, Globalization, us economy

Patience, The Lost Virtue

As the alternate universe of derivatives continues their great detoxification unwind, financial assets struggle to comprehend a world in transition to a new financial and economic order. In the process, fixed income markets remain frozen while equity...

Published 12-02-2008 1:09 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, Valuation, Vinny Catalano, Credit Derivatives

The Not-So-Smart Smart Money

It should be fairly evident by now that heavy redemptions at hedge funds over the past two months contributed significantly to the recent pounding in the one area where markets are liquid – stocks. Moreover, the deleveraging process continues to...

Published 11-25-2008 8:40 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Valuation, Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano

Krugman and El-Erian in the Valley of FUD

In his excellent book, “When Markets Collide”, PIMCO chief Mohammed El-Erian writes about the journey and the destination that the global economy and markets are undergoing and puts in context and helps clarifies much of the current economic...

Published 11-19-2008 7:43 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, US Consumer, Vinny Catalano

Just How Bad Are Corporate Profits?

Today's earnings report from Hewlett-Packard raises the question posed in this blog postings' title. To help shed some light on the subject, consider the corporate results produced thus far re 3Q08. Compiled each week from data published in the...

Published 11-18-2008 11:02 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Vinny Catalano, S&P 500, Credit Derivatives

For Whom The Deep Oversold Bell Tolls (again)

Whatever the fundamental rationale may be – November 15th and hedge fund redemptions; capital gains sales in anticipation of tax increases next year; fears of a global recession; concerns re FAS 140 and QSPEs (more on this one in a future posting...

Published 11-12-2008 1:40 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Technical Thursdays, Vinny Catalano

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Sam Stovall

My conversation with Standard and Poors' Equity Research Chief Investment Strategist includes how stocks tend to perform when one party controls government, fourth quarter of an election year stock performance, first year of a new administration and...

Published 11-05-2008 12:47 PM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Beyond the Sound Bite, Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano

An Overbought Pause

As delightful as the rally has been, a key super short-term technical indicator, Slow Stochastics, is registering an overbought reading (above 80) and a cause for a pause. As the accompanying chart* shows, while the near-term indicators, Momentum and...

Published 11-04-2008 8:05 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Technical Thursdays, Vinny Catalano

Beyond the Sound Bite: My Interview on NPR

The folks over at National Public Radio noticed my blog posting of yesterday re the credit markets, Treasury yields, LIBOR, and the TED spread and did an interview with me on the topic, which you can listen to by clicking on the following link. To listen...

Published 10-08-2008 6:27 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Credit Crisis, deleveraging, Beyond the Sound Bite, Vinny Catalano

Beyond the Sound Bite: An Interview with Vitaliy Katsenelson, CFA

My conversation with the Director of Research for Investment Management Associates and author of "Active Value Investing: Making Money in Range-bound Markets" includes the rationale why equities are in a range bound market, the "active...

Published 05-28-2008 5:55 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Audio Interview, Beyond the Sound Bite, Investment Strategy, Vinny Catalano, Vitaliy Katsenelson

Quotable Quotes: The Art of Deception

It is fascinating to listen to all the pundits wonder just when Senator Clinton will drop out of the race. What amazes me is how they accept at face value her statement that she will stay in the race “until we have a nominee”. To most, that...

Published 05-23-2008 5:44 AM by Vinny Catalano, CFA

Filed under: Quotable Quotes, Hillary Clinton, Vinny Catalano, Abraham Lincoln

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