This Week’s “Signal Investor” – Slightly in Favor of the Bulls!

Dear Friend,

We have a fair amount of unknowns on our plate this month...

  • Is the Fed going to taper or not?
  • Is the US going to attack Syria or not... or... What the heck is going on in the Oval Office and/or will the President break 80?
  • Is Congress going to fund or not fund Obamacare...
  • Should we believe the China numbers...
  • Is Congress going to raise the debt ceiling

With the market up triple digits today (Monday), on a 5-day run to the upside, one has to assume the market is shrugging off all of the above unknowns.

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You can't 'fight-the-tape', so I have put on some trades today (all priced below the market), but I am not committing a lot of cash right now.

Quote worth Quoting Again

"The belief in the possibility of a short decisive war appears to be one of the most ancient and dangerous of human illusions."...


Robert Wilson Lynd

As you can see from the Russell 2000 forecast chart, the bias for the next month or so looks to be Bullish. Keep in mind, this forecast is not totally consistent with the other 3 (S&P 500, DJIA and Nasdaq) broad index forecasts, but if you take all 4 of them together, the takeaway is the market is likely to be more Bullish than Bearish for the next several weeks.

But, things can go from bad-to-worse this month and as you will see in the Bull/Bear & Oscillator report, below, we do not have a consistently bullish forecast, so as much as it pains me to do so, I am looking at the glass as half-empty rather than half-full right now. As such, I am staying small and making sure my stops are set as tight as possible, within the recommendations of our Expected Move criteria per holding.


The Bull/Bear and Oscillator Report...

This week's investor sentiment has a ratio of about 1.5-to-1 in favor of the Bulls. This is the first Bullish trend seen in the last few weeks, but there are very few data points, meaning the conviction is not that significant one way or the other.

The black line (sum of both new long signals and new short sell signals) is beginning to look like the market 'could' be getting ready to move back to its Bullish trend, but being the first week of the month with very little data, it is a bit risky to assume the worst is over; especially since the Syrian issue is still far from resolved.

The time-cycle bias forecast charts for the broader markets continue to have a bit more upward pressure than downward for the next few weeks; the DJIA being the only one of the 4 major index forecasts to show a downward pressure for the next week and a half or so.

If the market is, indeed, getting ready to move higher, waiting a few days to confirm the trend might be worth some serious consideration. If, on the other hand, the market moves lower this week, the bottoming indication in the Oscillator could quickly evaporate.

 

Turner Bull/Bear Forecast
For the Upcoming Week

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The Turner Bull/Bear Forecast™ provides a one-week directional forecast on the market, with [-5] being the most Bearish and a [+5] being the most Bullish. This is predicated on the ratio of number of new Buy Signals to the number of new Short Sell Signals for the previous week. The assumption is investors are becoming more Bullish the more lopsided the ratio becomes in favor of new Buy Signals; and, the converse is true; the more lopsided the ratio becomes in favor of new Short Sell Signals, the more Bearish investor sentiment.

 

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The Turner CrossOver Oscillator™ provides an indication of the over-bought or over-sold condition of the market. The red line (New Short Sell Signals) shows a technical direction and strength (or lack thereof) of investors to push stock prices lower, triggering new Short Sell Signals. The higher the Short Sell Signals line, the more Bearish the market. The black line (Composite of both Short Sell and Long Buy Signals) is the combined impact of both the new Short Sell Signals and the new Buy Signals and is an indication of the degree of oversold or overbought condition of the market. Buying opportunities exist when the Composite of Signals line is moving higher. The higher this line moves, the more Bullish the market. Market bottoms are represented by a change in direction of the Composite of Signals line from moving lower to moving higher. Market corrections become much more likely when the Composite of Signals line crosses the Short Sell Signals line from below the Short Sell Signals line to above the Short Sell Signals line. The market is represented by the green shaded area.


Mark Your Calendars for these FREE Webinars...

Our weekly trading and product exposure webinars are immensely popular. The feedback we are getting is great and from what our customers are telling us, these webinars are really making a big difference in how much value can be obtained from our CycleProphet tools. We offer our customers the best and most profit-producing trade-timing tools available for individual investors. But, if you are not taking advantage of all of this horsepower, you are not able to get the most out of your subscription.

Please plan on either attending these free webinars or at least registering for them so that you can get access to the recordings so that you can watch the webinars at your convenience. You are sure to glean some information from each of these sessions that I know will help you make more money in the market.

Wednesday, September 11, 2013
3:30PM - 4:30PM CT
"Profiting in a Bear Market"

The month of September is historically difficult for the stock market. For most people, they just close their eyes and hope that their portfolios won't lose too much money. At CycleProphet, we love bear markets!

There are more opportunities to make short-term profits and buying stocks at great prices when they become oversold. During this session, Mike Turner will show you how the tools and strategies he developed can help you to profit in any market. He will get into a detailed discussion as to how you can ascertain when a bear market is about to bottom and how best to profit from the rebound that follows. He will talk about strategies that can be executed in any taxable or tax-deferred accounts. Don't miss Mike's most important training session of the year!

To register for the webinar, click here: Profiting in a Bear Market


Wednesday, September 18, 2013
3:30PM - 4:30PM CT
"Understanding Market Prophet and Equity Prophet"

How profitable would your trading be if you knew the likely trend direction of every index, every stock, and every ETF? CycleProphet has the tools for that!

During this webinar, Mike Turner will discuss how he uses both the Market Forecaster and Equity Forecaster time-cycle charts to make profitable trades. He will discuss the nuances of these charts and the proper way to use them for your trading. We will also have a live question and answer session so that you can get your specific questions answered. If you have something you would like us to discuss, please forward your questions to us at [email protected] .

To register for this webinar, click here: Understanding Market Prophet and Equity Prophet


Wednesday, September 25, 2013
3:30PM - 4:30PM CT
"Finding the Best Stocks for Your Portfolio"

How many times have you invested your money into a "great company" only to lose money? Did you buy GE at $65? Dell at $100?

Remember those great companies Enron and Agilent? A lot of people have lost a lot of money. Knowing which stocks are right for your portfolio can be a difficult task. During this educational presentation, Mike Turner will show you how to x-ray a stock - look at its fundamentals, technicals, and likely near-term trend - in order to find the best ones for your investment dollars. If you are interested in finding stocks that are consistently profitable, you can't afford to miss this important session.

To register for this webinar, click here: Finding the Best Stocks for Your Portfolio


Friday, September 27, 2013
3:30PM - 4:30PM CT
"Sabinal Capital Investments Overview"

We receive many requests for more information about our money management activities via Sabinal Capital Investments, my Registered Investment Advisory. During this session, I will discuss my management and performance of the Sabinal One portfolio and will also describe how a managed money service works. I will cover the risk aspect of my long/short strategy and how that strategy is designed to make money in both Bull and Bear markets.

If you are interested or would like to understand more about how I manage money for my clients, please join me in this short, 30-minute presentation.

To register for this webinar, please click here: Sabinal Capital Investments Overview


Signal Investor Portfolio Update...

The portfolio is moving along quite nicely. We had a great week last week and Monday was another solid up day. As I mentioned at the top of this report, I am not at all excited about putting a lot of new money to work. We closed our RGEN trade today since it dropped out of the Top-100 and booked a nice +7.96% profit since we added it to the portfolio two months ago.

All 10 positions are strongly higher with only one not in double-digits. My best holding is BIDU; up +35.79% since it was added to the portfolio back on July 15. The average gain in all 10 positions is a stunning +21.71%!

I am looking to pick up INVN this week. There is a lot to like about this technology stock. It is the number 19 stock out of more than 5,000 stocks. It has great Demand Fundamentals and very strong Demand Technicals (details, below). I like the way the Industry and Sector are bouncing back higher above the trend-line. I also like the increasing volume on increasing share price. The big-boys are liking the stock more and more over time as they are accumulating more and more shares.

If the market continues to move higher (a big IF, I know), then this stock has all the makings of moving higher, as well.

Below are the details:

Ticker : INVN
Entry Price : $17.80
Stop : $15.51

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Demand Fundamentals for: INVN (Total Score = 73 / 100)

Demand Fundamental

Value

Score

Qtr/Qtr Revenue Growth

66.9%

15 / 15

Qtr/Qtr Earnings Growth

130.3%

15 / 15

Year/Year Earnings Growth

37.19%

7 / 10

Year/Year Revenue Growth

43.95%

7 / 10

Multi-Year Revenue Growth

93.06%

8 / 8

Multi-Year Earnings Growth

0%

1 / 8

Relative PE Rank

4 / 50

4 / 6

Return On Equity

23

5 / 5

Yield

.00%

0 / 5

Institutional Holding

54.98%

6 / 6

Stock Price

18

1 / 4

Fundamental Peer Group Rating

33 / 50

4 / 8

 

Demand Technicals for: INVN (Total Score = 85 / 100)

Demand Technical

Value

Score

Technical Signal

LONG

35 / 35

Trading Zone

ZONE 3

10 / 10

Average Trading Volume

3,230,305

10 / 10

Industry Status

LONG

20 / 20

Sector Status

LONG

10 / 10

Technical Signal Age

115 Days

0 / 15

Current Stop Loss

15.51

 

 

More Information for: INVN

Summary Stats

Summary Status

90-Day Sector Risk

Previous Close: $18.33

Technical: LONG

0-30 Days: BULLISH

Market Cap: 1.58 Bil

Fundamental: STRONG BUY

30-60 Days: BULLISH

Long Stop: 15.51

Composite: STRONG BUY

60-90 Days: BULLISH

Short Stop: 20.48

   

Expected Move: 1.78

   

Optionable: Y

   

Weekly Optionable: N

   

 

InvenSense, Inc (INVN) - InvenSense, Inc. designs, develops, markets, and sells micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) gyroscopes for motion tracking devices in consumer electronics. The company delivers motion interface solutions based on its multi-axis gyroscope technology that target smartphones and tablets, console and portable video gaming devices, digital still and video cameras, smart televisions, 3D mice, navigation devices, toys, and health and fitness accessories.

Its products include 9-axis motiontracking devices, such as MPU-9150, MPU-9250, and MPU-9350 that combine a 3-axis gyroscope, a 3-axis accelerometer, and a 3-axis compass with an onboard digital motion processor- six-axis motion-processors, including MPU-6000 and MPU- 6500 that integrate a three-axis gyroscope and three-axis accelerometer for the smartphone and tablet markets- and MPU-3000 motion-processors consisting of three-axis gyroscopes digital outputs and software development kits to enable motion interface application development. The company also offers digital gyroscopes consisting of ITG-3000, ITG-3521, and ITG-3501 three-axis digital output products- and IXZ-2020, IDG-2020, IDG-2021, and IDG-2030 optical image stabilization products, as well as MPU-3300, a single-chip integrated 3-axis gyroscope for industrial applications.

InvenSense, Inc. sells its products to manufacturers of consumer electronics devices, original design manufacturers, and contract manufacturers through a direct sales organization and indirect channel of distributors internationally. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

My $17.80 price is below the close on Monday. I am hopeful of picking it up sometime this week. If I don't get it by the close on Friday, I'll let it go.


Closing Thoughts...

For a market facing some of the more significant geo-political overhangs and looming US Congressional battles over budgets and the debt ceiling, you would think that there would be more sellers than buyers.

But that's not the case, obviously. I learned a long time ago that, more times than not, paying very close attention to what my CycleProphet analysis results are and not so much to what the talking heads and news-of-the-day is, generally proves to be the better course of action.

My Oscillator, forecast charts and trade-timing indicators are telling me to be very mildly Bullish. My emotions tell me that we could be facing the early stages of World War III. My rules, tools and indicators do not know anything about politics or the powder keg of potential eruptions in the Middle-East and that is because computer programs are completely unemotional... and that is a good thing.

I would love to swerve over into what I think about the current political machinations frothing up in Washington, Russia and the Middle-East. I do happen to believe there is a lot that can happen that can hugely impact our investments and trades. But, this venue is not the place for that kind of speculation and political discourse.

I am sure you are just as concerned and apprehensive as I am about what is going on in the world right now. It seems that we are whistling past the graveyard. At the same time, I also know that the odds are very good that nothing can happen to the market overnight that my long/short strategy cannot adjust to.

We will just have to wait and see if political intelligence or stupidity prevails in the days and weeks ahead. In the meantime, the market is moving higher and we are moving along with it.

Have a great week in the market!

Your trusting-my-rules-tools-and-strategies portfolio manager,

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Mike Turner

Founder and President
CycleProphet, Inc.

 P.S. If you'd like to know more about CycleProphet tools, or to subscribe, click here:  https://secure.cycleprophet.com/subscribe/

 

IMPORTANT!

This letter is informational only and is NOT a recommendation to buy or sell securities. Any suggested trading strategies may or may not reflect trades that I plan to make in my personal accounts and/or may be similar to trades I have made or will make in the management of my client accounts. In this venue, I do not know your financial situation and I am NOT your financial advisor. As such you should NOT attempt to buy or sell any securities mentioned in this letter unless you first obtain the advice of a trusted professional financial advisor. Buying or selling securities involves risk which often results in significant financial loss. IF YOU BUY OR SELL A SECURITY BASED SOLELY UPON INFORMATION PROVIDED HEREIN, YOU WILL MOST LIKELY LOSE MONEY.

 

CycleProphet, Inc., 10002 Glencarrie Lane, Austin, TX 78750 (1-888-628-5556)





Posted 09-10-2013 8:36 PM by Mike Turner

Comments

mgvvmsrg wrote re: This Week’s “Signal Investor” – Slightly in Favor of the Bulls!
on 10-04-2017 11:30 PM

1

mgvvmsrg wrote re: This Week’s “Signal Investor” – Slightly in Favor of the Bulls!
on 10-04-2017 11:30 PM

1