John Mauldin's Outside the Box

John Mauldin reads hundreds of articles, reports, books, newsletters, etc. and each week he brings one essay from another analyst that should stimulate your thinking. John will not agree with all the essays, and some will make us uncomfortable, but the varied subject matter will offer thoughtful analysis that will challenge our minds to think Outside The Box.

John Mauldin's Outside the Box

Blog Subscription Form

  • Email Notifications
    Go

Archives

  • What is True Diversification?

    Introduction This week we take a look at one of the more common problems I see as I counsel investors, a lack of diversification. Much of the time that stems from not having a philosophy of investing and defaulting to simple selections that over time...
  • China's Engineered Drop

    Introduction With Tuesday's market correction being the single biggest decline in the U.S. markets since 9/11, all eyes are focused on figuring out what exactly happened as well as what is going to happen next. This week's Special Edition of Outside...
  • Life after Debt - Russia's New Millennium

    Introduction I got a lot of response from my recent letter on South Africa. Today we turn to another emerging market country. Since the late 90's, what country's equity market has performed the best? At first thought, many might say China or India...
  • 'Capital Ideas' Or 'CRAP'?

    Introduction Today I am pleased to present to you an exceptionally interesting article for this week's Outside the Box. But before I do, let me say that it is roughly double in length as normal, so please read it at your leisure. Before I give my...
  • Russia's Great-Power Strategy

    Introduction Today's special edition Outside the Box discusses the long-term strategy that Russian President Vladimir Putin is setting in place. Stratfor President George Friedman has written an intriguing article on what he sees as some motives,...
  • Destitute At 80: Retiring In Secular Cycles

    Introduction Does the concept of retirement sound scary? If it does don't feel that you're alone. A lot of issues and concerns come along with the subject, the most familiar of which is financial freedom. Even after you have saved a substantial...
  • If Fed Funds Rate 'Fails' to Fall

    Introduction Today's Outside the Box is by my good friend and PIMCO's Managing Director, Paul McCulley. In his article "If Fed Funds Rate 'Fails' to Fall," Paul discusses the mindset behind the decision making of central banks...
  • China's Concerns in 2007: Fears of a Perfect Storm

    Introduction Today's special edition Outside the Box covers the looming political concerns of China in the new year. Leading China expert at Stratfor, Rodger Baker, has written an excellent analysis on the issues faced by the current and future leadership...
  • A Short Covering Rally

    How do you spell short-selling rally, gentle reader? In this week's Outside the Box we look at several short items (pardon the pun) from various sources, which paint a not pretty picture. The first hit my inbox this morning from Art Cashin (of CNBC fame and also Head Floor Trader for UBS). "Deconstructing The Rally - The sharp rally that sprang from the new short sale restrictions has been spiky and, in several ways, very powerful. The impact of the short rule change was evident. As Barron's notes, the 150 stocks with the heaviest short interest rallied a stunning 15%. The stocks with the smallest short positions rose only 2%. That may be a function of existing shorts scrambling to cover to pass the new, belated, scrutiny. That thesis got added weight from a couple of areas. The Merrill Lynch results got mostly panned by several analysts and TV pundits. Nonetheless, the stock closed 24% above its lows for the week. Also, the financial sector ETF rose nearly 25% from the lows. "All of the above suggests that the rally is based on the two pronged government move. First, put a safety net under the financials, especially Fannie and Freddie. Second, restrict opportunities to sell the financials short. We'll wait to see if those efforts have further legs this week."...
  • The Geopolitics of Iran

    For nearly 30 years, long before it was a charter member of the "Axis of Evil," Iran and the US have been locked in a hate-hate relationship. Walk down the street any Friday afternoon, and you're as likely to hear "Death to America!" as "Hi Ali, how are you?" Three decades of animosity, an externally opaque society, and no trade relations between the two countries mean that many of us have just the barest understanding of what's really going on over there. But whether it's a negotiated settlement with the US over Iraq, or a war-risk premium for crude oil, to threats and counterthreats with Israel and the US, Iran's decisions have enormous impact on the global economic system. All of the sudden, the picture of the "mad mullahs" you get from the papers seems expensively inadequate....
  • Quarterly Forecast: Third Quarter 2008

    As we begin the new quarter, now is an excellent time to take stock of your basic investment thesis. Ask yourself if your allocations still reflect what you think the world is going to look like over the next several months. And as part of that process, I'm here to tell you that making "financial" decisions based solely on "financial" inputs grossly oversimplifies the way the world really works. As I've said before, investing in debt, equity, or commodity markets without geopolitical intelligence is like trading juice futures without getting a weather forecast. You can do it, but good luck to you. I get my geopolitical intelligence from Stratfor. My friend George Friedman and his team have just published their 3rd Quarter Forecast. I got George to give me a copy I can share with you in this Special Edition of Outside the Box. As a Stratfor Member, you can get the 3Q Forecast - as well as their other forecasts and daily analyses - at a preferential rate available to my readers by clicking here. I strongly encourage you to add this valuable weapon to your investing arsenal....
  • A Kind Word for Inflation

    This week's Outside the Box will challenge a few of your base assumptions. Paul McCulley, the managing director at PIMCO, offers us a kind word for inflation and the reasons that the Fed will be on hold for a lot longer than the markets currently think. And part of that is to avoid a real recession or even a depression. Getting this debate right is important. These are indeed interesting times we live in. I look forward to being with Paul at the end of July on our Maine fishing expedition, where he can defend his proposition to the group of economists and analysts gathered there. Have a great week....
  • Intelligence Guidance

    This week I want to share with you one of the more important tools in my arsenal for keeping up with what is going on in the world. As I've told you before, George Friedman and his team at Stratfor are my go-to guys for geopolitical intelligence. Their insights into this facet of the world are simply without peer. Now I want you to see their Intelligence Guidance which they publish each Friday for the upcoming week; last week's edition is below....
  • The End of the Inflation Scare?

    I mentioned in last Saturday's letter a report by Louis Gave of GaveKal fame on whether inflation may be waning and its importance. Louis gave me permission to use it as this week's Outside the Box. It is typical of the thoughtful analytical work they do. Louis and his partners and associates at GaveKal write some of the more thought-provoking material I read. They really challenge my position on numerous matters, causing me to look at many items from a different view. That of course, makes this particular piece good for Outside the Box. Whether you agree or disagree, you need to know why you hold a position. If you can't articulate the "against," how can you be sure you truly understand the "for"? I think given the current debate on inflation, this week's Outside the Box is a must read....