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John Mauldin's Outside the Box

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  • When the Chickens Come Home to Roost

    Can the credit crisis get any worse? In this week's Outside the Box my London partner Niels Jensen shows that it indeed can. Banks, and mainly European banks, have large exposure to emerging market debt of all types through both sovereign, corporate and individual loans. Just as banks have had to write down large losses from the subprime crisis and other related problems, next will come a wave of potential losses from yet another source. Niels then goes on to give us a look the size and problems with hedge fund deleveraging. Altogether, this is a very interesting letter and one that is written from a non-US point of view that I think you will find instructive....
  • Where is My Swap Line?

    The G-7 countries now have what amounts to access to the US Fed's window for dollars for their banks. But what of the rest of the world? Brad Setser, an analyst who writes a blog for the Council on Foreign Relations, ask some very interesting questions and points out some big holes in the world economic landscape. If you can't get dollars what does that do to your currency? This contributes to the rise in the dollar against some emerging market currencies. Setser asks: 'Where is my swap line? And will the diffusion of financial power Balkanize the global response to a broadening crisis?' You can read some of his other material at http://blogs.cfr.org/setser/. Setser is an applied international economist with experience at the U.S. Treasury and the International Monetary Fund. Currently examining central bank reserve growth, sovereign wealth funds, and the political implications of emerging market financing of the United States. Author of the recent Council Special Report, Sovereign Wealth and Sovereign Power....