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John Mauldin's Outside the Box

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  • Is the Recession Over?

    There is some debate about whether the recession is over. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), a non-governmental organization made up of economists, has a committee that meets and decides after the fact when recessions begin and when they end. Martin Feldstein, the former president of the NBER, focusing on the job market, said last November that 'the current downturn is likely to last much longer than previous downturns ... We will be lucky to see the recession end in 2009.'

    I have called this recovery a Statistical Recovery, in that some of the normal metrics are only getting better in comparison to very bad numbers a year ago. It is likely that we will still have not recovered to the level of economic activity we enjoyed at the peak of the last cycle over two years ago on a nominal basis. This is highly unusual and lengthy for a recession.

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  • Growth in Potential GDP

    This week I offer you two short pieces for your Outside the Box Reading Pleasure. The first is from my friends at GaveKal and is part of their daily letter. They address the real difference between those who think we will have a consumer led recovery (Keynesian) and those who think we will have a corporate profit led recovery (classical economics or Schumpeterian). This is actually a very important debate and distinction. I find that GaveKal pushes me to think almost more than any other group, as they constantly challenge my assumptions. (www.gavekal.com)

    The second piece comes from Dr. John Hussman of Hussman Funds (www.hussmanfunds.com). He offers us some very insightful analysis on the potential for growth going forward, which goes along with what I have been writing: We are in for a longer period of below trend growth, which does not bode well for corporate profits in the long run. I think you will get a lot out of these two items.

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