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In today’s Outside the Box, Sheraz Mian, Director of Research for Zacks Investment Research, gives us a thorough overview of corporate earnings trends for the past several quarters, along with consensus expectations for this year and next. Then he asks, “How realistic are these expectations?”

Not very, he says, and proceeds to tell us why. If we accept his analysis – and he admits right up front that it runs counter to the consensus – then we should be asking ourselves, how does a potential falloff in earnings vs. expectations matter, and why is it important at this particular juncture? I’ll let Sheraz answer those questions, too – he does so convincingly – but I’ll just add that his analysis is a significant piece in the puzzle we’re all putting together here in this tipping-point year of 2013.

New readers to my musings often find it interesting, when they meet me in person, to find me quite an optimistic person, given the nature of my current predictions about the economy. And regarding the short term, defined as less than five years, my writing is admittedly less than sanguine. We do have some problems that are not easily dealt with. And even longer-term, those of a bearish natural disposition can find reasons a-plenty to tone it down.

Today I offer something a little different from normal economic fare. As I keep saying, I think it is important that as business people and entrepreneurs we look for ways to increase our business while others are pulling back. While innovation can mean new technologies (and their costs!), in my experience it is often even better to figure out a new way to offer your products and services to the market, leveraging (in a good way!) your existing work.

Today, simply because you are one of my 1 million closest friends, I have arranged for you to receive absolutely free and with no strings attached some of the best (if not THE best) marketing and innovation materials I have ever read, from a long-time friend of mine who has sold this information for tens of thousands of dollars (and more!). It is my way of saying thanks for allowing me to come into your life each week. (The link is near the end of the letter.)

This week's Outside the Box will be unusual. Rather than one essay, I give you a number of short ones, and links that are representative of the confusion that is Europe, along with a little history. As I noted this weekend, last week's Eurozone announcement was short of details, and very little of the real work had been done. Merkel has to get her own country on board, keep the other nations that are in trouble from demanding haircuts, and keep the markets from trashing Italian and Spanish debt. Berlusconi has to figure out how to get the Italian budget balanced while staying out of jail and "balancing" his social calendar. Maybe he can dollar-cost average with a 70-year-old date? (Sorry, that was snarky, but it is so easy.)

Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington of Hoisington Investment Management write a “Quarterly Review and Outlook” that is a must-read for me. This quarter they focus on US monetary policy, noting that “After peaking at 1.69 in the second quarter of 2010, M2 velocity declined for four consecutive quarters, and we estimate that a major contraction in velocity to 1.59 is likely for the third quarter.” (I mentioned the importance of the velocity of money in judging inflation vs. deflation prospects in this week’s e-letter, too.)

They say, “If our analysis of a new contraction in GDP is correct, the U.S. economy should be viewed as operating in the midst of a long-term slump, regardless of terminology.”

Folks, this piece from STRATFOR has compelled me to focus on the US for one more day before I head off to Europe. You've seen the articles and other insights I send on occasion from George Friedman, my friend and prophetic author of The Next 100 Years and The Next Decade, both bestsellers. Well, this article takes the cake. George is the founder of a geopolitical intelligence company called STRATFOR, whose focus is international affairs. But on the rare occasion when domestic politics and international affairs intersect, it's always a treat to get George's insight.

I don't even want to give away any spoilers here. It's better to let you follow first-hand, as George builds his argument and arrives at a profound final conclusion. Let me just say: In Endgame, as you know, I predict that we will deal with the deficit in a controlled manner, or face disastrous consequences. Here, we learn how the realities of the next 14 months before the presidential election present some potential global consequences of their own.

I love Grant Williams and his writing in his letter Things That Make You Go Hmmm... And this week's Outside the Box is the first section from his recent post, where he starts with a brief history of Gadhafi and ends up giving us a tutorial on oil pricing. This may be "inside baseball" (too much detail) for some of you; but these details are important, as the very ground of oil pricing is shifting away from the traditional sources. What will the mainstream media do? Wonder when they will shift, which will result in a LOT higher costs for most of the world. Besides, this is a fun read, and Grant is a great writer.

We all remember junior high geography (well, some of it, anyway). But somehow it didn't cover how critical geography is in the development of a nation... and that it is, for example, the primary reason the United States became a global power. The territory of the U.S. simply comprises all the right geographic elements to make its occupants an inevitable global force. Yesterday, STRATFOR, my favorite source for geopolitical analysis of world affairs, published The Inevitable Empire, part I of a fascinating assessment of the United States. In it you'll learn how geography shaped the nation's behavior throughout history, and what it means for U.S. foreign policy today. It's a perfect example of the kind of insight STRATFOR provides that you won't find anywhere else.