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  • Visegrad: A New European Military Force, by George Friedman

    Today, I'm sending you a week-old article. Fear not, dear reader—though the news peg is several days gone, the significance is historic... and when this author says "pay attention," I do. Today's piece is from my friend George Friedman, founder & CEO of STRATFOR.

    During the week of Palestinian protests and the IMF scandal, George chose to write about an obscure decision by Poland, Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Hungary to form a battlegroup. Though you may wonder why, we're all about to care about the Visegrad Group.

    The decision revolves around the new reality of a resurgent Russia, a weakened Europe and a fractured NATO. I don't think you'll wonder why you should care about Russia, Europe and NATO.

    ...
  • Second Quarter Forecast 2009: Global Trends

    I've been in this business a long time. Some days it feels like a very long time. But never in all the years that I've been in the financial markets have I felt like business per se has less impact on my investment decisions. Let me explain.

    GM shares have gone from being a claim on earnings from car sales to being a call option on whether the US government will extend another lifeline. Banks' capital structures have gone from being the province of Boards of Directors and CFOs to the "expertise" of Congressional committees and appointed regulators. Used to be when I thought about Financial Centers New York and London came to mind. Instead now I have to think about Washington and Brussels.

    My friend George Friedman and his team at STRATFOR are where I turn when I need help thinking about these new realities. George's team provides me context and understanding of the environment in which financial developments are going to take place. I may tweak him about his ties, but if you saw George speak at my conference in La Jolla, you know that he's an absolutely compelling speaker. And it's small wonder that his latest book spent those weeks on the New York Times bestseller list too.

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