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Quarterly Review and Outlook - First Quarter 2008

This week's Outside the Box is from my friends at Hoisington Management. While somewhat technical, they make the case that a slowdown in consumer spending is inevitable. This is worth taking some time and thinking about. Quoting: "This means...

Published Mon, Apr 04 2008 9:08 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Inflation, Credit Crisis, GDP, Consumer Spending, Interest Rates, Household Wealth, Consumer Debt, Hoisington Management

US Consumer Confidence Heads South

In the second installment of our special two day Outside the Box letter, we have good friend Greg Weldon's giving us his thoughts in his regular "Weldon's Money Monitor." Consumer expenditures account for approximately 2/3rds of U.S...

Published Tue, Dec 12 2007 4:00 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Greg Weldon, GDP, Recession, LIBOR, Consumer Confidence

Quarterly Review and Outlook - Third Quarter 2007

This week in Outside the Box, Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Management undertake an assiduous analysis of the economy, specifically quantifying the underlying impact of the real estate market on GDP growth through the follow-on adverse...

Published Mon, Oct 10 2007 2:37 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Mortgage, Housing Crisis, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, Quarterly Reveiw, Recession, Wealth Erosion, Bond Market

Quarterly Review and Outlook: Second Quarter 2007

Introduction This week in Outside the Box, we take a closer look at the bond market and its underlying drivers. HMIC's Van Hoisington and Dr. Lacy Hunt anticipate lower inflationary pressures on account of faltering consumer spending and further deterioration...

Published Mon, Jul 07 2007 1:12 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Housing, Inflation, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, Bonds, Quarterly Reveiw, Economic Forecast

The Missing Link to Global Rebalancing

Introduction Over the past couple of years, I've written quite a bit about how the global economy has taken shape and why it is important to understand it when building one's investment portfolio. There have been many market pundits saying that...

Published Mon, Apr 04 2007 3:25 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: GDP, John Mauldin, U.S. Dollar, Globalization, Stephen S. Roach, Global Rebalancing

Quarterly Review and Outlook - Fourth Quarter 2006

Introduction On Friday, I wrote my annual forecast, " The Goldilocks Recession ," on what investment themes I expect in the coming year. This week's Outside the Box will follow up on the subject with an excellent piece written by Van Hoisington...

Published Mon, Jan 01 2007 4:18 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Mortgage, Housing, Inflation, Dr. Lacy Hunt, Van Hoisington, GDP, John Mauldin, Bonds, Quarterly Reveiw, Consumer Spending, Economic Forecast

Global Transitions

Introduction With a new year just weeks away, investors are weighing expectations and asking questions about what lies ahead. Each year presents its own set of opportunities and challenges, especially in are ever-increasing global economy. Today's...

Published Mon, Dec 12 2006 4:32 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: China, GDP, John Mauldin, Economic Forecast, Recession, Stephen S. Roach, Global Economy

Alpha/Beta Anemia

Introduction After a great holiday weekend, I hope that everybody is enjoying the recurring challenge of finding new ways to creatively eat turkey leftovers. For today's "Outside the Box," we turn our attention towards an interesting piece...

Published Mon, Nov 11 2006 4:35 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Bill Gross, GDP, John Mauldin, Economic Forecast, Beta, Alpha, GDP Growth Rate

Beyond The Horizon: Economics & EPS

Introduction I am excited to present to you today a very interesting piece by my good friend and local Dallas resident, Ed Easterling. Ed has performed an in-depth study on how several key fundamentals have performed over time and how they are likely...

Published Mon, Nov 11 2006 4:36 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: GDP, John Mauldin, Economic Forecast, P/E Ratio, Ed Easterling, GDP Growth Rate, Business Cycle, Corporate Profits

Inflation, Bond Yields, And The Market

Introduction Today's "Outside the Box" will be a combination of 2 different writings. The 1st is an email that I received from Research Affiliates Chairman Rob Arnott in response to my letter last Friday, "Honey, I Created a Bubble...

Published Mon, Nov 11 2006 4:42 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Inflation, John Hussman, GDP, Yield Curve, John Mauldin, Bonds, GDP Growth Rate, Bond Yields, Rob Arnott

Time-Varying Variables Vary

Introduction Last Friday, I wrote about That Stubborn Yield Curve in my Thoughts from the Frontline letter. In it, I quoted a few paragraphs by Pimco's Paul McCulley, but upon reflection, I feel that his whole letter is worthy of taking a look at...

Published Mon, Oct 10 2006 4:44 PM by John Mauldin

Filed under: Housing, The Fed, GDP, Yield Curve, John Mauldin, Paul McCulley, Economic Forecast, Leverage, Inverted Yield Curve, Fed Funds Rate, Time-Varying

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