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  • STRATFOR's 2011 Second Quarter Forecast

    I always look forward the beginning of a new quarter, because it gives me a chance to read STRATFOR's update of their annual forecast, which I shared with you in January. Their quarterly forecast explores developing geopolitical trends in each region of the world.  In recent months and quarters I've noticed a much wider recognition in published discussions of "geopolitical risk" as it relates to investments.  Of course geopolitical risk is nothing new to my long-time readers who've been plugged into STRATFOR for years.

    This Q2 forecast is a long read, but it addresses everything from China's battle with inflation, to Russia's economic opportunity, to the stalemate in Libya's civil war. They do a fantastic, and usually spot-on, job of telling you what to look out for.  (And when they aren't spot-on, they're up-front about what they missed and why).

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  • STRATFOR's 2011 Annual Forecast

    As you know, I'm an avid researcher when it comes to my own annual forecast, which you saw a couple of weeks ago. One of my favorite resources is STRATFOR, a global intelligence company founded by my friend George Friedman. Their focus is geopolitics, which means they cover political, economic and military developments all around the world. They have an annual forecast of their own, and George has been gracious enough to allow me to share it with you. As long-time OTB readers may know, STRATFOR's annual forecast can be very provocative.

    Here are some examples of this year's themes:

    - The U.S. is unlikely to withdraw from Iraq as promised in 2011.
    - The U.S. economy will grow.
    - In Europe, more countries will need bailouts. (A couple of names might surprise you.)
    - Russian-German relations will strengthen.
    - Japan will rot, but it will rot in seclusion.

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