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  • Half & Half: Why Rowing Works

    For today's special Christmas Eve Outside the Box, my good friend Ed Easterling brings us pearls of wisdom on the subject of rowing vs. sailing. "Rowing?" you ask. "Sailing?" And, you're thinking, "I would surely prefer to be a sailor." Well, not so fast. Let Ed explain why putting your back into your investing process can pay off handsomely. A nice piece to think about as you are mashing the potatoes or icing the cake. You can see more of Ed’s marvelous work at www.crestmontresearch.com.

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  • Converging On The Horizon

    This week’s Outside the Box is with an old friend to long-time readers, Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. Ed is usually on the bullish side, but his research of late points to a few warning signs that say some cycle convergences may be pointing to problems. And that coincides with my macro concerns. As usual, lots of charts and data, but easy to read and understand. And, for those with stock market investments, very thought-provoking and timely.

    I write this at 34,000 feet on the way back to Dallas. I met with a few Congressmen this morning and then ten Senators (!) this afternoon. It seems that some of them had read Endgame and rounded up a rather impressive group to come hear me speak for about 90 minutes. No Powerpoint, just off the cuff, with lots of very pointed questions, and they were taking notes (mostly). Some have been my long-time readers (go figure). It was bipartisan. Actually tripartisan, as independent Joe Lieberman was there, and asked some very hard questions. They cut me no slack and I gave no quarter. It was a very frank discussion. This is a group that is quite worried (I should say seriously worried) about our future, and they let me know there were more like them. On both sides of the aisle. It was actually somewhat encouraging, except that they are not optimistic. There was a sense of palpable concern that nothing might be done until we have a crisis, and so they realize the need to act. They are working to get their fellow Senators on board. Maybe there is hope. Without naming names, I was particularly impressed with the questions from a “Tea Party” Senator when I talked about the “glide-path option” and what going too fast would mean – as in a depression. I think he got it. We’ll see. He took the most notes, although Portman (who ran OMB so has a serious resumé and credibility on budgets) was going through paper rather fast as well.

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  • Game Changer

    This week we look at another except from Ed Easterling's gonzo book on stock market return projections called Probable Outcomes. This section is entitled Game Changer, and it is that and more. (Again thanks to Ed for letting us read his work!)

    Game Changer is a thought-provoking, somewhat detailed, analysis with two major surprises.  The first is that GDP growth was well-below average last decade (a trend that could continue this decade)…and second, slowing growth has a substantial negative effect on valuations (P/E).  This ties well into my own Endgame and provides "implications" about slower growth, etc.  (which is what I project from work of my own). Slower growth drives lower P/Es (even without higher inflation or deflation) and could drop the market by a third or so relative to "normal" cycles.

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  • Stay Out of the ROOM

    One of my favorite analysts is Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. We used to get together a whole lot more when he lived in Dallas, but he has since moved to the wilds of Oregon. Ed’s first book, Unexpected Returns, is a classic work that I think is a must-read for all stock market investors.

    And now he favors us with yet another book, called Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights, in which he takes on the mostly silly research, done by so many analysts, that purports to show what an investor can expect to make from his retirement portfolio over time. I can’t tell you how disastrous this simplistic analysis can be for retirees.

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  • Destitute At 80: Retiring In Secular Cycles

    Introduction Does the concept of retirement sound scary? If it does don't feel that you're alone. A lot of issues and concerns come along with the subject, the most familiar of which is financial freedom. Even after you have saved a substantial...
  • Beyond The Horizon: Economics & EPS

    Introduction I am excited to present to you today a very interesting piece by my good friend and local Dallas resident, Ed Easterling. Ed has performed an in-depth study on how several key fundamentals have performed over time and how they are likely...