February 2011 - John Mauldin's Outside the Box

John Mauldin reads hundreds of articles, reports, books, newsletters, etc. and each week he brings one essay from another analyst that should stimulate your thinking. John will not agree with all the essays, and some will make us uncomfortable, but the varied subject matter will offer thoughtful analysis that will challenge our minds to think Outside The Box.

John Mauldin's Outside the Box

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  • Want a New Cardiovascular System?

    This week’s Outside the Box is again a little unusual. Some of you will think, “There goes Mauldin again, dreaming of a brave new world of biotech.” Except this tine the brave new world is here. My friend Pat Cox of Breakthrough Technology Alert has written a piece for me on what he and I think is potentially one of the most important scientific breakthroughs of the last few decades. Normally I don’t mention specific companies, but in this case we can’t talk about the breakthrough mentioning the company name. Disclosure: I own a small number of shares I bought over a year ago. This is one of a number of companies I am buying as part of my biotech holdings for the very long term. Do not chase this stock if it starts to go up. Be patient.

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  • Stay Out of the ROOM

    One of my favorite analysts is Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research. We used to get together a whole lot more when he lived in Dallas, but he has since moved to the wilds of Oregon. Ed’s first book, Unexpected Returns, is a classic work that I think is a must-read for all stock market investors.

    And now he favors us with yet another book, called Probable Outcomes: Secular Stock Market Insights, in which he takes on the mostly silly research, done by so many analysts, that purports to show what an investor can expect to make from his retirement portfolio over time. I can’t tell you how disastrous this simplistic analysis can be for retirees.

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  • Egypt's Next Crisis: The Economy

    Mubarak resigned, journalists packed their gear, and CNN went back to talking about obesity statistics - but Egypt's troubles are far from over. After weeks of protests (leading to strikes and, understandably, no tourists), the country's economy took an estimated 1.5 billion-dollar punch to the face.

    This appears to be the tip of the iceberg for Egypt's economical woes, however - as you'll read in the piece below from STRATFOR, a global intelligence company I've come to know and love. Mubarak's gone... as are his son's banking reforms. Resurrected is the military's practice of borrowing money from banks with no intention of paying it back - likely leading to a debt level of bailout proportions. The nation's not about to find the extra $16 billion a year it needs in its couch cushions.

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  • Eat People

    This week’s Outside the Box is a little unusual, even for me. But it will be fun, informative, and thought-provoking. My friend Andy Kessler has written another irreverent, gonzo book called Eat People: And Other Unapologetic Rules for Game-Changing Entrepreneurs. He has graciously allowed me to copy his introduction as this week’s missive.

    Andy gives us 12 Rules and a Bonus Rule that characterize game-changing companies. They are: Scale, Waste, Horizontal, Edge, Productive, Adaptive, Eat People, Markets, Exceptionalism, Market Entrepreneur, Zero Marginal Cost, Virtual Pipe, and Highest Return. Find a company that embodies these rules early, and you get in on the ground floor of the next Apple or Microsoft.

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  • A Sideways View of the World

    Today's OTB features an excerpt from my friend Vitaliy Katsenelson's recently published The Little Book of Sideways Markets. Vitaliy is CIO at Investment Management Associates, a value investment firm in Denver, and he is a prolific and engaging writer (you can find and subscribe to his articles at http://ContrarianEdge.com). I had the pleasure of writing the foreword to Vitaliy's book, and here is a brief excerpt:

    "Markets go from long periods of appreciation to long periods of stagnation. These cycles last on average 17 years. If you bought an index in the United States in 1966, it was 1982 before you saw a new high – that was the last secular sideways market in the United States (until the current one). Investing in that market was difficult, to say the least. But buying in the beginning of the next secular bull market in 1982 and holding until 1999 saw an almost 13 times return. Investing was simple, and the rising markets made geniuses out of many investors and investment professionals.

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  • Intelligence Guidance: The Situation in Egypt

    When protests started in Egypt last week, mainstream news outlets cried "democracy!" and compared the situation in Egypt to the Berlin Wall and Tienanmen Square. Meanwhile, STRATFOR (an intelligence company I've followed for years) spoke of a different possibility.  At the time it may have been counter-intuitive for most institutions to draw parallels to 1979 Iran, but my friend and the company's founder George Friedman produced an internal document that raised that possibility.   Days later, news outlets began asking questions about groups like the Muslim Brotherhood, and realizing there could be other forces behind the unrest than simple calls for Western-style democracy.

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