January 2011 - John Mauldin's Outside the Box

John Mauldin reads hundreds of articles, reports, books, newsletters, etc. and each week he brings one essay from another analyst that should stimulate your thinking. John will not agree with all the essays, and some will make us uncomfortable, but the varied subject matter will offer thoughtful analysis that will challenge our minds to think Outside The Box.

John Mauldin's Outside the Box

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  • Pavlov’s Bulls

    My long-time readers are familiar with Jeremy Grantham of GMO, as I quote him a lot. He is one of the more brilliant and talented value managers (and I should mention, very successful on behalf of his clients). He writes a quarterly letter that I regard as a must-read. In fact, anything Jeremy writes is a must-read. This week’s OTB is a little longer than most, but it is actually two separate parts, which can be read at different times – but you want to take the time. He makes his predictions for the year in the first part, and gives us some valuable insights into the stock market in the second. The first part reads quick. Think through the second part.

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  • 2011 Investment Strategies: 9 Buys, 9 Sells

    This week I am really delighted to be able to give you a condensed version of Gary Shilling's latest INSIGHT newsletter for your Outside the Box. Each month I really look forward to getting Gary's latest thoughts on the economy and investing. In 2009 in his forecast issue he suggested 13 investment ideas, all of which were profitable by the end of the year. Last year he gave us 16 which the large majority hit the mark. It is not unusual for Gary to give us over 75 charts and tables in his monthly letters along with his commentary, which makes his thinking unusually clear and accessible. Gary was among the first to point out the problems with the subprime market and predict the housing and credit crises. His track record in this decade has been quite good. I want to thank Gary and his associate Fred Rossi for allowing us to view this smaller version of his latest letter, where he gives us 18 investable strategies for 2011

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  • STRATFOR's 2011 Annual Forecast

    As you know, I'm an avid researcher when it comes to my own annual forecast, which you saw a couple of weeks ago. One of my favorite resources is STRATFOR, a global intelligence company founded by my friend George Friedman. Their focus is geopolitics, which means they cover political, economic and military developments all around the world. They have an annual forecast of their own, and George has been gracious enough to allow me to share it with you. As long-time OTB readers may know, STRATFOR's annual forecast can be very provocative.

    Here are some examples of this year's themes:

    - The U.S. is unlikely to withdraw from Iraq as promised in 2011.
    - The U.S. economy will grow.
    - In Europe, more countries will need bailouts. (A couple of names might surprise you.)
    - Russian-German relations will strengthen.
    - Japan will rot, but it will rot in seclusion.

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  • Hoisington Fourth-Quarter Report

    Long-time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the names Dr. Lacy Hunt and Van Hoisington. They are a regular feature here, as quite frankly, anything that Lacy writes or says I pay serious attention to. This is their regular quarterly report, where they outline seven things that are likely to retard US growth. An easy read, but take the time to think this through.

    Hoisington Investment Management Company (www.hoisingtonmgt.com) is a registered investment advisor specializing in fixed-income portfolios for large institutional clients. Located in Austin, Texas, the firm has over $4 billion under management, composed of corporate and public funds, foundations, endowments, Taft-Hartley funds, and insurance companies.

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  • Global Aging and the Crisis of the 2020s

    From the fall of the Roman and the Mayan empires to the Black Death to the colonization of the New World and the youth-driven revolutions of the twentieth century, demographic trends have played a decisive role in many of the great invasions, political upheavals, migrations, and environmental catastrophes of history. By the 2020s, an ominous new conjuncture of demographic trends may once again threaten widespread disruption. I am, of course, talking about global aging, which is likely to have a profound effect on economic growth, living standards, and the shape of the world order.

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  • The Next Decade: Where We've Been... And Where We're Going

    This week I'm sending you a real treat. My friend & geopolitical expert George Friedman has written a fascinating new book, The Next Decade: Where We've Been... And Where We're Going. His previous book, The Next 100 Years, hit the New York Times bestseller list, so it's not just his fishing buddies like me that think he's good.

    I've had the pleasure of reading a galley copy, and after a grueling arm-wrestling match, won the exclusive privilege of sending you the Author's Note and Introduction a few weeks before the book's release. The Author's Note will give you a sense of George & why he set out to write this book. The Introduction sets up this concept of the U.S. as an unintended empire (a striking phrase, but he backs it up well). You can view them both below.

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  • In Defense of the “Old Always”

    Long time readers of Outside the Box are familiar with the name of James Montier, who is now with GMO in their London office. Today, James, with his usual acerbic wit, takes on the notion of the “New Normal” and offers us a defense of the “Old Always.” James is a value investor and sees mean reversion as still alive and kicking, where some proponents of the New Normal think we should throw out all of the old aphorisms. While I am in the New Normal camp, I also agree with James. This makes for some quick and thought–provoking reading.

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