I’ve just returned from a few days in
Sydney, Australia, where it is more or less the dead of winter, which
means sunshine, highs in the upper 60s, and lows in the 50s. Not a
snowplow in sight. Leaving aside the World Cup and Aussie Rules football
and the odd murder and sex scandal, the main news story is the
precipitous loss of confidence in Kevin Rudd, the Labor Party leader who
became Prime Minister in 2007, soundly defeating John Howard and his
center-right Liberal Party, who had been in power for the previous
eleven years. Rudd, a former civil servant in the Foreign Office known
mainly for his fluency in Mandarin Chinese and his geekish, technocratic
look, was meant to be the antidote to Howard’s proud pro-Americanism
and belligerent attitude towards darker-skinned folks seeking political
asylum in the Land of Oz. Rudd was the new internationalist, prepared to
identify Australia as an Asian country and to place Australia in the
vanguard on such cutting global issues as climate change. Barely three
years later, and with the next election no more than 10 months away,
Rudd appears to be hanging on by his fingernails, facing his lowest poll
ratings ever as well as grumblings within his own party that he might
have to be replaced by another politician – Deputy Prime Minister Julia
Gillard, for example – if Labor is to have any chance of staying in
power. What went wrong?
Quite a few things. The Rudd Government,
without consulting other countries, made a commitment in advance of
last December’s Copenhagen climate conference to bind Australia to a 15%
to 20% reduction in carbon emissions by 2020, and to introduce a
stringent cap and trade emissions control scheme. What had at first
looked like bold leadership came to look amateurish and poorly
considered as soon as it became apparent that none of the other big
players at the conference had any intention to follow Australia’s
example. Rudd, speaking to a group of politicians and journalists after a
particularly intense negotiating session with the Chinese, was recorded
saying, “Those Chinese f***ers are trying to rat-f*** us.” In the
normal rough and tumble of Australia’s political discourse this is
fairly anodyne – Rudd’s effort to inject some passion and machismo into
his bland and technocratic persona and the rough equivalent of Barack
Obama’s statement that he is “looking for someone’s ass to kick” in
connection with the BP oil spill – but the Chinese and most other
countries no doubt interpret it differently. The Australians took it as a
sign that Rudd had become rudderless and unhinged. In April of this
year, the Rudd government announced deferral of its climate change
program – including an emissions-trading scheme – from 2011 to at least
2013, causing the Green Party and many in his own party to brand him a
traitor. Labor’s approval ratings dropped from 52% to 35% in the month
that followed.
The Prime Minister’s biggest misstep,
however, is his attack on the mining industry, one of the mainstays of
the Australian economy, which is credited with helping Australia avoid
the worst effects of the global financial crisis and recession.
In what may have been an attempt to
shore up his left flank, Mr. Rudd in early May introduced what he called
a “super-profits” tax on mining companies, which would impose a 40% tax
on all income in excess of a “normal” rate of return of six percent,
the rate paid on long-term Australian Government bonds. The government
justified the move partly on the basis of a study carried out by the
Treasury, which claimed that mining companies paid an effective income
tax rate of only 17%, far less than the “headline” corporate income tax
rate of 30%. This claim may have been true in a very narrow sense, but
what the report failed to mention was that the 17% figure represented
only the federal corporate income tax paid by mining companies, ignoring
the substantial mineral royalties, surface rents, and other charges
paid by mining companies to the federal and state governments, which
jack up the average effective tax to 40% of earnings. The new tax would
increase that average effective rate to 60%.
Now some people, Mr. Rudd and his
Treasurer (Finance Minister) Wayne Swan among them, seem to think that
60% is not only not excessive, but may not be enough. They are in a
minority. Though there is some support from the measure from the unions,
the Green Party, and others on the Left, popular sentiment runs against
it, and some 2,000 mining workers recently turned out in protest,
chanting the slogan, “Super Tax, Super Stupid.”
Australian mining giant Rio Tinto has
announced it is reviewing all investment decisions in light of the
proposed tax, including a big uranium project in Western Australia.
Xstrata, a huge Anglo-Swiss mining company, has placed two major
investments, worth A$6.6 billion, on hold, putting more than 3,000 new
jobs at risk. As much as $20 billion in other investments may be at
risk, including a $2.5 billion Chinese aluminum project. Rio Tinto Chief
Executive Tom Albanese last week told reporters that Australia is now
his “number one sovereign risk issue globally,” strong words in view of
Rio Tinto’s operations in more than 50 other countries, including
Guinea, Cameroon, Madagascar, and Zimbabwe, none of which has anything
close to Australia’s AAA sovereign risk rating from Standard &
Poor’s.
In spite of a rumored compromise with
the mining industry, which might raise the “normal” rate of return to
11%, the Labor Government insists it will not budge. “We are not going
to be diverted from our core objective, to get a good deal for the
Australian people for the extraction of resources that can only be
extracted and used once,” said Lindsay Tanner, Australia’s Finance
Minister (a post junior to that of Treasurer). Given that the Green
Party strenuously opposes any such compromise and could scupper Labor’s
chance of winning the next election, Rudd has painted himself into a
corner from which he will emerge with difficulty, if at all.
It all seems to be equal parts
ineptitude and misbegotten ideology. Mr. Tanner’s remarks, and other,
similar statements from other members of the Rudd Cabinet, betray an
instinctive mistrust, not to say hostility, towards business. In
government’s view, mining companies may have to be tolerated, but
toleration is as far as it goes. The mining companies (and, by
extension, many other businesses) can produce some goods and services
governments cannot, so they must be allowed to operate – though on a
very short leash. Rudd, a career bureaucrat, sees the mining companies
as despoilers, raping the environment, mistreating their workers,
evading taxes, and stealing riches that rightfully belong to the nation.
Never mind that mining companies everywhere are required to pay hefty
amounts into rehabilitation funds to cover the cost of repairing any
environmental damage once the mine reaches the end of its useful life.
Never mind that miners everywhere are the highly-paid aristocrats of
manual workers and that mine accidents are called accidents because they
are, well, accidental, occurring in spite of most mining companies’
strenuous efforts to assure worker safety. Never mind that gold or iron
or copper or any other mineral under the ground is worth nothing at all
until someone digs ups and processes the ore, a hugely expensive and
risky undertaking for which investors require a higher return than the
yield on a risk-free Treasury bond. And never mind that in Australia
miners pay royalties ranging from 2.7% to 18% of the value of the
minerals they extract, which are among the highest rates in the world
and pretty generous compensation to the Australian people for use of its
resources. To the extent that you believe business is, at best, a
necessary evil, you subscribe to the Rudd-Labor worldview, which holds
that it’s fine to seek government revenue and political mileage from
bashing business, which deserves far worse than it gets..
It’s to the credit of the Australian
people that they see through this warped view and are prepared to vote
against it at the polls. Unfortunately, this view seems to be gaining
traction around the world. The Economist of June 10 says that President
Obama has “all too often given the impression that capitalism is
something unpleasant he found on the sole of his sneaker.” Governments
around the world, ranging from the loony (Venezuela, Iran) to the merely
confused (Bolivia, Brazil, China, Mongolia, and scores of others) echo
these views, reserving huge swathes of their economies for the state,
providing barely-disguised preferences and subsidies for state-owned
enterprises, and subjecting private businesses to punitive taxes or
worse.
General Motors CEO Charles Wilson’s
statement in 1953 that “what is good for the country is good for General
Motors and vice versa” may be a touch hubristic, but it would not be
inappropriate for governments explicitly to recognize that business, not
government, creates the jobs, income, and prosperity on which all else
depends.
Some degree of tension between business
and government is a good thing. I am suspicious when the interests of
government and business appear perfectly aligned: it usually means that
the business in question has bought the policy and regulatory decisions
that best suit it. When a country announces that it is “open for
business” it usually means that its politicians and policies are for
sale to the highest bidder. Nevertheless, when a government acts with
such overt hostility to business as the Australian government has done,
it is usually attributable to a toxic combination of ideology,
ignorance, and self-interest.
It is hard to know to what extent
Labor’s anti-business stance is a cynical and populist political gambit
that has backfired badly, or a reflection of deeply held beliefs. In
either case it is a sure sign – and one that voters will be quick to act
on – that 11 years in the political wilderness were not enough to
transform Labor into a party capable of governing responsibly. In
Britain it took Labour 18 years in opposition to turn itself into a
credible governing party and it took the Conservatives 13 years in
opposition to New Labour to do the same. Not ready for prime time,
Australia’s Labor Party needs to go back to the woodshed for more
practice. I don’t even want to think what this implies for the
Republicans in the United States.
Posted
06-18-2010 12:29 PM
by
Charles Krakoff
Filed under: China, Brazil, Kevin Rudd, sovereign risk, Xstrata, Bolivia, Labor Party, Australia, Wayne Swan, mining tax, Rio Tinto, Venezuela, Iran