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  • European Debt Crisis Revisited - Implications For the US

    Today we take a fresh look at the European debt crisis which is worsening. Just over a month ago, EU leaders agreed on a second bailout loan for Greece to keep it from defaulting. That bailout loan had to be approved by all EU member nations, and several have refused to do so unless Greece can put up collateral. This has caused the bailout agreement to unravel and Germany's Chancellor Andrea Merkel is frantically trying to put it back together. If she fails, we could get another serious shock to the equity markets in the US.

    Meanwhile, the European Central Bank began buying huge chunks of government bonds from Italy and Spain to keep their credit markets functioning. Some argue that the ECB is not authorized to make such purchases but it is doing so anyway. It remains to be seen just how long the ECB can continue this large-scale quantitative easing. In any event, the European debt crisis is worsening, and I continue to believe that it will have more negative consequences for our markets here.

    A new CNN poll found that Americans' confidence in Congress is at a new low. For the first time ever, a majority of Americans want the bums in Washington voted out of office -- including their own Representatives in Congress. In past polls a majority wanted some members of Congress kicked out, but not their own Representatives. You'll find this story very interesting. Finally, I leave you today with a very good article written by Tony Blankley who offers President Obama some advice for his major speech on Thursday night.

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  • Why the Economic Recovery Isn’t Stronger

    We are told that the recession ended in the 1Q of 2009, but for most of us it sure doesn't feel like it ended at all. The official unemployment rate is still near 9% (near 16% if you count everyone), and the economy is struggling just to eek-out 3% GDP growth. In the past, the economy soared by 5-6% GDP or even better following severe recessions. So why isn't this economic recovery stronger?

    As I will discuss today, consumer confidence took a surprise dive in March. The latest figures on the housing market were simply dreadful across the board. Bank lending remains in the tank. And private investment in the US, especially by foreigners, has fallen off a cliff as a result of the recession and the falling US dollar. These are all reasons why the recovery is so sluggish, and they are not likely to change soon.

    The US equity markets have been on tear to the upside, despite the disappointing news on the economy. It seems that virtually everyone is convinced that stocks can only go higher, but that's usually a sign to look out below. Whatever happens, this is a very uncertain time in the markets!

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