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  • Treasury Bonds - The Next "Lost Decade?"

    Much has been written about the 'lost decade' in stocks, a 10-year period (2000-2009) in which the major stock indexes produced a negative return. This dismal performance may be one of the reasons that retail investors are flocking into bond mutual funds, according to data from the Investment Company Institute.

    However, there are some analysts who are predicting that the next 'lost decade' may be in bonds, and especially long-term Treasury bonds which are usually more susceptible to interest rate movements. With interest rates at all-time lows, it would seem that yields have nowhere to go but up - pushing bond prices down. The bottom line is that retail mutual fund investors may be setting themselves up for another extended period of low, or even negative annualized performance.

    This week, I'm going to discuss some of the reasons why bond investors may be setting themselves up for disappointing results. I'll also revisit a bond investment that has the ability to trade long-term Treasury bond mutual funds on both a long or short basis, providing the potential for gain no matter what long-term Treasury yields do in the future. You'll definitely want to read about his program, and even attend our upcoming webinar this Thursday featuring this innovative Treasury bond investment program.

  • My Genes Made Me Do It!

    For many years, I have written about the Dalbar Organization's Qualitative Analysis of Investor Behavior (QAIB) study. Now in its 15th year, this study has consistently documented how investors' returns do not match those of the major market indexes because investors constantly jump from one hot investment to another. While Dalbar showed us how investors returns suffered, we were left wondering why investors acted as they did.

    The answer to the 'why' question may now be found in a recent study showing the part genetics play in a person's investment behavior. The 'Nature or Nurture' study found that up to 45% of a person's investment behavior may be attributable to genetics. Some genetic influences are good while others are not. The Nature or Nurture study also found that genetic investment behavior can persist even after considerable investment education. In other words, nature trumps nurture.

    I recognized long ago how some investors can be their own worst enemies, and now I know that their genetics are likely at fault. Fortunately, I developed a way to overcome some of the detrimental genetic behaviors long ago. If you've ever made a bad investment decision and kicked yourself later on for doing so, you need to read this week's E-Letter.