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Most of the forecasters I subscribe to expect economic growth to average only 1-2% in the first half of 2013. Most believe that 4Q GDP fell sharply from the 3.1% rate in the 3Q of last year, largely due to fears about the fiscal cliff. They also expect growth to improve modestly in the second half of this year to 2% or slightly higher. That’s not too optimistic.

One reason is that the end of the payroll tax holiday on December 31 means that workers’ pay went down by 2% on January 1, thus adding more headwinds to the economy this year. A person earning $50,000 a year before taxes, for example, will pay an additional $1,000 or more to the government this year.

Add to that the fact that we are sure to have another nasty debt ceiling battle next month, which will once again be unsettling to consumers who drive the economy. We all remember the fiasco in the summer of 2011 when the Dow plunged over 2,000 points. For these reasons and others, at least the first half of 2013 could be very dicey.

Actually there are three debt battles – the so called “trifecta” – that lie ahead. In addition to the debt ceiling battle, there is also the sequester/automatic spending cuts on March 1 and the “continuing resolution” to fund the government in the absence of a formal budget passed by Congress. That happens in late March. We will look at all three of these upcoming battles below.

Today we’ll also touch on the pork-laden fiscal cliff bill that passed on New Year’s Day. And we will ponder the question of whether the US has a “spending problem” or a “taxing problem.” Let’s start with this last one first.

We begin today with some obligatory comments about the election and how we got it wrong. Obviously, I am very discouraged with the outcome of the election. The main mistake Spencer and I made (and others including Gallup, Rasmussen, Pew, Rove, Morris, etc., etc.) in our pre-election analysis was to significantly underestimate the turnout rates among Democrats. The widely-held view that Democrats were unenthused and wouldn’t turn out to vote, as suggested by numerous pollsters, was simply wrong.

We also we mistakenly believed that the 2008 surge in black, Latino, and young voter turnout would recede in 2012 to “normal” levels, as did most of the major pollsters noted in the previous paragraph. That didn't happen. These high levels of minority and young voter participation are apparently here to stay. Unfortunately, Obama won both the popular vote and the Electoral College comfortably. Following those opening comments, we turn our attention to the so-called "fiscal cliff" that is upon us.

I'm sure you have heard about the fiscal cliff, but today I will present you with the details, including how much it will affect the economy and how much it will cost you (based on your income level). I will also explain why I think the odds are greater that we will fall off the fiscal cliff this time. Given his election victory, I don't see President Obama willing to compromise much if at all.

If we do fall off the cliff, a new recession is very likely to happen next year, and that will almost certainly be bearish for stocks. Thus, the stakes are very high in this soon to be knock-down, drag-out!

We begin today by looking at a new demographic study from the Pew Research Center which contains some stark findings about the American middle class. The study concludes that the last 10 years have been the “worst decade in modern history” for the middle class. A lot of the findings will surprise you.

From there we look at some new projections from the Congressional Budget Office which warn what will happen if we fall off the “fiscal cliff.” The CBO predicts that the US will fall back into recession early next year if the automatic tax increases and mandatory spending cuts occur at the end of this year.

Next, the minutes from the Fed’s July 31/August 1 policy meeting (just released last week) revealed that the FOMC is indeed considering QE3, and an announcement may be forthcoming at the next meeting on September 12-13.

Finally, I will share my thoughts with you on the new documentary movie, “2016: Obama’s America.” I saw Dinesh D’Souza’s film over the weekend and am very glad I did – I learned some things I did not know. More comments appear at the end of today’s letter.

The holidays sneaked up on me faster than usual this year, what with a couple of extra business projects that required a lot more time than I expected over the last few months. Given a number of year-end deadlines, I have elected to reprint an excellent article today by Peter Ferrara that is perhaps the best critique of President Obama that I have ever read. If you are an Obama fan, you probably don’t want to read this; on the other hand, maybe you should.

Ferrara succinctly examines Obama’s upbringing, his early professional life, his liberal ideology, his ascendency into politics, his becoming President of the United States and his policies since occupying the White House. This is a very interesting and insightful read, especially in light of the challenging economic and financial times we find ourselves in.

Once again this week, there is a lot of news to cover. We begin with my thoughts on President Obama’s latest “jobs” speech in which he asked for yet another almost $450 billion in stimulus which he said is “paid for.” That all depends on Congress passing a litany of new tax increases that Obama announced yesterday. This guy just never learns! Obama’s latest jobs plan is just a part of a carefully crafted political re-election strategy that he can use regardless of whether or not Congress passes his American Jobs Act.

Following that discussion, we will look at the latest economic reports, including the dreadful August unemployment report. Next, we will move on to the latest news from the Fed and what the FOMC may be up to at its upcoming monetary policy meeting on September 20-21.

Most importantly, I will also announce today that I have started a BLOG. At the end of this E-Letter, I will give you more details. Many people have encouraged me to start a blog, but until now I have resisted. I have recently changed my mind, and you can access my new blog at www.garydhalbert.com. I will be covering a lot of different topics and I trust you will like what you see. If so, I hope you will subscribe and join in the discussions and let me know.

Introduction

Monday holidays always cut into our writing time, so this week we have elected to reprint one of the more interesting articles I have read recently.  I think you will like it unless you are a big Obama fan, in which case, you’ll probably find it disappointing.  In any event, I think this piece is spot-on as we close in on the mid-term elections.

Following that article, I will update you on the performance of Hg Capital’s Long/Short Government Bond Program which has continued its winning ways in 2010 following its record year in 2009.