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  • The Economy: Worst Five Years Since the Depression

    Tonight, President Obama will give the first State of the Union address of his second term as President of the United States. You can bet that the speech will be full of glowing rhetoric and success stories from his first four years in office.

    What you will definitely NOT hear from him tonight is the fact that the US economy just recorded the worst five years since the Great Depression. That is what you will read below. While the many facts and figures below are disappointing, even depressing, Americans need to know the truth about the real state of our economy and our union.

    Consider what follows as a rebuttal to President Obama’s speech tonight. Feel free to forward this to as many people as you wish.

    Also, today we will revisit the "sequestration" (mandatory budget cuts) on March 1 and the latest on the bond bubble, which may be bursting as you read this. Treasury bond yields have jumped over 30% since the low back in July. I'll recommend what to do now.

  • When Will The Bull Market Return?

    I'm going to be out of the office most of this week spending time with my son who is home from college on Spring Break. Since we live on Lake Travis near Austin, I'm sure he'll have me driving the boat while he and his buddies ski and wakeboard. That being the case, I'm going to reprint an excellent article by David Henry entitled "When Will the Bull Return?" David brings some good insights in to how stock market cycles work, and just how long it might be before the current bear market comes to an end.

    Unfortunately, Mr. Henry's note of caution is not being heeded by Wall Street. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) climbed just over 9% last week, prompting many bull market cheerleaders to proclaim that the stock market has hit the bottom and its now on the way back up. While this may be true, it is also a fact that there have been many "market bottom" calls over the course of this bear market and, so far, they have all been wrong. After the article reprint, I'll briefly discuss why I think Wall Street so desperately needs a new bull market.

    Then, I'm going to share with you a way to begin introducing active management strategies into your own portfolio. By making "half a decision," you can test the waters of active management without totally abandoning other strategies that you may now employ. Buy-and-hold strategies are fatally flawed, so maybe its time you tried something else....
  • The Recession & More Government Bailouts

    Well, the 'R' Word (recession) can now be officially used to describe the US economy since the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that we have been in a recession since December of 2007. Considering the back-dated nature of NBER's announcement, we find ourselves in the midst of the third longest recession since the Great Depression, with no end yet in sight. No wonder the Treasury and Fed are pulling out all of the stops to bail out the economy. This week, I'm going to discuss the current bleak economic picture, the Fed's latest bailout and the possible long-term consequences of the Fed's printing money....
  • Might Uncle Sam Make Money On The Bailout?

    The entire country is in a tizzy over the massive government bailout plan. The credit markets have seized up even further, risking a real credit crisis or worse. Banks are dropping like flies. Yet the $700+ billion bailout was voted down yesterday in the House of Representatives. But it is far from dead. This week, I will summarize the latest bailout plan, both the good and the bad and the risks. Actually, there are some smart people who believe the government will make money on the bailout plan, maybe a lot of money. I'll explain that as well, although I don't necessarily agree. Hopefully, this week's discussion will be helpful. Let's jump in....
  • Where Are We Now - Recession, Etc., Etc.??

    Many market analysts and economists believe the US is either already in a recession, or will be shortly. This week, we take a look at the latest economic reports and ponder what the recession will look like, how long it might last, etc. We also examine the latest massive bailout of Bear Stearns and the substantial role the Fed played in this mega-takeover....
  • Stratfor: The US Economy & The Next "Big One"

    The conventional wisdom on Wall Street seems to be that we have now entered into a recession. While I'm not yet ready to get on that bandwagon, I do see it as a definite possibility in light of ongoing weak economic reports. If we do experience a recession, the next question is whether this is going to be the "big one," somewhat akin to the 1930s Depression....