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  • America's National Debt Tops $13 Trillion

    With relatively little fanfare in the media, the US national debt cruised above $13 trillion last month. The federal budget deficit for fiscal 2010 is projected to reach a record $1.5 trillion by September 30, and will be above $1 trillion in fiscal 2011 as well. President Obama's own budget projections show that our national debt will swell by almost $10 trillion more over the next 10 years.

    This out-of-control spending has caused both the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) to formally call for the Obama administration to curb its budget deficits. In response, President Obama has created a 'Debt Commission' to study ways to reduce the deficits. Don't be surprised if this commission concludes that the only way to fix the problem is a 'Value-Added Tax' (VAT).

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  • The Economy & What To Expect In 2010

    This week, we start by looking at the latest economic data, and how hard it is to get a new job if you become unemployed. We also examine President Obama's new 'jobs program' that would spend what's left of last year's TARP money that was supposed to be repaid to taxpayers. Next, we look at the Democrats' move to raise the national debt ceiling, and what they really have in mind for the debt limit in January.

    Following that, we will look at the disappointing holiday spending levels - as if anyone is surprised. On the plus side, there was at least a little encouraging news on the housing front over the last couple of weeks. Finally, we take a look at some of the forecasts for 2010 - hint, they are all over the board.

    As always, thank you for taking the time to read this weekly E-Letter, and I especially appreciate your comments and suggestions. Happy New Year everyone!!

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  • Is America On The Road To Financial Ruin?

    Last Wednesday, President Obama announced the most sweeping financial industry reforms since the Securities and Exchange Commission was created in 1934. Obama unveiled new proposals that would refashion the federal rules governing almost every corner of finance, and will push the government and the Federal Reserve much more deeply into banks and the private markets. I will discuss these massive changes and tell you why I do not believe they will be good for the markets or investors, for the most part. We will also look at some new polls which indicate that more Americans are worried about President Obama's trillion dollar deficits than they are about the recession. Lastly, we will look at the latest economic numbers and what they mean. Let's jump right in....
  • Have We Turned The Corner On The Recession?

    While the global recession and credit crisis are still in full swing, at least we have finally seen a few positive economic reports of late. Specifically, we have seen some good news in the housing sector where new and existing home sales actually increased nicely in February, following months and months of decline. We also saw an unexpected jump in durable goods orders for last month. These reports, along with the nice jump in the stock markets, have led several noted forecasters to suggest that we've seen the bottom in the recession and the worst of the credit crisis. I am not so convinced.

    We will also take a close look at Treasury Secretary Geithner's latest bank bailout plan that would partner government and private investors in a scheme to take toxic assets off of the banks' books, but there is no guarantee that this new plan will work. We'll also examine the Fed's latest plans to buy Treasury debt and more toxic assets from banks. Next, we'll examine the latest report from the Congressional Budget Office regarding President Obama's record large budget for 2010, which the CBO says will result in a massive $2.3 trillion deficit. Can I say, I told you so?

    It's a lot to cover in one letter, but I trust you will find it interesting....
  • Why The Stock Markets Are Collapsing

    The US economy is in the worst recession since the Great Depression, and the latest economic reports have been even worse than expected. The US stock markets continue to collapse, with the Dow and the S&P 500 down well over 50% since the peak in October 2007. It is estimated that $10 trillion in wealth has disappeared in the US alone as a result of the stock market bust. Investors around the world are asking WHY? In my opinion, a big reason why the markets are collapsing is the trillions of dollars in new federal spending that President Obama has enacted. Plus, his record $3.55 trillion federal budget for 2010 will likely result in a deficit of over $2 trillion for fiscal 2010. I believe that this enormous spending, plus his other liberal plans that he intends to put in place this year, are serving to drive stock prices much lower than what should be happening. This is a lot to cover in one letter, so let's get started....
  • The Recession & More Government Bailouts

    Well, the 'R' Word (recession) can now be officially used to describe the US economy since the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) declared that we have been in a recession since December of 2007. Considering the back-dated nature of NBER's announcement, we find ourselves in the midst of the third longest recession since the Great Depression, with no end yet in sight. No wonder the Treasury and Fed are pulling out all of the stops to bail out the economy. This week, I'm going to discuss the current bleak economic picture, the Fed's latest bailout and the possible long-term consequences of the Fed's printing money....
  • Storms On The Horizon - The Entitlement Time Bomb

    The federal budget deficit is projected to soar to a record $482 billion in 2009. With that in mind, I reprint a recent speech by Dallas Federal Reserve Bank president Richard W. Fisher on the subject of the US debt crisis. Let me warn you, this is not for the faint of heart. It is one of the most chilling forecasts I have read in a long time. You need to read it. The question is, why is no one talking about this problem or taking any steps to head it off? I offer some comments at the end....