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  • Has The US Dollar Topped Out, Or Headed Much Higher?

    The US dollar’s value has been on a tear since last summer, with the greenback’s value surging more than 20% against a basket of major foreign currencies. Reasons for the dollar’s sudden strong advance vary widely, but include the following among others:

    The US economy is faring better than most other developed economies, and foreign investors have to buy dollars in order to participate.
    The Fed is expected to raise short-term interest rates this year, and higher rates historically lead to a stronger currency.
    US stocks and bonds have been the leaders in market returns in recent years, and foreign investors continue to flock to them, creating more demand for dollars.
    Global tensions and concerns are rising in many parts of the world, and foreign investors are seeking a safe-haven in which to park their money.
    Basically, the US is the least worst of a bad lot when it comes to where international investors want to stash their money.
    For these reasons and others, international capital has been flowing into the US at a near-record rate since last summer. This has definitely boosted the value of the US dollar since last July and may continue to do so. But questions remain.

    The first question is whether the strong rise in the US dollar will continue? There are some compelling arguments that it will, as I will discuss below. Yet in March of this year, the US dollar turned lower. So the next question is, whether the recent downturn in the US dollar is a real change of trend? I’ll offer an opinion as we go along.

    Following that discussion, we will delve into the latest data on who pays income taxes and who doesn’t. The numbers may surprise you. Despite the fact that the top 20% of income earners pay almost 84% of all income taxes, the Democrats want to raise income taxes on high income earners and corporations. What else is new?

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  • Swiss Franc’s Surge = Chaos In Global Currency Markets

    Last Thursday, the Swiss National Bank stunned the financial world by decoupling the Swiss franc from the euro. This surprise move sent the franc up almost 40% against the euro in one day, although it didn’t close that high (up 19%). Nevertheless, many currency traders, banks and brokerages were left with devastating losses. I’ll give you the details below.

    But first, let’s take a look at the recent US economic data which has been disappointing overall. Following the stronger than expected GDP growth of 5% (annual rate) in the 3Q, the US economy seemed to stumble a bit in the 4Q. We’ll cover the latest reports before shifting our attention to Europe and Switzerland in particular.

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  • Are “Currency Controls” Coming To America On July 1?

    Some very controversial regulations passed way back in 2010 and finalized in 2012 are scheduled to go into effect on July 1 of this year, and most Americans know little or nothing about this new law. Yet the effect of these new regulations could send shockwaves through the financial system worldwide. Basically, the regulations that take effect July 1 will make it very difficult and costly for Americans to hold money or investments outside the US.

    Starting in July, foreign banks and financial institutions will be required to report to the IRS any accounts they hold which are owned by Americans – including the owner’s name, address, Tax ID number (or Social Security number) and account balances of all offshore accounts if the combined amount is over $50,000. Many foreign institutions are up in arms about this, and some are kicking their US clients out to avoid reporting this information to the IRS. Most US investors who have money in offshore banks, funds, etc. will very likely close such accounts and bring their money home when they learn about this.

    The Democrats who passed this law (back in 2010 when they controlled Congress) say these new regulations were designed simply to identify “tax cheats” who do not pay the IRS taxes on their gains earned outside the US. But the unintended consequence may be a major disruption in the global financial system that could cause the US dollar to plunge. Some even believe it could threaten the US dollar’s status as the world’s “Reserve Currency.”

    Some analysts are calling the new law “currency controls,” which have never happened before in the US. As a result, ALL US investors need to know about this ASAP, not just those who have money or investments in offshore accounts, due to the potential for global repercussions. It’s complicated, and no one knows exactly what the outcome will be, but I will do my best to explain it today.

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