The US economy has held up better than most analysts expected for the first part of this year. But it does look like economic growth will go negative for at least the next 2-3 quarters, meaning a mild recession is likely in the months ahead. Meanwhile, inflation is definitely on the rise, what with energy and food prices exploding. The obvious question is, what will the Fed do? This week, we investigate the economic outlook in detail for the next year or so, the trends in inflation and how the Fed may react. More importantly, the investment outlook for the next several years is one of modest returns at best, and the risks to the downside continue to increase. At the end, I have some ideas for how to invest successfully in this high risk environment....