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  • Fed’s Getting Anxious About Interest Rate "Liftoff"

    While I have been a Fed watcher for over 30 years, rarely have I seen as much media angst over the central bank’s next move as we are seeing today. We all know that the Fed is going to raise short-term interest rates at some point. We expect the Fed to “normalize” interest rates slowly in measured steps over the next few years. The main question is, when does this process begin?

    The other question is, what effect will the eventual interest rate increases have on the stock and bond markets and the economy? While the Fed has made it clear that it intends to end its “quantitative easing” (QE) policy by late October, and that it will start to raise rates sometime next year, stocks and bonds have been on an upward tear all year. Stocks are at record highs, and bond prices have risen when most forecasters expected them to go down.

    When Janet Yellen took over as Fed Chair earlier this year, she suggested that the Fed would not begin to raise short-term rates until at least six months after QE ends. Most analysts assumed that meant no interest rate hike until at least April or May of next year, or even later. However, the minutes from the July 29-30 Fed policy meeting released last week suggested that several FOMC members think a rate hike should occur sooner.

    This revelation (dare we call it that) set off quite the buzz among financial writers over the last week. The concern is that if the Fed raises interest rates too early, that could choke off the feeble economic recovery. Yet while some financial analysts sounded alarm bells over the possibility that the Fed’s interest rate hike might happen sooner than expected, the markets seemingly could care less. That’s part of what we’ll talk about today.

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