October 2011 - Forecasts & Trends

A recent article in the Wall Street Journal documented how more and more investors are choosing to opt out of the stock market, vowing never to return. With the market's direction lately being more of a function of what's going on in Greece than on Wall Street, it's understandable that investors are getting tired of up and down swings of over 200 points in the Dow.

The most troubling aspect of the article, however, is that many of the Baby Boomers who are bailing out of the stock market have not saved enough for retirement. With yields at all-time lows in most fixed-rate investments, it's going to be hard to obtain much growth outside of the equity market. The result could be a retirement crisis in the making.

It's a tough choice - stay in the market for growth and risk fierce bear markets, or remain on the sidelines and pare back your plans for retirement. Fortunately, there's an answer to this dilemma in the form of the Metropolitan Capital Strategies managed accounts. Metropolitan stays in the safety of a money market account until it's proprietary system signals a 90% confidence level of a near-term gain. Best of all, it places the decision of when to enter and exit the market in the hands of experienced professionals. This week, I'll explain why Metropolitan is definitely a money manager you should look into.

We begin today with the latest results from the Business Roundtable survey which goes out to 140 top CEOs around the country each quarter. The 3Q survey found that more than double the number of CEOs plan on layoffs just ahead than in the 2Q. The CEO Economic Outlook Index fell for the second quarter in a row to the lowest level since late 2009.

Following that discussion, we look at the latest economic reports. While there were a few encouraging spots, most of the reports indicate that the economy is slowing down. Consumer confidence remains in the tank. Last Friday, the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) declared that a new recession has begun. That news sent stocks sharply lower yesterday - what else is new?

Next, we move on to President Obama's $450 billion jobs bill. Few people know it, but this bill would allow unemployed people applying for jobs to sue those employers if they are turned away because they've been unemployed for a while. I'm not for job discrimination of any kind, but this is ridiculous. Fortunately, the jobs bill is "dead-on-arrival" in the Congress.

In closing, I will update you on the wildfire epidemic here in Texas. Thanks to all who have called or e-mailed to check on us!