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Have You Seen This?

  • Leaders also look bearish

    In This Issue:
    Bearish head & shoulder patterns abound...
    Leaders also look bearish
    Are earnings finally showing signs of life?
    Manufacturing and service sectors improve, trade gap narrows
    Pollyannas caught on tape

    Quote of the week
    "Everyone is trying to jump on that bandwagon. There are projects in emerging markets in which I can make more money than I can in the West at the moment." - Nicholas Field of Schroders Plc, London, manager of approximately $11 billion in emerging-market stocks (see article below - Emerging Market Take Record Share of World Equity).

    Head & shoulders patterns abound...
    The benefit of using technical analysis to make investing and trading decisions is that it removes emotion and the necessity to interpret reams of fundamental and economic data from the decision-making process. The downside of using a technical only approach is that it often provides only short-term insight. As a result, investor and traders with longer-term horizons should use both but as readers of this newsletter witness first-hand each week, the workload and time required to do this type of analysis can be greatly streamlined by relying on charts. Fundamental and technical charts quickly provide an overall snapshot of trends in both stock prices and in fundamentals like earnings and key economic indicators which is far more useful information than single data points....
  • Rally off and running again...

    In This Issue:

    Rally off and running again...
    Leaders on hold
    Earnings still in the tank
    Home prices still falling but sales off the lows
    Next weekly newsletter June 14...

    Quote of the week
    "There's consternation in the stock market. If we see a pick-up in long-term yields, an economic recovery will be much more difficult. That concern could be enough to halt the recent stock rally."
    - Russ Koesterich Barclays Global Investors, San Francisco

    Rally off and running again...
    Stocks rallied strongly on Tuesday following the Memorial Day holiday based on a strong showing in the Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator which is interesting - we have found this metric to be of little trading value. However, investors chose to ignore the most recent Case-Shiller home price index that showed home prices continue falling at an accelerating rate....
  • Consolidation continues

    In This Issue:

    Rally on hold...
    Leaders move up
    Earnings still weakening
    Builders get more optimistic but no support from data
    Elliott Wave SPX Perspective

    Quote of the week
    "I used to take $300 for the week -- that was walking- around money. Now I take $100 for the week. Forget about ordering sushi for lunch." Former Bear Stearns trader Guy Irace.

    Rally on hold...
    Now ten-weeks old, the rally spent a second consecutive week consolidating, with the standout exception of the emerging market ETF which moved more than 5% higher. Up more than 30% from its March 6 low, the S&P500 index is still 4% above its 50-day moving average....
  • Rally takes a breather?

    In This Issue

    Rally takes a breather?
    Leaders bounce back again...
    Earnings forecasts show signs of hope
    Existing and new home sales fall
    Waiting for Case-Shiller
    Treasury demand surges as spending soars

    Quote of the week
    'Tax receipts are just collapsing. [The need to sell more debt] is a big issue in the Treasury market and it is ongoing. The surging budget deficit is the primary cause.' Head Stamford UBS Securities interest-rate strategist Chris Ahrens.

    Rally takes a break?
    It has now been seven weeks since this rally began and this week stocks took a break. Since hitting its low in the first week of March, the S&P500 is up nearly 28%. Last week we mentioned that the S&P500 index was 9.6% above its 50-DMA and that is about where it stayed this week (9.5%) so stocks remain overbought. But indexes are also still banging up against key resistance areas that taken together with how overbought stocks are across the board, increases the chances for a correction. And now this rally is losing momentum. If prices hold up it will show that investor demand and interest in stocks is increasing despite the technicals pointing to a drop. But that must be considered a long shot....
  • Fifth up week in a row

    In This Issue:

    Rally five weeks old...
    Leaders jump out
    Falling consumer spending in the spotlight
    Still in sell mode but...

    Quote of the week
    "When we look at the systematic financial system we're in, and it affects every country in the world including Canada, I think staying bearish is the route to go," Economist Nouriel Roubini.

    Rally finishes fifth week...
    Stocks finished their fifth consecutive week of gains. Given the weak performances Monday and Tuesday with the S&P500 dropping more than 3%, Thursday's strong close with a gain of nearly 4% was a pleasant surprise for the bulls for a number of reasons. It came on the last trading day of a holiday shortened week and a strong close on the last trading day is a bullish sign. It means that investors are confident enough to hold over the weekend and a long one at that. However, weekly volume was below average and that should be a concern....
  • Rally Continues Its March

    In This Issue:

    Rally just keeps on going...
    Leaders fall behind
    Earnings - Getting worse but not as fast...
    Home sales pick up at the expense of prices
    We're still in sell mode

    Quote of the week 'The main issue right now is that there's just a lot of [Treasury] supply out there. The Treasury is selling a lot more than the Fed is buying.' - Futures trader Arthur Bass. Demand from domestic and foreign institutions for the $34 billion five-year Treasury note auction was 30% this week, compared to 48.9% from the previous auction in February and an average of 30.1% for the last 10 auctions.

    Rally marches on...
    It was another good week for stocks driven higher by expectations that toxic bank assets would be finally removed from bank balance sheets by the taxpayer. Before Friday's 148-point drop, the Dow Industrials had gained an impressive 21% in just thirteen trading days.

    Stocks were further helped by some short-term good news in existing and new home markets which is really not good news at all. The difference is that investors are now interpreting bad news by buying more stocks and that is a good sign as it shows sentiment is becoming more bullish....
  • After two weeks up what will happen this week?

    In This Issue:

    Rally just keeps on going...
    Leaders fall behind
    Earnings - Yup, still getting worse
    Net Treasury capital outflow hits a record
    Builder's sentiment bearish despite blip in starts
    We're still in sell mode
    Elliott Wave says rally will keep going

    Quote of the week
    "Everyone is saying that we're going to go back and test the lows, but you know, the market doesn't usually reward the consensus view." - Craig Hodges, portfolio manager for Hodges Capital Management.

    Rally just keeps on going...
    It was certainly a week of news driven markets. First there was dancing on Wall Street when news was released Tuesday that housing starts jumped 22% causing the market to rally nearly 180 points. Clearly investors had no intention of looking this gift horse in the mouth. Maybe it had something to do with the luck of the Irish and all that green beer being poured in pubs in New York...

  • Does this bounce have legs?


    Reversal gains traction
    Leaders soar with the pack
    Earnings - Still getting worse
    Scant economic news, a good thing...
    But is this rally running on empty?

    Quote of the week
    "Few doubt the importance of consumer spending on the U.S. economy and its multiplier effect on the global economy, but what is underappreciated is the role of credit-card availability in that spending," - Meredith Whitney in the Wall Street Journal article this week entitled Credit cards are the next credit crunch.

    Reversal gains traction...
    After four weeks in a row of losses across the board, stocks made gains and impressive ones at that with the major indexes (except the Dow) making double-digit gains. But there are signs that this brief albeit powerful bear market rally may already be on its last legs.

  • Catching a Falling Safe


    Stocks fall, a reversal afoot?
    Leaders fall with the pack
    Earnings - Any one have a tourniquet?
    Bad economic news but good market action?
    Looking forward

    Quote of the week
    "All the major [US] banks are basically insolvent at this point. Until that changes and until credit gets flowing again, it's hard to see how we have any real recovery." - David P. Prokupek, chief executive of the Denver portfolio manager Geronimo Partners in Bloomberg article Thursday.

    Stocks sink again but is there a reversal afoot?
    Stocks sank for the fourth consecutive week of across the board losses for the major indexes but an interesting thing happened in the last hour of trading. At 3:26PM Friday New York time, the Dow Industrial declines stopped almost on a dime and the index...