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Have You Seen This?

  • Rally off and running again...

    In This Issue:

    Rally off and running again...
    Leaders on hold
    Earnings still in the tank
    Home prices still falling but sales off the lows
    Next weekly newsletter June 14...

    Quote of the week
    "There's consternation in the stock market. If we see a pick-up in long-term yields, an economic recovery will be much more difficult. That concern could be enough to halt the recent stock rally."
    - Russ Koesterich Barclays Global Investors, San Francisco

    Rally off and running again...
    Stocks rallied strongly on Tuesday following the Memorial Day holiday based on a strong showing in the Conference Board's consumer confidence indicator which is interesting - we have found this metric to be of little trading value. However, investors chose to ignore the most recent Case-Shiller home price index that showed home prices continue falling at an accelerating rate....
  • Consolidation continues

    In This Issue:

    Rally on hold...
    Leaders move up
    Earnings still weakening
    Builders get more optimistic but no support from data
    Elliott Wave SPX Perspective

    Quote of the week
    "I used to take $300 for the week -- that was walking- around money. Now I take $100 for the week. Forget about ordering sushi for lunch." Former Bear Stearns trader Guy Irace.

    Rally on hold...
    Now ten-weeks old, the rally spent a second consecutive week consolidating, with the standout exception of the emerging market ETF which moved more than 5% higher. Up more than 30% from its March 6 low, the S&P500 index is still 4% above its 50-day moving average....
  • Leaders languish...

    In This Issue:

    Rally backs off...
    Leaders languish
    Earnings continue to weaken
    Trade deficit rises, Treasury sales inch higher
    Market Yin and Yang
    Elliott Wave SPX Perspective

    Quote of the week
    "Even though economics is a very old subject, it has not truly come to grips with the main difficulty, which is the inordinate practical importance of a few extreme events." Benoit Mandelbrot (1983)

    Rally backs off...
    After nine weeks of gains, the rally finally came to an end this week with all-red across the board for the major indexes. Up 36% from its March 6 low last week, the S&P500 gave back 5% this week but the index is still nearly 6% above its 50-day moving average. And as we see below, earnings continue to decline...

  • Rally takes a breather?

    In This Issue

    Rally takes a breather?
    Leaders bounce back again...
    Earnings forecasts show signs of hope
    Existing and new home sales fall
    Waiting for Case-Shiller
    Treasury demand surges as spending soars

    Quote of the week
    'Tax receipts are just collapsing. [The need to sell more debt] is a big issue in the Treasury market and it is ongoing. The surging budget deficit is the primary cause.' Head Stamford UBS Securities interest-rate strategist Chris Ahrens.

    Rally takes a break?
    It has now been seven weeks since this rally began and this week stocks took a break. Since hitting its low in the first week of March, the S&P500 is up nearly 28%. Last week we mentioned that the S&P500 index was 9.6% above its 50-DMA and that is about where it stayed this week (9.5%) so stocks remain overbought. But indexes are also still banging up against key resistance areas that taken together with how overbought stocks are across the board, increases the chances for a correction. And now this rally is losing momentum. If prices hold up it will show that investor demand and interest in stocks is increasing despite the technicals pointing to a drop. But that must be considered a long shot....
  • Fifth up week in a row

    In This Issue:

    Rally five weeks old...
    Leaders jump out
    Falling consumer spending in the spotlight
    Still in sell mode but...

    Quote of the week
    "When we look at the systematic financial system we're in, and it affects every country in the world including Canada, I think staying bearish is the route to go," Economist Nouriel Roubini.

    Rally finishes fifth week...
    Stocks finished their fifth consecutive week of gains. Given the weak performances Monday and Tuesday with the S&P500 dropping more than 3%, Thursday's strong close with a gain of nearly 4% was a pleasant surprise for the bulls for a number of reasons. It came on the last trading day of a holiday shortened week and a strong close on the last trading day is a bullish sign. It means that investors are confident enough to hold over the weekend and a long one at that. However, weekly volume was below average and that should be a concern....