John Mauldin

  • Negative Rates Nail Savers

    Before we jump in, I want to note that economic chaos is not my only concern. We face a whole different kind of chaos on the geopolitical front. To a considerable degree it overlaps with the economic problems I’ll discuss today. George Friedman has been calling the Eurasian landmass a “cradle of disorder.” It’s home to 5 billion people, and it’s floundering in a sea of accelerating crises.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 09-14-2016
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  • Weapons of Economic Misdirection

    Patrick and Robert co-edit our Macro Growth & Income Alert premium service. As I’ve explained before, for regulatory reasons (since I am registered) I do not discuss specific stocks or other securities in this letter, tending instead to stick to macroeconomic and other big-picture concepts. Patrick and Robert face no such limitations, so after we discuss the macro world, I will drop off and they will talk about how to turn our macro views into real-world investment ideas. I am proud of the team we have assembled here at Mauldin Economics and appreciate the hard work and experience they bring to our readers.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 08-26-2016
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  • The Globalization Disconnect

    In today’s Outside the Box, Stephen Roach, former chairman and chief economist of Morgan Stanley Asia and now a senior fellow at Yale University's Jackson Institute of Global Affairs, tackles the issue of widespread and growing public dissatisfaction – and not just in the US – with globalization.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 08-18-2016
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  • World Gone Backwards

    This week Patrick discusses another aspect of globalization, one that has a direct bearing on questions of equity. He explores the technologies that allowed globalization to take hold and the new technologies that are actually allowing production to “re-shore.” I mentioned that topic in passing last week, and it turned out that one of my readers heads an organization that is focused on assisting companies in re-shoring their production back to the US. He tells me that 250,000 jobs have already returned to the US. Patrick tells us an interesting story about how this trend will continue to unfold.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 08-08-2016
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  • The Bond Market: Beware of Junkyard Dogs

    It should come as no surprise that credit spreads are shrinking between what in theory are risk-free investments and other investments. Retirees and other investors are reaching farther and farther for yield, piling into all sorts of increasingly risky investments.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-25-2016
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  • When the Future Becomes Today

    First, I want to express my shock and quiet despair over the events in Dallas this weekend. The shock comes from this actually happening in Dallas. If anything, Dallas police are accommodating and work with the community as well as any police force in the country. But this event is a reminder that tragedies don’t just happen somewhere else. All it takes is one or two lone actors, and the world of somewhere else lands on your doorstep. This sad spectacle is part and parcel of what we will be discussing today: a world where common sense and reasonable discourse are breaking down, leaving us with social outcomes that only a few years ago would have seemed impossible. As Buffalo Springfield sang, “There’s something happening here; what it is ain’t exactly clear.”

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 07-12-2016
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  • Bill Gross at His Best

    I normally read Bill Gross’s monthly letter the day of or shortly after when it comes out. For whatever reason, I didn’t get around to his early June letter until a few days ago. It has been a few years since I have sent his letter out as your Outside the Box for the week, but I thought this one was so good that I needed to send it on. As it turns out, I went this morning to get it from his website and found that his July letter is out, and it is just as good. Since he writes relatively short letters, I’m going to use both of them.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 07-12-2016
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  • Generational Chaos Ahead

    I had that thought in mind when I asked Neil Howe to be our kick-off speaker at the Strategic Investment Conference and invited Niall Ferguson to wrap it all up three days later. As historians, they both gaze back through time to identify patterns and draw lessons. They were the bookends who framed the wide-ranging discussions in between. They have both been very influential in helping me develop my understanding of the world.

    As I said two weeks ago, the experts I brought to the conference, even the ones I expected to be raging bulls, were mostly bearish. The surprise was Niall Ferguson, who has become the new raging bull. That’s pretty much the one thing you can count on at my conference: surprises! But you can see that even Niall is deeply concerned about much of what is happening in the world.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-20-2016
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  • Hot Summer Economic Weirdness

    As I wrote last month, the protected/unprotected schism increasingly drives both politics and economics. Maybe it has always driven them, and we’re just now recognizing it. In either case, we find ourselves in increasingly weird circumstances. I certainly see parallels with the 1930s. And a number of those circumstances will collide with one another over the next few months.

    My intention this week had been to revisit some of the powerful ideas that were discussed at my Strategic Investment Conference two weeks ago. But events are looming in Europe that absolutely demand our attention. The powerful macroeconomic and investing ideas will still be there next week – and at the end of today’s letter I will discuss an informal poll I’ve conducted on the timing of the next recession.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 06-16-2016
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  • Life on the Edge, Continued

    At the conclusion of my conference yesterday, I did a number of interviews and then made my way a few miles home, collapsed into my favorite chair, and thought back over the myriad of ideas, the whirlwind of friends, and the just general all-around fabulous time I had experienced over the past four days.

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  • Welcome to the Pale Gray Dot

    The aging of the world’s population is already having profound effects on the global economy, and it is only getting started. Today we’ll consider those changes, drawing partly from research conducted by the intrepid volunteers for the demographics chapter of my new book.

    (This letter will print a bit longer because of the large number of charts and graphics. And I apologize for the late delivery of what is supposed to be a weekend letter. I was somewhat distracted by life. My intention is to be better in the future.)

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 04-26-2016
  • 70 Is the New 65

    As some of us know far too well, forecasting the future with any precision is extremely difficult. There’s at least one exception to the rule, though. Population trends show themselves decades and even centuries in advance. If we know how many people were born in a given year, we can extrapolate what the population will look like far in the future.

    On the other hand, demographic forecasting still requires assumptions. At what age will people start having children, and how many will they have? How will new medical advances affect life spans? When will people start working, stop working, and enter retirement? Small changes in any of those assumptions can quickly affect population numbers.

    Today’s Outside the Box wrestles with that last question. In the United States we allowed the federal government to set 65 as the retirement age by making Social Security available to most workers at that point in their lives. The retirement age is going up to 67 for the younger members of the Baby Boom generation, but even that may be too “young” to retire in the future.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 03-23-2016
  • The Fed Prepares to Dive

    This week’s letter has two parts. The first deals with some of the practical aspects of negative rates and what the Fed is really signaling. The second part, which is somewhat philosophical, deals with why the Fed will institute negative rates during the next recession. This letter is longer than usual, but I think it’s important to understand why we will see negative rates in the world’s reserve currency (and the currency in which most global trade is conducted). This policy trend is truly a foray into unexplored territory.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-29-2016
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  • The Debate Over Renminbi Policy

    Today I have a recent piece in which Louis Gave jumps into the team’s debate over renminbi policy. In true Gavekal style, he openly questions what others in the firm think about China’s currency. I won’t steal any of his thunder but just encourage you to read this piece carefully. It covers a great deal of very important ground.

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    Posted to John Mauldin's Outside the Box by John Mauldin on 02-12-2016
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  • $100 Trillion Up in Smoke

    The ongoing oil price collapse is having a severely negative impact on the wealth of those who own oil reserves. The numbers, as you will see below, are almost incomprehensibly big. They are so big, in fact, that many analysts have simply tuned out. The attitude seems to be, “These numbers blow up my models, so I will ignore them.”

    Today we’ll stop dancing around the truth and call the oil collapse what it is: global wealth destruction of epic proportions.

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    Posted to Thoughts From The Frontline by John Mauldin on 02-12-2016
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