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<?xml-stylesheet type="text/xsl" href="http://www.investorsinsight.com/utility/FeedStylesheets/rss.xsl" media="screen"?><rss version="2.0" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/" xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/" xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"><channel><title>Daily Pfennig : rally, QE</title><link>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/rally/QE/default.aspx</link><description>Tags: rally, QE</description><dc:language>en</dc:language><generator>CommunityServer 2008.5 SP1 (Build: 31106.3070)</generator><item><title>Stiglitz Disses The Euro...</title><link>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/2010/10/04/stiglitz-disses-the-euro.aspx</link><pubDate>Mon, 04 Oct 2010 16:34:58 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:5201</guid><dc:creator>Chuck Butler</dc:creator><slash:comments>0</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=5201</wfw:commentRss><wfw:comment xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/commentapi.aspx?PostID=5201</wfw:comment><comments>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/2010/10/04/stiglitz-disses-the-euro.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;p&gt;........But first a word from our sponsor.......&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Hello currency trading. So long market risk. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Discover the latest MarketSafe® CD from EverBank. It was created to help shield you from the volatility associated with currency trading. So now, for a limited time only, you have the unique opportunity to seek growth on the foreign exchange market without the fear of loss of principal. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The new CD has a funding deadline of November 4, 2010, so you must act soon. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;More key details about the CD:&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;*Earnings tied to the performance of a specific currency index *100% protection of deposited principal when held to maturity *$1,500 minimum deposit *4-year term *No account maintenance fees&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Don&amp;#39;t miss the November 4 funding deadline. Apply online now at: &lt;a href="http://www.everbank.com/001CertificatesMSCurrencyReturns.aspx?referid=11808"&gt;http://www.everbank.com/001CertificatesMSCurrencyReturns.aspx?referid=11808&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;© 2010 EverBank. All rights reserved.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;EverBank is an Equal Housing Lender and Member FDIC.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;...........&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;In This Issue..&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Wen confirms Euro Bond purchases...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Overnight rally ends abruptly!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* RBA meets tonight...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Oil price rises to $81!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And Now... Today&amp;#39;s Pfennig!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Stiglitz Disses The Euro...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! The St. Louis Rams won their second consecutive game yesterday! YAHOO! It&amp;#39;s been a month of Sundays since the Rams won two consecutive games! And with a break here or there, they could realistically be 4-0 this year! WOW! So... I&amp;#39;m was fired up yesterday, and it carried over to this morning... That is until I came in and turned on the currency screens!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Just Friday, Chris Gaffney said to me, you know, like you said the other day, &amp;quot;it&amp;#39;s about time the Eurozone GIIPS deficits get back in the news to stop this euro rally&amp;quot;... And so it was to be last night... The euro actually traded over 1.38 last night, to 1.3807... But then Nobel Prize winning economist (I&amp;#39;ve got my own ideas about these guys and their Nobel Prizes but that&amp;#39;s for a night when I&amp;#39;m full of you know what and vinegar), Joseph Stiglitz came out and said, &amp;quot;the euro&amp;#39;s future is looking bleak&amp;quot;... Stiglitz is concerned because countries such as Germany have trade surpluses, while the GIIPS (remember, it&amp;#39;s Greece, Italy, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain) have trade deficits... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;OK... So, that&amp;#39;s Germany&amp;#39;s fault that these countries didn&amp;#39;t see the way you make a wealthy nation is to make things, produce things, invest in those manufacturers, and export? Any way... We used to see that way here in the U.S. but those days are gone with the wind, and Rhett Butler riding off into the sunset! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Well... Since I arrived this morning, the euro has rallied back from 1.3660 to 1.3690... So, maybe the Stiglitz bomb from left field, won&amp;#39;t be that damaging... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The news that pushed the euro over 1.38 came this weekend in comments from the Chinese Premier, Wen, who said that &amp;quot;I have made clear that China supports a stable euro. We will NOT reduce the holdings of European Bonds in our foreign exchange portfolio. Chinas has already bought Greek bonds, and China commits very positively to buy new bonds to be issued by Greece.&amp;quot;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Talk about a boost for the euro! But again, Stiglitz turned the lights out on the rally that came about from comments by the Chinese...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Well, folks... As I said on Friday, I&amp;#39;m 2/3rds toward the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) hiking rates this week (tonight for us, tomorrow for them) after all the things we talked about last week... But there was one more clue for us on Friday... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;You see, Australia tracks the prices of their commodities... Not all commodities, but the ones that are Australia&amp;#39;s, like iron ore, coal, and others. They put their commodities into a Commodity Index... And guess what the index showed last week? &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The August Australian Commodity Index went up 1.5% in September! That puts the index at a 52% increase this year, and is now actually higher than the peak it reached in 2008! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;So... Why has this moved me to believe the RBA WILL HIKE RATES now? Well... The Official Cash Rate (OCR) in Australia back in 2008 was... 7.25%, now it&amp;#39;s 4.5%... Guess what needs to go higher to fight inflation from this commodity boom? You got it! The current Aussie Official Cash Rate! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Don&amp;#39;t expect their OCR to go back to 7.25%... In the near future... But 4.5% is going higher, and if not tonight... The next time the RBA gets together!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;OK... Here in the U.S. the debate about when and how much Quantitative Easing (QE) is going to be administered by the FOMC is dominating the news wires, and TV talking heads. The New York top Fed Head, William Dudley, is convinced that more QE is on the way, unless &amp;quot;the economic outlook evolves in a way that makes me more confident that we will see better outcomes for both employment and inflation before too long.&amp;quot; &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;I guess, the &amp;quot;too long&amp;quot; leaves the door open to wonder how long the FOMC will wait... Well, the FOMC next meets the first week of November, so they&amp;#39;ll get to see 1- month&amp;#39;s worth of data here in the U.S. And at the end of this week, the first of those pieces of data that will move the FOMC will print... This Friday, will be a Jobs Jamboree, with the September labor numbers printing... Right now, the &amp;quot;experts&amp;quot; believe the overall job creation for September will be flat, and may even show a net loss of jobs... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;I would have to say, that if we show a net loss of jobs from September, that the FOMC would most likely begin their process to implement more QE... So, this Friday is HUGE on the data scale... Oh, there will be other data this week, but none-so-important as the Jobs Jamboree on Friday!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The FOMC is just looking for an excuse to begin implementation of their next round of QE... And a less than stellar result for September employment could very well, be the thing the FOMC is looking for... Look folks, the FOMC said in their statement following their last meeting that inflation was too low... Then we had Fed Heads talking all around the country, and all of them were concerned about inflation being too low.... So, in case you missed that, I think it&amp;#39;s Central Bank Parlance for &amp;quot;we going to implement QE and get inflation moving higher again&amp;quot;... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Now... The dollar has already been sold on the QE implications, but what happens when the FOMC actually pulls the trigger? Well... I personally feel that when the FOMC pulls the trigger this time, it will be HUGE! The amount they announce will be so large, that everyone will believe the FOMC really means it when they say that inflation is too low! And the mere size of this next round of QE will &amp;quot;surprise&amp;quot; the markets, and that will cause some major dollar selling... Just my opinion, folks... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;On Friday I talked briefly about the latest run-up in the price of Oil... Well, the price of Oil is still moving higher, reaching $81 this morning. And that, as long time readers of the Pfennig you know, underpins the Canadian dollar / loonie. The Loonie is rising again, getting close to 98-cents. So... What&amp;#39;s your thoughts for the price of Oil? Because if you believe Oil prices will continue to be high, or even go higher, then you&amp;#39;ll want to look to buy loonies... If you don&amp;#39;t believe in the strong Oil prices, then you&amp;#39;ll want to look to sell loonies, and take your profits... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Yes, loonie has other things going for it, like a positive yield differential to the U.S. dollar, but, right now, Oil is ruling the roost... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;I see that Gold and Silver have sold off a bit overnight, with Gold down $3, and Silver down almost a dollar... You would expect to see some profit taking after a week of record setting trading in Gold, and so it is overnight. But, if the U.S. data this week, is weaker and shows more uncertainty... Well, you know the routine...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Lets go back to Friday&amp;#39;s data... Remember, it was the Personal Income and Spending day? Well... Personal Income out lagged Personal Spending for once in August, as Income was up .5%, and Spending was up .4%, and the PCE Deflator that I made a such a big deal out, and even sang Puff the Magic Dragon to, was a non-event... The U. of Michigan saw their Consumer Confidence Index come in flat, and the ISM Manufacturing Index was also flat in August...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;There&amp;#39;s two ways you can look at those &amp;quot;flat&amp;quot; results... Either they are going to slip badly, or they are forming a new base to move higher... Well, since data isn&amp;#39;t like the markets, I would say they are getting ready to slip badly. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Then there was this... Well... I really stirred up a hornet&amp;#39;s nest with my talk about how close the states were to a Constitutional Convention (35 states are &amp;quot;in&amp;quot; 38 states are needed)... Look folks... I was just stating my opinion, I would love to see Senators go back to the way they were assigned by each state. I would love to see income tax revised, and I would love to see the end of the Fed / Cartel... That&amp;#39;s what I meant when I said repeal 1913, for all of those were put in place in 1913, by Woodrow Wilson... But again, it&amp;#39;s just my opinion, if you don&amp;#39;t agree, that&amp;#39;s fine, just say so, there&amp;#39;s no need to call me a &amp;quot;nut job&amp;quot; or other things... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;To recap... The currency rally of Friday, was initially added on to, overnight, as China&amp;#39;s Premier, Wen, voiced confidence in owning European Bonds. But that rally ran into a roadblock put up by Joseph Stiglitz&amp;#39;s comments about the euro. However, since early this morning, the euro has rallied and gained some of its lost ground back. Fed Head Dudley had plenty to say about inflation being too low, and the need for more QE should the economy not turn around... In other words, more QE is coming! The Jobs Jamboree this Friday, should be the keymaster for the gatekeeper... In other words... The FOMC will be looking for any sign of weak data as an excuse to implement QE... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Currencies today 10/4/10: American Style: A$ .9695, kiwi .7425, C$ .98, euro 1.3720, sterling 1.5840, Swiss $1.03, ... European Style: rand 6.95, krone 5.8485, SEK 6.7315, forint 198.35, zloty 2.8790, koruna 17.8210, RUB 30.47, yen 83.25, sing 1.3135, HKD 7.7580, INR 44.55, China 6.6912, pesos 12.54, BRL 1.6895, dollar index 78.30, Oil $81.16, 10-year 2.47%, Silver $22.10, and Gold... $1,317.30&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;That&amp;#39;s it for today... The end of a very frustrating season for my beloved Cardinals came yesterday, with them winning 10 of their last 12... A case of too little, too late for them. I went to the Blues hockey game Saturday night with my buddy, Alex. The Blues CAN be exciting at times... Their real season begins next Saturday night... Good Luck to them! And I see that my beloved Missouri Tigers are now ranked #23! YAHOO! I have a couple of interviews lined up this morning, both of the interviewers want to know my thoughts on Silver, which is pretty timely, eh? Well... Now it&amp;#39;s time to say good bye... I hope your Monday is Marvelous! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Chuck Butler&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;President&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;EverBank World Markets&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;1-800-926-4922&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;1-314-647-3837&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div style="clear:both;"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.investorsinsight.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=5201" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Currencies/default.aspx">Currencies</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Oil/default.aspx">Oil</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Euro/default.aspx">Euro</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/FOMC/default.aspx">FOMC</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/rally/default.aspx">rally</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/bond/default.aspx">bond</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/RBA/default.aspx">RBA</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/QE/default.aspx">QE</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Price/default.aspx">Price</category></item><item><title>Problems For The Dollar Index...</title><link>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/2010/09/29/problems-for-the-dollar-index.aspx</link><pubDate>Wed, 29 Sep 2010 15:04:45 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:5179</guid><dc:creator>Chuck Butler</dc:creator><slash:comments>0</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=5179</wfw:commentRss><wfw:comment xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/commentapi.aspx?PostID=5179</wfw:comment><comments>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/2010/09/29/problems-for-the-dollar-index.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;p&gt;........But first a word from our sponsor.......&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Hello currency trading. So long market risk. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Discover the latest MarketSafe® CD from EverBank. It was created to help shield you from the volatility associated with currency trading. So now, for a limited time only, you have the unique opportunity to seek growth on the foreign exchange market without the fear of loss of principal. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The new CD has a funding deadline of November 4, 2010, so you must act soon. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;More key details about the CD:&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;*Earnings tied to the performance of a specific currency index *100% protection of deposited principal when held to maturity *$1,500 minimum deposit *4-year term *No account maintenance fees&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Don&amp;#39;t miss the November 4 funding deadline. Apply online now at: &lt;a href="http://www.everbank.com/001CertificatesMSCurrencyReturns.aspx?referid=11808"&gt;http://www.everbank.com/001CertificatesMSCurrencyReturns.aspx?referid=11808&lt;/a&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;© 2010 EverBank. All rights reserved.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;EverBank is an Equal Housing Lender and Member FDIC.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;...........&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;In This Issue..&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Currencies rally back...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Swedish krona is top overnight performer...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Eurozone Consumer Confidence is firmer...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* The dollar wins the race to the bottom!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And Now... Today&amp;#39;s Pfennig!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Problems For The Dollar Index...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well... EverBank Field, is pretty cool, I must say! I was sitting in the Atlanta airport yesterday waiting on my connection flight to St. Louis, and doing some reading... I came across some data that just jumped out a bit me on the nose! I immediately fired off a note to Chris and Frank of what I had just read... And now, I get to share it with you!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The dollar index, which is heavily weighted with euros, is sinking fast. How fast is it sinking? I hear you asking... Well, yesterday, even with the brief dollar rally in the early morning, the dollar index was unable to climb back to an 80 level, which is significant enough, but the other thing that happened once the dollar rally was over, was that the dollar index saw it&amp;#39;s 55 day moving average fall through it&amp;#39;s 200-day moving average... For all you chartists out there, that&amp;#39;s HUGE, Right? Yes... It is... So, yesterday when I sent the note to Chris and Frank, the dollar index was hanging on to 79... Today, this morning, it is 78.82... The low this year was 76.60 back in January, before all the Eurozone GIIPS began to show rot on their vines. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;For those of you keeping score at home, the dollar index reached a high of 88.71 back in June... So... Like I said the other day, the move in the currencies is very strong since June, and this dollar index data proves that!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;OK... What caused the turn-around has quite a few opinions going around... But what I can tell you for sure, is that the recent run on the dollar has been the FOMC meeting, and the dance around the fact that they are planning to implement more Quantitative Easing (QE)... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;When a central bank goes down the road of QE, they might as well, just come out and devalue their currency too, because the QE is the sharpest knife in the currency debasement drawer. And... It&amp;#39;s what a central bank does when they&amp;#39;ve cut their interest rates to the bone, and have no other arrows in their quiver...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And then yesterday with all the dollar selling going on... The U.S. saw Consumer Confidence this month fall more than expected... Which, all I&amp;#39;ll say, is &amp;quot;it&amp;#39;s about time!&amp;quot; The Consumer Confidence Index fell from 53.2 to 48.5... A 4.7 point drop in one month, which saw a deterioration of both the &amp;quot;present situation&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;expectations&amp;quot; components of the index. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And I keep hearing people who should know better say things like &amp;quot;the economy is recovering&amp;quot; and &amp;quot;we&amp;#39;ll not see a double dip&amp;quot;... Well, to the second part of that statement, they&amp;#39;ll be technically correct... What? Yes... You see, once the group of people that decide when recessions start and end, said that this recession ended in &amp;quot;June of 2009&amp;quot;, that meant that if the U.S. goes into a recession again, it will not be considered a &amp;quot;double dip&amp;quot; because too much time has passed... It&amp;#39;s all just grasping at straws folks... Double dip, large scoop, whatever... It&amp;#39;s not good, and the sooner the Gov&amp;#39;t admits it, and gets out of the way, the sooner we can get on with recovering!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The Asian and Pan-Asian currencies are in rally mode this morning, after China printed a stronger than expected manufacturing report... Here&amp;#39;s the skinny... China&amp;#39;s Manufacturing PMI (index, that&amp;#39;s reported the same as ours), rose to 52.9, from 51.9 last month, which is the strongest monthly print since May... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Speaking of China... I should note that I&amp;#39;ve read a lot about this row they are having with Japan right now... China has flexed their muscles, and Japan is eating spinach, in an attempt to match muscle strength... And now China has blocked the exports of rare earth minerals to Japan... You might be asking me what rare earth minerals are... They are metals that are a collection of 17 chemical elements are considered rare earths... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Any way... This saber rattling between China and Japan is not a good thing, folks, and let&amp;#39;s hope that it&amp;#39;s just a tempest in a teapot... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The euro traded to 1.3625 last night, then saw selling that took it down to 1.3580, where is was when I turned on the currency screens, but now has rallied back above 1.36 again... The euro got a bump when Consumer Confidence in the Eurozone printed firmer than expected, on the rising exports... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Speaking of Consumer Confidence, Sweden printed a Confidence report last night, that showed consumer confidence rising to its highest level in over 10 years!!!!!! Yes, that note got 6 exclamation points because 10 years is long time! Sweden also saw their manufacturing confidence print at a multi-year high... So... It shall be that the Swedish krona was the best performer overnight!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;In recent times, whenever I speak, I get a few people that tell me diversifying with currencies is wasted time, because, it&amp;#39;s just a race to the bottom by all countries with their currencies... But, I point out that while I don&amp;#39;t believe that wholeheartedly, if it does happen... The U.S. is leading the race, in fact they&amp;#39;re already running ahead of the crowd, which will mean that the currencies hold a &amp;quot;edge&amp;quot; over the dollar, in a race to the bottom, because the dollar will be the winner, winner, chicken dinner!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;OK... In defense of my statement that I do not believe that &amp;quot;wholeheartedly&amp;quot;... The Aussie dollar (A$) is within 1 1/2-cents of its all-time high, that it reached in July of 2008... So... I guess the A$ is not participating in the race, eh? The only race the A$ is in, is the one to the top! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Speaking of the top... The Swiss franc continues to move higher past parity with the dollar, and is now $1.02... In 1971, when the dollar was bounced from the Bretton Woods Agreement, because Richard Nixon had closed the Gold window because of too much deficit spending, which at that time was nothing compared to the deficit spending going on now, you could get over 4 Swiss francs for $1 dollar... Today? You can&amp;#39;t even get 1 franc with a dollar! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And while we&amp;#39;re talking about being on top... How about Gold and Silver? Apparently, $1,300 and $21 respectively for Gold and Silver, are not scaring away investors, because the prices are still rising. Remember, just last week Silver reached $21 and that was &amp;quot;cause to celebrate&amp;quot;? Well... Don&amp;#39;t look now, but Silver has $22 in its sights, which seems pretty fast considering how long it took for Silver to reach $21... But for people like me that have held Silver since the early 80&amp;#39;s... It hasn&amp;#39;t been fast enough!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;I&amp;#39;m really onboard the Silver Bullet, and no I&amp;#39;m not talking about Coors Light! I&amp;#39;m talking about Silver as an investment, and the prospects of the shiny metal to continue to move higher... You see, $1,300 for Gold pretty much prices Joe-six pack from the market... But... Even at $21, Silver is within reach... Think about that for a minute...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The data cupboard here in the U.S. has been emptied out, and the markets will have to depend on other things to drive them once Europe closes down. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Then there was this... Household incomes plunged for the second year in a row in 2009, as fewer families earned over $100,000 a year while the ranks of the poor rose, according to census statistics released Tuesday. News that U.S. households are spending less and saving more, ultimately reducing their debt, might appear to be an uplifting scenario. In reality, many of those households are defaulting on their debt, not tightening their belts. Capital Economics Group reported that almost half of a $77 billion decline in total household debt during the second quarter was because of bank charge-offs of credit card debt, residential mortgages and other consumer loans. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Chuck again... Hmmm... Doesn&amp;#39;t sound like the correct medicine for a recovery, but then, I look at things logically, and through rose colored glasses like the media and Gov&amp;#39;t... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;To recap... A brief sell off in the currencies overnight, didn&amp;#39;t last long as Eurozone Consumer Confidence was stronger than expected, and boosted the euro back over 1.36 this morning. The A$ is closing in on its all-time high, and the Swiss franc just keeps adding on to its already higher than parity to the dollar figure. The dollar index&amp;#39;s 55-day moving avg. fell through the 200-day moving avg. thus pointing to potential further gains for the currencies. The data cupboard is empty today.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Currencies today 9/29/10: American Style: A$ .9715, kiwi .74, C$ .9730, euro 1.3615, sterling 1.5765, Swiss $1.0230, ... European Style: rand 6.95, krone 5.8535, SEK 6.7320, forint 203, zloty 2.9220, koruna 18.07, RUB 30.41, yen 83.60, sing 1.3160, HKD 7.7575, INR 44.91, China 6.6868, pesos 12.44, BRL 1.7075, dollar index 78.75, Oil $76.42, 10-year 2.47%, Silver $21.91, and Gold... $1,310.20&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;That&amp;#39;s it for today... After two days of no afternoon nap, I got home yesterday afternoon, and napped for a couple of hours! Travel just wears me out, and I don&amp;#39;t know why... I&amp;#39;ve got two more trips this year... The Toronto Money Show in two weeks, and then the Sov. Society&amp;#39;s Offshore Conference in Cabo in Nov. A day game at Busch Stadium today, even though the Cardinals fell flat on their collective faces in the stretch run, it&amp;#39;s a day game, the way all baseball games should be played! And with that... I&amp;#39;ll get this out the door... I hope your Wednesday is Wonderful!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Chuck Butler&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;President&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;EverBank World Markets&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;1-800-926-4922&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;1-314-647-3837&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div style="clear:both;"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.investorsinsight.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=5179" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Currencies/default.aspx">Currencies</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Dollar/default.aspx">Dollar</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Inflation/default.aspx">Inflation</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/China/default.aspx">China</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Silver/default.aspx">Silver</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Gold/default.aspx">Gold</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Consumer+Confidence/default.aspx">Consumer Confidence</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Eurozone/default.aspx">Eurozone</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/rally/default.aspx">rally</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/QE/default.aspx">QE</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/swedish+krona/default.aspx">swedish krona</category></item><item><title>Running Scared...</title><link>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/2010/09/22/running-scared.aspx</link><pubDate>Wed, 22 Sep 2010 14:35:48 GMT</pubDate><guid isPermaLink="false">94e1e1ff-3922-415d-9584-19119299714b:5165</guid><dc:creator>Chuck Butler</dc:creator><slash:comments>0</slash:comments><wfw:commentRss xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/rsscomments.aspx?PostID=5165</wfw:commentRss><wfw:comment xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/">http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/commentapi.aspx?PostID=5165</wfw:comment><comments>http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/2010/09/22/running-scared.aspx#comments</comments><description>&lt;p&gt;........But first a word from our sponsor.......&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;EverBank® Metals Select&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The investor-friendly way to buy gold and silver&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;A better way to tap into gold and silver reserves, the EverBank Metals Select account from EverBank offers the nation&amp;#39;s best combination of choice, value, and convenience. Choose from a variety of storage options and account features. Call 800.926.4922 or visit us online at &lt;a href="http://www.everbank.com"&gt;www.everbank.com&lt;/a&gt; to learn more.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;.............................................&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;&lt;b&gt;In This Issue..&lt;/b&gt;&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Markets think FOMC will do QE soon...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Currencies rally along with Gold &amp;amp; Silver...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Euro moves through 200-day moving avg.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;* Time for the media to shift focus again?&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And Now... Today&amp;#39;s Pfennig!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Running Scared...&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! The FOMC has opened Pandora&amp;#39;s Box of currency rallies and dollar sell-offs, and I&amp;#39;m not talking range trade rallies. I&amp;#39;m talking all-out, no prisoners taken, rallies VS the dollar... Let&amp;#39;s go to the tape!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;So... The FOMC is worried... But not worried enough to implement Quantitative Easing (QE) RIGHT NOW. But they opened Pandora&amp;#39;s Box of future QE, with a statement that went like this... &amp;quot;we are willing to ease monetary policy further to spur growth and support prices while refraining today from expanding its holdings of securities. The Committee will continue to monitor the economic outlook and financial developments and is prepared to PROVIDE ADDITIONAL ACCOMMODATION IF NEEDED to support the economic recovery and to return INFLATION OVER TIME to levels consistent with its mandate.&amp;quot; &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The markets took this simply as... &amp;quot;the FOMC might not have expanded their holdings of securities now... But they are prepared to do so... And if they are prepared to do so, they will!&amp;quot; So... It was as if the FOMC actually announced the implementation of additional QE! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;You should have seen the currency screens light up... OMG! At first, the only currencies not rallying were Mexican pesos, Gold and Silver... But that didn&amp;#39;t last long, and soon all currencies were taking liberties with the dollar. It&amp;#39;s been some time since I last saw a move like this... Well, let&amp;#39;s see... The last time I saw a move like this, was the last time the FOMC announced Quantitative Easing... March 2009... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;On a sidebar, just to show you how dedicated I am, I was in Jupiter FL at Cardinals&amp;#39; Spring Training, when I heard the news... I got in my car, and drove to Del Rey Beach, to the Sovereign Society Home office, to inform my publisher, the lovely, Erika Nolan, that the dollar index had fallen through its 200-day moving avg, and that we should remove any dollar long ETF&amp;#39;s that were present on the Currency Capitalist portfolio! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Ok... I know, I get a gold star... But what about now Chuck, you said yesterday that if they try to do it stealth like the dollar could see a bit of a rally... That was wrong, as the dollar was sold like funnel cakes at a state fair. I guess, their &amp;quot;stealth-like&amp;quot; wasn&amp;#39;t so &amp;quot;stealth-like&amp;quot;, eh? The markets took them as the Quantitative Easing Central Bankers that the are, and will punish the dollar for that now!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Yeah, that&amp;#39;s the ticket... The markets took the FOMC non-move as a &amp;quot;move&amp;quot;, which I said would be met with a huge currency rally... And it was!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And guess what else happened yesterday afternoon once the currency screens began to light up? The euro flew through its 200-day moving avg price of 1.3220... So, it&amp;#39;s all ON this morning, as the Asians ambushed the dollar too, and then the European session has brought even more dollar selling, brining the euro to the doorstep of 1.34!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;As I look out on the currency horizon, I see the &amp;quot;non-euro&amp;quot; currencies trading with a purpose this morning... The currencies from countries that have already widened their rate differential to the U.S. and are in line for more widening, are the currencies that have made the strongest moves VS the dollar (except the euro of course, which is the off-set currency to the dollar). &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Aussie dollars (A$), kiwi, loonies, Krones, reals, these currencies already enjoy an interest rate differential to the dollar, and the markets believe, along with me, that interest rates in all of these currencies are going to go higher as we move into 2011... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;The dollar? Well... The FOMC also said that interest rates would remain at &amp;quot;ultra lows&amp;quot; for an extended time... So... It makes sense for the currencies from countries that already enjoy a rate differentials to the dollar, rally stronger than other currencies, this morning!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;And looky there! Gold is nearing $1,300, as it builds on a rally that has moved the shiny metal to $1,293 this morning... And don&amp;#39;t forget Silver! Looky there! Silver is trading above $21 this morning! WOW! &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;So... I know, you think I&amp;#39;m just a hootin&amp;#39; and a hollerin&amp;#39; this morning because of the currency rally... But that would be wrong... Folks... I&amp;#39;m happy for the people that listened, battened down the hatches and maybe bought more currency on the dips, because this is what they hedged their portfolio for... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;But... I think the FOMC is scared... And I think the Administration is scared... The markets are certainly scared... And I am too! I&amp;#39;m scared of what this is all leading to... I could go to the back of the dark closet right now and bring out Chuck&amp;#39;s thoughts on where this is leading us, but that wouldn&amp;#39;t do us any good... The thing that&amp;#39;s more important is to make certain that you have protected your earnings, and accumulated wealth, for when those things come out of the back of the dark closet, you will see why I cried from the hill tops for years now about deficit spending... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;I can hear some of you saying, Chuck, what does deficit spending have to do with the economic malaise we are in right now? Ahhh grasshopper... You know the song that goes, one thing leads to another? Well... With the Gov&amp;#39;t all bottled up trying to deal with financing of the deficit spending, they took their eye off the economy ball... And when they realized what was happening, it was too late! That&amp;#39;s the simplistic explanation, rather then going deep into the deficit spending debacle!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Well... 3 of the 4 members of the President&amp;#39;s economic team have either left or are leaving soon, which leaves us with U.S. Treasury Sec. Geithner... Shoot Rudy, in my opinion, he should have been the first one to leave, 2 years ago! But, he&amp;#39;s still here, and still walking around with the blinders on that he wore while he was President of the NY Fed, before the financial meltdown... He says that he believes in a strong dollar policy, but then turns around and bangs on China to allow their currency to strengthen VS the dollar... You can&amp;#39;t have a strong dollar, and allow another currency to be strong at the same time, Timmy... It just doesn&amp;#39;t work like that!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;I guess where I was going with that at first, was not to center on Geithner, but to talk about the economic advisors leaving the Administration... I think its akin to David Walker, the former head of the General Accounting Office, who left his job because no one would listen to him, that the country couldn&amp;#39;t keep deficit spending... He has written a book with his suggestions, and is going around the country now, trying to spread the gospel... Good Luck David... I hope you get your message across!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;OK... We have a couple of items outside the U.S. to talk about today... First is the July Retail sales data for Canada, which I expect to be better than expected. Second, is a Norges Bank (Norway) meeting, which I expect nothing to come from... I do expect the Norges Bank to hike rates next month, but for now, I think they&amp;#39;ll keep their powder dry... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Does this sound like a country whose economy is about to collapse?&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;China may increase its minimum wage by more than 20% annually over the next five years, to boost domestic consumption, according to the South China Morning Post, citing Huang Mengfu, vice-chairman of the National Council of Chinese People&amp;#39;s Political Consultative Conference and chairman of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce.&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Slowing down? Probably... Moderating?.. Probably... Collapsing?... Hardly!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;OK... I&amp;#39;m seeing just a bit of slippage as I get ready to head to the Big Finish... I&amp;#39;m sure the NY traders are arriving at their desks, seeing these lofty levels and taking some profits this morning, don&amp;#39;t you think? &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Here&amp;#39;s something that&amp;#39;s on my mind about all this... It&amp;#39;s about time for the media to focus on the European debt crisis again, don&amp;#39;t you think? I mean, hasn&amp;#39;t that been the arrows in the U.S.&amp;#39;s quiver, to keep the dollar from a complete collapse? I think so... I think that we&amp;#39;ll see the media begin to bring the heat on the Eurozone GIIPS again, and you have to wonder why they shift like that... Hmmm could it be the Gov&amp;#39;t directing them? &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;I think so... But, that&amp;#39;s just Chuck and his conspiracy thoughts... Better leave him alone with those thoughts right now... HA!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Then there was this... Ok... This is another Conspiracy thought by Chuck, so if you&amp;#39;ve grown tired of this, skip ahead to the recap... This is from the Washington Post... Some of the nation&amp;#39;s largest mortgage companies used a single document processor who said he signed off on foreclosures without having read the paperwork - an admission that may open the door for homeowners across the country to challenge foreclosure proceedings. The legal predicament compelled Ally Financial, the nation&amp;#39;s fourth-largest home lender, to halt evictions of homeowners in 23 states this week. Now it appears hundreds of other companies, including mortgage giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, may also be affected because they use Ally to service their loans. &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Chuck again... Hmmm... Recall that I told you months ago that Ally Financial is owned by the Gov&amp;#39;t... It&amp;#39;s the old GMAC... So.. Isn&amp;#39;t it strange to you that Ally is now so powerful overseeing foreclosures? And... Here&amp;#39;s where Chuck dives in deep... Hasn&amp;#39;t it been a project of the Gov&amp;#39;t to stop foreclosures? Well, the Gov&amp;#39;t owns the company that processes foreclosures... Hmmm... &lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;To recap... The FOMC is worried, and running scared folks... They talked about the need for inflation, and that rates would remain at ultra lows for an extended time, and that they would step in to provide additional accommodation (read Quantitative Easing) should the economy need it. The markets took this as if the FOMC actually announced QE, and the rout on the dollar was on, remained on in Asian trading, and now European trading. The euro has traded through and closed higher than its 200-day moving avg, which is HUGE for the single unit, and the currencies with yield differential to the dollar are out performing the other non-euro currencies. Gold is above $1,290 and Silver above $21!!!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Currencies today 9/22/10... American Style: .9570, kiwi .7385, C$ .98, euro 1.3380, sterling 1.5660, Swiss 1.0110, ... European Style: rand 7.00, krone 5.9220, SEK 6.82, forint 208.65, zloty 2.9440, koruna 18.34, RUB 30.99, yen 84.60, sing 1.3255, HKD 7.76, INR 45.55, China 6.6910, pesos 12.69, BRL 1.71, dollar index 79.86, Oil $75.30, 10-year 2.54%, (Treasuries rallied, because if the FOMC is going to buy them, traders see a rally they want to be a part of), Silver $21.08, and Gold... $1,291.20&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;That&amp;#39;s it for today... This last day of summer 2010! Yes, autumn begins tomorrow, and while autumn has the most consistent nice weather we get here in St. Louis, it also leads us to Winter... UGH! With every year that I age, the cold weather is worse for me... But, I can&amp;#39;t let that get me down now! It&amp;#39;s still summer! Well at least today it is! I&amp;#39;m sitting here bopping around while typing to the tunes of Al Green... Let&amp;#39;s Stay Together... A classic! Remember last year, when my knee acted up and I received a shot in the knee? Well, the pain is back! UGH! I guess I need another shot! OK... It&amp;#39;s that time... I hope your Wednesday is Wonderful, and be glad your diversified this morning!&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;Chuck Butler&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;President&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;EverBank World Markets&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;1-800-926-4922&lt;/p&gt;  &lt;p&gt;1-314-647-3837&lt;/p&gt;&lt;div style="clear:both;"&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;img src="http://www.investorsinsight.com/aggbug.aspx?PostID=5165" width="1" height="1"&gt;</description><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Currencies/default.aspx">Currencies</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Silver/default.aspx">Silver</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Gold/default.aspx">Gold</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Euro/default.aspx">Euro</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Economy/default.aspx">Economy</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/FOMC/default.aspx">FOMC</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/Europe/default.aspx">Europe</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/rally/default.aspx">rally</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/QE/default.aspx">QE</category><category domain="http://www.investorsinsight.com/blogs/dailypfennig/archive/tags/global/default.aspx">global</category></item></channel></rss>