Daily Pfennig : elections

Jobs data pushes speculators out of the market...

Chuck Butler — Mon, 07 May 2012 18:42:11 GMT

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In This Issue.

* Jobs numbers disappoint...

* Elections in Europe...

* Oil falls below $100...

* RBA weighs on the Aussie dollar...

And, Now, Today's Pfennig For Your Thoughts!

Jobs data pushes speculators out of the market...

Good day. And welcome to another week. Chuck finally made it back home last night, after speaking at two different conferences last week down in Florida. We had a pretty wicked night of thunderstorms last night, so I'm sure Chuck's flight wasn't exactly smooth. Sure hope he got over that stomach thing which he had on Friday.

Currency investors weren't feeling too good either Friday, as a weak jobs number here in the US was a lot like bad shrimp for non-dollar investors. The traditional 'safe haven' currencies of the Japanese yen and US$ moved up Friday after US payrolls added just 115,000 workers, the smallest increase in six months. As Chuck informed us all on Friday, the median estimate of economists was for a 160,000 increase. In a bit of an odd twist, the jobless rate actually fell to a three year low of 8.1%.

Chuck sent me this note after reading about the jobs numbers last Friday: Well. we sure did see a prime example of a Risk Off Day on Friday, with all the risk assets getting taken to the woodshed after the Jobs report. You may recall me saying on Friday that in recent times, the markets had treated the Jobs report outcome like it should, and that if the number of jobs created in April were weaker than forecast (they were 115,000 VS 160,000 forecast) that the markets would view this as a primer for QE3, which would be dollar negative.

However, after the knee jerk reaction to the report had the dollar on the run, the currencies' fortunes turned on a dime. and it was back to the old trading theme of: Bad data in the U.S. equals buy dollar bias. Who knew? Would someone that has some influence over the markets, tell them that investors want to know ahead of time which curtain they should choose!

The thing though that kept creeping into my mind about this whole report, and it making two consecutive reports, is that thing I've tried to put into your minds about the financial storm. and how we had looked pretty good for a short time, but we were in the eye of the storm. It appears to me that we're entering the other side of the storm, and it could very well be worse than the front of the storm that hit in 2008. For. we didn't correct anything!

Oh. and in keeping with my usual dig deeper than journalists routine with the jobs data. The BLS added 206,000 jobs to the 115,000 total.. which, without the adjustment, job creation would have been negative!

Back to Chris now. Thanks to Chuck for his intuitive analysis of the currency markets reaction to the jobs numbers. One thing which I noticed when I was going over the jobs reports this weekend was the 'participation rate' which fell to the lowest in over 30 years. The participation rate indicates the share of working-age people who are in the labor force. This percentage fell to 63.6% from a reading of 63.8% last month. I highlight this number because it shows why the jobless rate can be falling in spite of lower hiring. People who are working age are simply leaving the workforce, too aggravated in their hopeless attempt to find a job. While their exit from the available workforce currently has a positive impact on the unemployment rate, as the US economy starts to recover, we could see these workers move back into the workforce. This would have a drag on the recovery of the jobless rate, with a deluge of new workers entering the market offsetting those leaving the unemployed ranks due to new hiring.

Investors will need to keep an eye on this participation rate in the coming months, as the Federal Reserve is certainly keying on the jobs side of the economy. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said last week that the central bank is 'prepared to do more' to boost the economy if it appears necessary. US policy makers have repeated their plan to hold borrowing costs low through 2014 as the US economy slowly recovers. "The Unemployment rate has declined but remains elevated," Fed policy makers said in an April 25 statement. The FOMC "expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually," and "anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually."

Uncertainty regarding the elections in Europe also weighed on investor's confidence on Friday, causing many of the speculators to move money back into the US$. There were no surprises in France, as the French booted out President Nicolas Sarkozy and voted instead for Monsieur Francois Hollande, the Socialist candidate. Chuck pointed out last week that this result was expected (Hollande even appeared on last week's cover of The Economist magazine). But while the election results were expected, the direction he will take France is not so clear. German Chancellor Merkel invited Hollande to Germany to discuss the Eurozone's growth policies. President elect Hollande campaigned on a 'balanced' approach to the Euro, offsetting austerity measures favored by Germany with efforts to stimulate growth. It will be interesting to see if Hollande can be persuaded by Angela Merkel, who has mostly had her way in guiding the Eurozone recovery efforts.

Even more uncertainty resulted from the other big election over the weekend. Greek voters picked anti-bailout parties, but none of these minor parties garnered enough votes to form a government straight away. New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras is trying to piece together a government, and was given three days to make it happen. Members of the Greek government are split down the middle on whether to reneg on the terms of the bailout agreements. If Samaras is not able to put together a government, the second place winner will get 3 days to try, and if they can't then it falls to the third place party who will get another 3 days. If no government can be formed in the next 9 days, President Karolos Papoulias will get a chance to broker a government of national unity with another round of elections a possibility.

The major risk is that no government is formed, and there is no one able to continue the austerity measures necessary for Greece to continue to receive the Euro bailout funds. European leaders could shut the flow of funds off, fearing they are throwing good money after bad (there seems to be some truth to that statement). Eventually we could see Greece be forced out of the euro, causing another round of fear over what will happen if one of the members exits. In my mind it is pretty simple, the euro is much stronger without Greece, but the Greek exit probably won't be a smooth and painless event. A report I read over the weekend agrees with my thought that a Euro ex-Greece would actually appreciate. According to the report, the euro would rise to $1.36 'the second they say Greece is out'.

Economic data out of Europe today showed German factory orders rose more than economists forecast in March as global demand help offset a slowdown in the Eurozone. Factory orders jumped 2.2% from February, topping economists projections of a .5% increase. Today's numbers were a positive surprise following Friday's data which showed a euro-area composite index dropped. April's index, based on a survey of purchasing managers in both services and manufacturing industries dropped to 46.7 from 49.1 in March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction.

Chuck spoke about the slippery slope oil was starting down on Friday morning, and it continued to lose throughout the day to close below $100 for the first time since February. The drop in crude prices was the result of the combination of poor jobs data here in the US and investor worries over the elections in Europe. The commodity currencies dependent on oil sold off, with the Canadian dollar dropping for a third day in a row. The loonie lost over 1.6% vs. the dollar last week as reports indicated both the US and Canadian economies would not recover as quickly as some thought. Many had predicted the Bank of Canada would be increasing rates this summer, but the probability of a rate rise by September now stands at less than half, down from two thirds at the start of the week according to Bloomberg.

The drop in oil prices will also weigh on the Norwegian krone, but the impact may not be as great as you may expect. A story I read yesterday showed that higher oil prices have actually helped Norway's government hold the value of the krone down. Yes, it sounds counter-intuitive, but high oil prices have actually given Norway's leaders the ability to sell more of the Norwegian krone back into the market in an effort to hold down the krone's value. Norway is the seventh-largest oil exporter, and the recent higher prices have caused a surge in the government's oil revenues. Norway's central bank is predicted to sell an average of 727 million Norwegian kroner a day for the rest of the year, up from 350 million in May. The bank has cut rates twice since December, in part to weaken the currency, and the oil revenues have given them the ability to keep a lid on the Norwegian krone.

Investors have shown an interest in the Norwegian krone in spite of the government's efforts to cap its appreciation. Norway's economy will expand 3.25% this year according to central bank estimates, and the unemployment rate was just 2.6% in April, Europe's lowest level. The oil revenues have made Norway the world's second richest nation per capita according to The Economist magazine. This has caused many to look toward Norway as a safe haven, seeking shelter from Europe's debt crisis.

The other commodity currencies of Australia, New Zealand, South Africa, and Brazil all sold off as risk was taken off. As Chuck informed readers last week, the RBA surprised many in the markets with a 50 bps rate cut. Many investors now believe the RBA will reduce its benchmark rate even further to an all time low after officials cut forecasts for growth and inflation. Governor Glenn Stevens cited economic conditions that were somewhat weaker than expected as a reason for the cut. The RBA is now predicting average growth of 3% in 2012, down from a February estimate of 3.5%. Consumer prices are predicted to rise 2.5% in the year, down a bit from a previous prediction of 3%. Lower inflation expectations combined with slower growth will probably cause further rate cuts by the RBA in the coming months.

It will be a relatively slow week for data here in the US, with consumer credit today followed by a couple of 'optimism' measures tomorrow (NFIB Small Business Optimism and IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism). Wednesday we will get the Wholesale Inventories and MBA Mortgage Application numbers. Thursday will be the busiest day, with the weekly jobs numbers along with the Trade Balance, Monthly Budget Statement, and Import Price Index. Friday will close out the week with the PPI numbers along with the U of Mich confidence index.

To recap. It was a risk off day on Friday after the jobs data in the US came in a surprisingly weak 115k. Bad data in the US combined with uncertainty over in Europe to push investors back into the 'safe havens' of the US$ and Japanese yen. French voters elected a new president from the Socialist party, and Greek voters threw their government back into disarray. Neither is positive news for the Euro which sold off a bit. But if the Greeks exit, we could see the Euro rally to $1.36. Oil fell below $100 a barrel, pushing the CAD$ down. Norway's oil revenues have been used to keep a lid on the value of the NOK. And the commodity currencies of Aussie, kiwi, and rand were all lower.

Currencies today 5/7/12. American Style: A$ $1.0187, kiwi .7955, C$ $1.0035, euro 1.3024, sterling 1.6164, Swiss $1.0843, . European Style: rand 7.8276, krone 5.8111, SEK 6.8451, forint 220.19, zloty 3.2236, koruna 19.2425, RUB 30.065, yen 79.81, sing 1.2479, HKD 7.7623, INR 52.922, China 6.3078, pesos 13.2193, BRL 1.9276, Dollar Index 79.734, Oil $97.78, 10-year 1.84%, Silver $30.2825, Gold $1,639.07, and Platinum $1,528.50.

That's it for today. A couple of tough losses for the Blues as they got swept out of the 2nd round of the Stanley Cup playoffs by a very strong LA Kings hockey team. The Kings are the first team in NHL history to knock off both the #1 and #2 seeds in the same year. If their goaltending keeps up, I think they are going to be a tough team to beat! I spent all weekend outside working on a project in the back yard. My kids call it the 'bridge to no-where' as I am building a stone bridge crossing a dry creek bed which runs through my yard. Wanted to get it done for my wife before mother's day, but with all the rain I don't think I am going to make my goal. Looks like more rain today, it was pouring down on my drive in. So it will be a stormy start to the week, just hope the markets aren't too stormy for us. Hope everyone has a Marvelous Monday and a great start to your week! Thanks for reading the Pfennig.

Chris Gaffney, CFA

Vice President

EverBank World Markets

1-800-926-4922

1-314-647-3837

Get ready for a volatile week in the markets...

Chuck Butler — Mon, 01 Nov 2010 15:13:00 GMT

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In This Issue.

* Elections & Central Banks make for a volatile week...

* Chinese manufacturing drives emerging markets...

* Will the RBA take action???

* Brazil finally has a new President...

And Now... Today's Pfennig!

Get ready for a volatile week in the markets...

Good day... Chuck is getting on a plane bound for Mexico this morning, so I will be bringing you the Pfennig this week. As usual, Chuck left me a note to share with all the readers last night, so heeerrreees Chuck:

I just got off the phone with a radio station in Ann Arbor, Michigan, and what was going to be 15 minutes turned into 1 hour. the station just let me talk. it was amazing! The people of Ann Arbor, and anywhere else they tuned in on the internet, got to hear 1 hour of Chuck speak.

On Friday, we saw more healing in the currencies and metals, from the price action earlier in the week. Gold jumped up $15, and I have to think that some of that gain came from the heightened risk from the packages from Yemen. I tell you all the time that we have a ton of nut-jobs running around the world, wanting to blow this up, or wipe this country off the map, and Gold with Silver tagging along, will always be sought when geopolitical risks elevate.

So. welcome to November. I used to complain about November a lot, but the past couple of Novembers haven't been that bad, so I'll wait to complain. HA! This first week of November is going to be quite full of risks. with the FOMC meeting tomorrow, the pending announcement of QEII, and the Jobs Jamboree on Friday. I've already beaten the thoughts for QEII to death, so I'll let Chris take it from here!

I'm back now, and thanks again to Chuck for leaving me a little something to get the words flowing. As Chuck suggests, you all better fasten your seat belts, because this week is looking like it could be a doozy. I was paging through some research last night preparing for this morning and I couldn't help but get a bit worried about what the week will bring for the currency markets. The US elections, followed by announcements by all of the major central banks could form a 'perfect storm' in the currency markets with volatility pushing the dollar to extremes.

The week will start off fairly quiet as we will get Personal Income and Spending information for the US later this morning. Both income and spending is predicted to have risen a bit in September, with spending rising faster than incomes (no real surprise there!). We will also see the ISM Manufacturing data which will likely show a small decrease in US manufacturing activity last month. These data releases also include inflationary estimates, and both the PCE Deflator and ISM Prices Paid numbers are expected to show no inflationary pressures exist in the US markets. This is important, as Bernanke and his buddies need to be able to point to the inflation data to assure the markets that the US economy can handle another round of QE. As long as the data continue to show inflation is being held back, the FOMC will likely push more liquidity into the markets.

As Chuck pointed out in the opening paragraphs, the markets are pretty much ignoring tomorrow's US elections, and are instead focusing on the FOMC's announcement which should be released Wednesday afternoon. I for one can't wait to get these elections over with, as I have had enough of the negative ads and intrusive phone calls from both political parties each evening. It will be interesting to see just how many incumbents get the boot tomorrow. But it seems the markets either don't really care who is in charge of the House and Senate or maybe they realize that it doesn't really matter who has the helm of a rudderless boat! The debt burden which the US has accumulated is pushing us down a scary path, and our elected officials have little control over the direction we are heading. But we have to continue to try and take back control of this economy, and tomorrow's elections may be a start. Currency traders are looking past the elections and focusing on the 33 hours following during which all of the major central banks will be making rate announcements.

Central banks are locked in a 'race to the bottom' for their currencies, as both the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan are expected to announce further measures to keep borrowing costs low in order to spur growth. With interest rates already as low as they can get them, both central banks are looking to perform another round of quantitative easing by purchasing debt, pumping fresh cash into the markets. With all of the QE talk pushing the dollar and yen lower, European central banks are working to make sure their currencies don't appreciate too quickly. The ECB is reminding the markets that the European sovereign debt crisis is still hanging around, an obvious attempt at 'jawbone' intervention. Recoveries in the major global economies have largely been based on exports, so these central bankers want to try and keep the value of their currencies down in order to keep exports up. But the currency markets are a 'zero sum' game, and while many believe all fiat currencies will eventually fall to their intrinsic value (the value of the paper they are printed on) for now if one currency is falling, another has to rise.

The race to the bottom by the US, Japan, and the ECB is benefitting the emerging markets and any country which is not looking to lower rates. In Europe, we have seen recent gains in the Pound Sterling which is trading at the highest level in 9 months vs. the US$. This strength comes on the back of data showing a jump in GDP and UK manufacturing growth. This recent strength has currency traders speculating that the Bank of England will refrain from joining the BOJ and FOMC in a new round of QE.

Chinese manufacturing data showed the fastest pace of appreciation in six months during the month of October. This data suggests the Chinese economy will continue to expand in spite of the recent interest rate increases and gains in the Renminbi. The good news for the Chinese economy was great news for the emerging market currencies as a strong Chinese economy is predicted to keep demand high for the commodities which many of these emerging markets are rich in. The currencies of both Australia and New Zealand also benefitted from the positive reports out of China. The Aussie dollar got within one cent of parity with the US$, and the kiwi hit a two year high. Interest rates and strong commodity prices continue to be a strong wind at the back of these currencies.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will be looking at rising employment and increasing inflation risks during their meeting tomorrow. The recent inflation data has convinced most of the economists that the RBA will leave rates unchanged. But there is still a chance they move rates up, and further rate increases are all but certain in the coming months. Investors will continue to move funds into Australia and New Zealand in order to take advantage of very nice interest rate differentials. Japanese investors have been finding these yields particularly attractive, and have formed a good base for both of these currencies. With US yields looking to stay low, and the global economic expansion continuing to gain a bit of steam, the Aussie dollar and NZ kiwi will continue to present some attractive investment opportunities.

The current global economic situation is really two very different stories: while the US is staring at the possibility of deflation, Asian markets are starting to have to deal with inflationary pressures. Both China and India have been moving their interest rates higher, in direct contradiction to what is happening in the West. While China has grabbed a majority of the spotlight in Asia, India has also been growing at a tremendous pace. India is poised to join China, Japan, and Taiwan as countries with over $300 billion in reserves. These higher reserves have pushed the value of the rupee up, with the largest two month gain in over a year. The rupee still hasn't matched the gains of the Japanese yen and Singapore dollar this year, so the recent moves could prove to be just the beginning of a sustained period of strength for the Indian currency.

And finally, the US isn't the only country which will be getting the results of national elections this week. Brazil's presidential election campaign ended yesterday with Dilma Rouseff securing the Presidential office. Ms. Rouseff was heavily favored, and was the choice of outgoing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. She is expected to continue the policies of outgoing president, which will be good news for the long term prospects of the Brazilian real. Mr. Lula da Silva has kept interest rates high in order to control inflation, and has been successful in reducing government debt. Strong Chinese demand for commodities and a very large interest rate differential with the US should keep the Brazilian real as one of the best performing currencies in the coming year.

To recap, Chuck picked a doozy of a week to be away from the desk, as the US elections and Central bank announcements promise to increase volatility in the currency markets. The US, Japan, and ECB all look to try and keep their currencies down in order to stimulate their economies. Chinese data showed a large pick up boosting demand for commodity based currencies. RBA will likely keep rates unchanged, but there is still the possibility of an increase, and Brazil elects a new President.

Currencies today 11/1/10: American Style: A$ .9885, kiwi .7677, C$ .9811, euro 1.3948, sterling 1.6052, Swiss $1.0116, . European Style: rand 6.9840, krone 5.8395, SEK 6.6525, forint 194.12, zloty 2. 8465, koruna 17.625, RUB 30.858, yen 80.41, sing 1.2917, HKD 7.7522, China 6.6906, pesos 12.3507, BRL 1.6959, dollar index 77.02, Oil $82.18, 10-year 2.59%, Silver $24.97, and Gold.. $1,361.85

That's it for today. It was a beautiful weekend here in the Midwest, and I got to enjoy two beautiful sunrises up at my farm as it was the opening weekend of the duck hunting season here in Missouri. I was able to watch both the Rams and the Blues win home games this weekend. Too bad MIZZOU stumbled on their way to a national championship season, as they were unable to do much vs. cornhuskers up in Nebraska. We didn't have many kids last night trick or treating, I guess it must be a sign of the times, with most families choosing to go to 'organized' trick or treating parties instead of running through the neighborhoods. My two are a bit old for trick or treating, but they both went to friends houses leaving me and my wife to hand out the candy to the few kids who stopped by. The desk will be happy to hear we didn't have my kids stop by, as I always bring all of the leftover candy in to work. Hope everyone has a great start to this volatile week, and a Marvelous Monday.

Chris Gaffney, CFA

Vice President

EverBank World Markets

1-800-926-4922

1-314-647-3837