Daily Pfennig

A free, quick-reading daily e-letter on world currencies, economic trends, and the occasional baseball score.

Daily Pfennig

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  • A New Carry Trade Currency?

    In This Issue..

    * A bias to buy dollars remains...
    * The Fed was warned as far back as 1999!
    * Fujii gets 'the memo'!
    * A ton o' data all around the globe this week!

    Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! My weekend turned out to be quite grand, as all the things I said that would make it special came to pass! My Cardinals clinched their division. My beloved Missouri Tigers won on Friday night, and my little buddy's 8th grade Flyers won their game against their arch rival... WOW!

    Well... Here we go with the last 3 days of September... A month that saw Gold return to $1,000, and the non-dollar currencies all return to levels they held a year ago, having withstood the onslaught of flight to safety trades that benefitted the dollar after the Lehman Bros collapse....
  • N. & S. Korea Exchange Artillery Fire.

    In This Issue.

    * The dollar heats up!

    * Ireland's Gov't to collapse.

    * Eurozone manufacturing soars!

    * Flaherty to balance Canada's budget!

    ...
  • Spending More Money...

    * Turn back the clocks to 1950... * Currencies rally on the day... * Bank of Canada to cut rates today... * Fed Funds to zero? ** Spending More Money... Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! It's raining like cats and dogs outside, and that rain is supposed to turn to snow tonight, so we've got that going for us! Always love that rain to snow bit, as it puts a nice layer of ice under the snow! Well... It looks like the new president wants to spend more money... Yes, President-elect Obama, presented his economic plan yesterday, and before doing so, issued a warning that the economy is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. His plan calls for a pledge to spend the most on infrastructure since the 1950's... Now, let me say this... The Big Boss, Frank Trotter, and I talk about this all the time... To spend money on Financial Institutions and things that don't get used more than once like bullets and bombs, isn't our "fave" way to spend money... But building something that could be used over and over again, well, that makes sense... However, this spending could be coming at the absolute most awful timing, as the Deficits are exploding in front of our eyes, and it certainly isn't as appealing as watching the fireworks display in Vancouver!...
  • Another Jobs Jamboree Friday!

    * A zero rate conspiracy? * Weekly jobless claims head toward 500K... * Turning Japanese... I really think so! * Mr. Yen speaks! ** Jobs Jamboree Friday! Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I hope it turns into a Fantastico Friday, because it's not starting out that way. Technical difficulties would be the term used to describe my morning so far... I don't know if the Pfennig will go out on time this morning, as those "technical difficulties" have me working offline right now. But we'll see, eh? Well, it's a Jobs Jamboree Friday too! This should be quite the Jobs Jamboree too, as the ADP Employment report suggested the other day that this data could be even worse than the forecast -200K job losses for October. There have been more job losses in 2008, than you can shake a stick at, but yet the beat goes on for the dollar. Coming To America is the theme playing out in the currencies... Of which, I've explained over and over again, until I sound like a broken record....
  • Kicking The Can Down The Road.

    In This Issue.

    * Traders back on scent of rate hike.

    * Oil is stuck in tight range.

    * Greece has homework assignment!.

    * Happy Late Birthday to George Washington!

    ...
    Filed under: ,
  • Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation?

    * A bounce in the euro overnight... * Iran tests long range missiles... * Japan's Machine Orders soar! * Is Big Ben giving us a hint? ** Fighting Deflation Instead of Inflation? Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Things settled down a bit yesterday, with the rumors of bailout for Fannie and Freddie Macs fading, and some awful Housing data being swept under the rug. The dollar gained back the ground it had lost to the euro the previous day, and Japan printed a very strong Machine Orders report... And now Iran tests long range missiles... All that and more as we begin our Wednesday... OK, front and center this morning... The Housing data from yesterday. Since the media decided to sweep this under the rug, I thought I would make certain that at least Pfennig Readers were aware of the rot on the Housing vine. The index of Pending Home resales fell -4.7% in April, a much larger decline than the "experts" forecast. I think what you're seeing here is simply that would be buyers are holding off as they expect further declines in prices.....
  • Wooden Arrows?

    * A euro revelation! * House to vote on Bailout... * Yen remains strong... * Jobs Jamboree Friday! ** Wooden Arrows? Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastic Friday, I hope! As the blind man said, as he spit into the wind... It's all coming back to me now... And so it was yesterday morning after I had hit the send button for the Pfennig, a trader friend called to give me some insight, and... After talking to him, it all came back to me now... What the heck is he talking about now? I hear you asking... Well, recall how I and probably all of you too, have been scratching my head and wondering just how in the world the dollar could be rallying in the face of all that's going on, and the bad data to boot. Well, here it is folks, sit back and take a sip of coffee......
  • Catching Up With Richard Duncan...

    In This Issue..

    * Non-dollar currencies give back very little...
    * The Unemployed are remaining unemployed...
    * FOMC puts away the board games today...
    * China invokes a 'Public Morals' defense...

    Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Well, the Fed Head put away the board games today, and make an announcement this afternoon... Yawn... Norway's Norges Bank will also make an announcement with theirs coming this morning. I still contend that the Norges Bank will keep rates unchanged and give a hint as to when their rate hike cycle will begin. If that were to happen as I think, then it would be very bullish for the krone......
  • China Grows at +8.9%!

    In This Issue..

    * Currency rally is reversed overnight!
    * Pay Czar dreams...
    * Brazil may reverse capital inflow tax...
    * An Asian Union?

    Good day... And a Thunderin' Thursday to you! It's raining outside, so... It must be a Thursday! Amazing how many Thursdays have seen rain this fall! The ground isn't the only thing that's getting watered down this morning...

    Front and Center this morning, the euro traded well past 1.50 yesterday afternoon, and drug all the other non-dollar currencies higher as the day went on. But overnight, all that giddiness with seeing the euro over 1.50 for the first time since August of 2008 (and then it was on the way down, instead of this time on the way up!), has been watered down......
  • One Eye On ECB, One Eye On Eurozone Summit.

    In This Issue.

    * Currencies remain in a tight range.

    * Will ECB do 25 or 50 BPS?

    * RBNZ leaves rates unchanged buts goes dovish.

    * Jim Rogers on what the Fed's doing.

    ...
  • Japan Joins The Twin Deficits Club!

    In This Issue.

    * Germany easily sells target on 0% notes.

    * Japan trade deficit hits global growth campers.

    * Germany to talk tough.

    * Canadian Retail Sales today.

    ...
    Filed under: , ,
  • A New Year’s Jobs Jamboree Friday...

    * Will the ADP report be a good indicator? * China to slow treasury purchases? * Gold as a store of wealth... * Dealing with the devil... ** A Jobs Jamboree Friday... Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! A Fantastico Friday, as it is forecast to get to 50 degrees today here in St. Louis. Never mind that tomorrow's high will be 29! It doesn't take away from today! What a trading day in the currencies yesterday... Whew! It's a Jobs Jamboree Friday, so let's not beat around the bush... It's time to Jamboree! Today is the day the Gov't prints the December Jobs Jamboree, and if Wednesday's ADP report did what they said it was going to, and that is change their methodology to mirror the BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) then this morning's Jobs Jamboree will be a nightmare. Of course not the kind of nightmare that the over 2.5 million people that lost jobs in 2008 had! I was once in those numbers, as our old Bank, Mark Twain Bank, was bought by a bigger bank, Mercantile Bank, and Mercantile decided after a few months to perform ethnic cleansing of Mark Twain employees... I called it "my retirement" but with a 3 year old at home and on my lap most of the day, "retirement" couldn't last too long! My point is that you don't know the emptiness and failure you feel when they show you the door... So my thoughts are always with those that lose their jobs......
  • Hard Headed Traders!

    In This Issue.

    * Positive yield currencies get whacked!.

    * But currencies attempt to rebound today.

    * When will Markets admit they were wrong?

    * The Ukrainian Chicken Farm Moment"..

    ...
    Filed under:
  • The US dollar reverses course ...

    In This Issue.

    * Dollar reverses course ...

    * Yen won't copy the '95 increase following Kobe quake ...

    * India's growth to force higher rates? ...

    * Brazil tries to keep a lid on the real ...

    * EU leaders agree on a new and improved bailout ...

    ...
  • The Bailout Lives!

    * The Senate to the rescue? * Dollar rallies big time... * Rumor day... * Consumer Confidence stronger? ** The Bailout Lives! Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! Welcome to October! Or as we say in St. Louis... Rocktober! September went by in a flash, let's hope Rocktober slows down a bit! Well... Monday we had carnage in stocks, and yesterday in currencies, while stocks rebounded. What a difference a day makes! On Monday, the House voted down the Bailout package (doesn't it just get your goat that it's still being referred to as the "rescue plan"?), and yesterday, seeing the collateral damage caused by the "no" vote, Congress decided to try and rescue the bailout plan....

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