Daily Pfennig

In This Issue..

* Dollar reverses sell-off...
* BOE & ECB meet today...
* New Zealand is not Australia...
* Funny accounting...

Good day... And a Tub Thumpin' Thursday to you! It's Tub Thumpin' because it's a Thursday and it's not raining! Yay for us! Well... Not only was I wrong, but the Bloomberg Economic Calendar was wrong too... The FOMC was not a 2-day meeting after all! Just one day, so no time to pull out the board games and cards...

I nailed that FOMC statement yesterday... WOW! You might begin to think that I have some inside info on the Fed Heads, the way I've been able to basically call every move they've made since the beginning of this whole meltdown in August of 2007! But that's not important here... The important thing is that the Fed said that economic growth is not enough to hike rates, and therefore they will keep interest rates at near zero for an 'extended period'...

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In This Issue..

* Risk Aversion boosts dollar...
* U.S. manufacturing is strong...
* More stimulus? Please say it ain't so Joe!
* Thoughts from the Big Boss!

Good day... And a Terrific Tuesday to you! Well, I'm here! Just when you thought I would be gone for the week, and you would get away from my rants, and get the calm Chris Gaffney, the rug gets pulled out from you! I am so bummed! I was told that I could not travel to Cabo for the Sovereign Society's Offshore Advantage Conference, and I was to remain at home, with my leg up, blah, blah, blah... What a crock!

OK, now that we've got that out of the way... Front and Center this morning, we have a very strong dollar rally going on... It began yesterday mid-morning, when things turned on one thin dime. First, we had the U.S. Manufacturing Index rise in September and the Trading Theme kicked in with the dollar getting sold on the good news for the economy... But then a strange thing happened on the way to the forum. Everyone began to fear what's been going on in Banking... Friday, the 115th bank failed this year, and suddenly, traders, investors, hedge fund dudes, and everyone else, got a case of the flu... Not the 'pandemic' H1N1 flu... This is the 'chicken flu'... Chicken to continue to takes risks in the face of a banking problems... Well, to think of it, maybe, just maybe, it's not the 'chicken flu' but the 'prudent flu'!...

In This Issue..

* Dollar gets sold after GDP report
* High yielders get bought!
* German Retail Sales decline...
* Real has wild swings!

Good day... And a Happy Friday to one and all! I can't believe how hard it rained here yesterday... Unbelievable! And me, with my cane, and not able to run, was stuck in it going from the car... Absolutely soaked! If I were a kid, I would have thought that to be fun! But, I'm not... It's still raining this morning too! UGH! Let's hope it stops in time for the Trick-or-Treaters!

OK... Well the rain fell on the dollar's parade yesterday too! And, just like I thought it would do... The dollar got sold like funnel cakes at a state fair, once the U.S. 3rd QTR GDP report printed... The dollar rally was stopped in its tracks, which meant that the "trading theme" that rewards the dollar when things look bad in the U.S. and punishes it when things look good, which is completely opposite of what it should do fundamental wise, was still in place!...

In This Issue..

* The dollar continues to hammer!
* Jim Rogers on the dollar rally...
* C. Fred Bergsten talks of a dollar alternative...
* Lord Monckton's thoughts...

Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! It's still raining here... Quite frankly, I don't know how people that live in rainy areas do it! I don't mind rainy days, as long as they are sprinkled in with the days of sunshine!

Well... The dollar rally that began for a number of rumored reasons continued on yesterday... Remember when I said on Monday that the data this week should show us that the economy is healing somewhat, which would be bad for the dollar? Well, that thought got cold water thrown on it yesterday when Consumer Confidence surprisingly declined last month...

You know how I like to question just what people that were surveyed for this Consumer Confidence report are so confident about? Well, apparently, the Conference Board surveyed the wrong people this month! Consumer confidence in the U.S. declined in October to 47.7 versus expectations of a 53.5 reading. Both consumers' perceptions of current conditions and their expectations for the future declined. Hmmm......

In This Issue..

* Leading indicators up, but employment down...
* 11 million new jobs in China...
* Pound sterling gets pounded...
* A Great Day for EverBank...

Good day...and happy Friday! It has been a fairly busy week here at EverBank, with the issuance of another big BRIC MarketSafe CD, the maturity of another MarketSafe, and a big acquisition (more on that later). While things were a bit crazy at EverBank, the currency markets were fairly uneventful. The dollar started the day off with a move up after a positive report on US leading indicators, but it gave back most of the gains as the trading day wore on. At the end of the day, only one currency moved more than 1% vs. the greenback, with the pound sterling dropping almost 1.5%.

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In This Issue..

* Real leads Commodity Currencies to the woodshed!
* Niall Ferguson speaks his mind...
* BOC leaves rates and statement unchanged...
* Bollard gives the green light!

Good day... And a Wonderful Wednesday to you! How many people out there know about "network neutrality"? Well, if you don't know, you're about to find out tomorrow, when it will be decided upon... I'm not going to get into it, because after you find out what it is you'll know why I didn't explain... All I'll say is that this is just another thing that's flying below the radar that's about to be thrown in our laps...

OK... Well... Yesterday, after signing off and hitting the 'send button' for the Pfennig, I saw a story that shot across the desk, and then a follow up was sent to me by Don Ries later in the morning. The story was about the Brazilian Gov't imposing a 2% tax on capital inflows... This was done in an attempt to slow down the Brazilian economy by slowing down the "hot money" that's going into the Brazilian stock market by foreigners... Talk about throwing a cat among the pigeons!...

In This Issue..

* Non-dollar currencies rally...
* Euros and Aussie dollars lead the pack...
* $1.42 Trillion Deficit for 2009!
* TIC's data gets ignored again!

Good day... And a Marvelous Monday to you! Another 'lost' weekend for our college and professional football teams! UGH! The sun finally came out this weekend. YAHOO! It felt so good to be in the sun again... The TICs data was something that needed to be dealt with on Friday, but once again the markets ignored it... I'm telling you, this smells like, walks like, and talks like a gag order... OK... Let's get going this Marvelous Monday!

The non-dollar currencies all drifted on Friday, with the dollar seeing a bit of buying... But that's all been thrown to the curb this morning, as the non-dollar currencies, for the most part, are in rally mode VS the dollar.

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